Update on the battle between the USA and China for global dominance.

1. China accounts for ~20% of all science and engineering papers globally, more than the US
2. The papers published are increasingly among the most cited in the world, no longer just replication and fraud.

🧵
3. China graduates significantly more STEM PhDs than the United States and the gap is widening.
4. Chinese students who attend foreign universities are increasingly returning to china for work, reversing their brain drain.
5. Chinese universities are increasingly offering big money bounties to attract the best international researchers.
6. For many fields, it is easier to do research in China. No complaints from animal-rights activists, fewer restrictions on private medical data.
7. The Chinese equivalent of the National Science Foundation (NSF), the NSFC, has a budget that is nearly at the level of the NSF's; it's probably higher at purchasing power parity.
IMO, China has some obstacles between it and become the dominant science and tech power (language, bad and increasingly inaccurate reputation for fraud and low quality of life, no immigration and declining population), but these weaknesses are mitigated by problems in the US.
The US has slowed its immigration, isn't retaining its best immigrants, remote has made global innovation possible, lacks domestic supply chains/manufacturing, has poor public education particularly in math/science, and is developing a nascent reputation as a lawless state.
Whether it's the recent successful hypersonic missile or the apparently first of its kind laser satellite communication they pulled off, China is defying its reputation as a "can only copy" country that poses no threat to US science and tech. I've seen their improvement with my
own eyes over the past decade.

Meanwhile, the USA increasingly stares at its own navel, blissfully unaware to how much it is falling behind, but hey back-to-back world champs, we always win in the end right?

Right?

/thread

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More from @Molson_Hart

5 Dec
I don't give money to charity.

I don't like charity.

I think it's massively overrated, especially in the United States.

Here is why:
The stated reason for charity is to help others, but in reality, most charity is actually about helping yourself, eg to signal virtue, repair your reputation, put your name on a building for status, establish that you're ina group, or at best to make yourself feel better.
There are too many tax tricks associated with charity in the United States.

If you make a big cash windfall, set up your own charity, donate all the money to it, and don't pay any taxes until you want to do a withdrawal.

That's not in the spirit of the intention of the law.
Read 14 tweets
4 Dec
Contrary to popular belief, I predict companies will unplug noncritical SAAS services in a recession.

SAAS is mostly cloud based today and the cloud was post 2008. Most SAAS has never seen a recession.

This and SAAS not having reached market saturation make it’s revenue

1/2
appear more stable than it is actually.

If I invent a new product in 1929, it doesn’t matter that 1931 is the depression, I’ll sell more that year than I did during 1929 boom times when our product was barely on the market.

E-commerce grew in 2009 & 2010, consumer spending

2/n
did not.

SAAS, is running out of virgin customers so when a recession hits, the monthly recurring revenue will not pay the saas vendors like first lien debt unless it’s absolutely critical software, which will also take a hit. See SAP’s revenue in 2009.

3/3
Read 5 tweets
4 Dec
I feel possessed to make a short list of prominent people I am bullish and bearish on.

If I'm bearish, I think their reputations and renown will rise. People will view them more favorably.

If I'm bearish, I think their reputation will worsen and they may end up disgraced.

1/n
Bearish

2/n
Bullish

3/n
Read 9 tweets
4 Dec
Most prime customers who see Amazon sellers complain just think “don’t know what these guys are talking about. Amazon is great.”

Here’s a short little of thread of some of things they’ve done to me, my company, employees, and our account over the years.

1/n
1. Accidentally deleted my account
2. Wrongfully accused us of review and search rank manipulation
3. Wrongly identified our hero sku as being manipulated so they put it as the 32nd result for all search keywords
4. Refused to act when my employee was counterfeiting me

2/n
because we didn’t have a registered tm.
5. Refused to act when we got 1 star review bombed and upvoted. I told them I’d go non-anonymous to the press (at the time no one had done that with an active account) and I did.

I have a huge folder in my cloud drive of more shit

3/n
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec
Maybe this is already obvious to markets with Amazon becoming the biggest domestic package carrier in the USA this year, but Amazon's vertical integration gives them huge advantages over UPS and FedEx.

Some examples:

1. They have delivery instructions that are otherwise

1/n
just in the driver's head. What do you think happens when they switch drivers for a day? Higher chance of misdelivery resulting in lower customer satisfaction and higher cost for UPS/FedEx
2. They have the best data on which addresses are more likely to result in

2/n
misdelivery and can ship those packages USPS/FedEx/UPS
3. Direct customer relationship allows them to send photos of where the packages are, again increasing customer satisfaction + lowering cost
4. Can use Ring + machine learning to verify if customer received package

3/n
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec
How real you want to be on Twitter is a really interesting dynamic question.

On one hand, I’m sure I could maximize the number of followers I have by restricting my tweets to only content that is beneficial to my followers.

But on the other hand…

1/n
That is:

1. A lot of soul-crushing work. I don’t write listicles for buzzfeed for a reason.
2. You quickly blow your load ie you run out of things to say
3. It’s a self-imposed prison. If you only tweet e-commerce “value” threads and then one day you slip up and write

2/n
something that is woke or racist, you lose 50% of your followers.

It’s very fragile.

I don’t really have an answer to this question on how to optimize but tweeting a mix of:

- what’s in my head
- what I think helps people
- endless antivaccine fear-mongering

Works.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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