Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
@BurggrabenH
Dec 5, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
EU Covid data make a strong case for vaccines (among others), i.e Moderna, BionTech / Pfizer, AstraZeneca and J&J.

Short thread.
EU is 69% vaccinated, starting mid January 2021.
648m doses were adminstrated, 308m vaccinations completed on a total population of 447m.
It had 3 waves, with 9.4% death in first, 1.83% in 2nd & 0.84% death in percentage of Covid-19 cases in the current wave.

2/...
Take Germany with a population of 83m, Europe's largest. It currently goes through a record Delta case wave (Omicron only just arrived), but so far it only had 0.48% death on 2.4m cases in 3rd wave. How was this for the first two waves?

3/...Source: Bloomberg
Quite different! Vaccine works. But not just vaccine. Clearly, the quality of the medical support matters too as we illustrated below.

4/...
Now Portugal: It is 87% vaccinated, EU's best rate. Below the approved vaccine makers for Portgual which are the exact same as for Germany and the EU at large. Of course, countries may administrate different mixes for the below, subject to availability.

5/...
What are the results for Portugal so far? It has a slightly higher death rate of 0.60%, despite a 19% higher vaccination rate. So clearly, the medical system and potentially other factors (statistics; population health; etc) matters at the margin too.

6/...
Now Romania with a population of 20m. It has a vaccination rate of only 39% (only BUL is lower) & just completed a Delta wave. The result?
3.23% dealth rate! Also note, ROM is known for its lagging healthcare system which is why the EU had to emergency assist in October.

7/...
Meanwhile, Poland - another Eastern European member - has the exact same case count (so far) with its ongoing Delta wave but "only" 1.3% death rate so far.
Why? Well, one reason is its 55% vaccination rate vs Romania's 38%. Note: Poland has 38m people.

8/...
My final example (but the message is true for all EU member state) is Finland. It has a population of 5.5m with a 76% vaccination rate and a sold healthcare system. It also goes, like most EU countries, through a record Delta wave right since 3 weeks. The result so far?

9/9 Thx

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Alexander Stahel 🌻

Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Nov 3
Let's talk China: Episode 5 of 7

In this episode, we discuss China's 2nd of 5 economic paths it can follow.

This episode will also focus on Xi the leader. To understand Xi means to better understand China's economic path forward.

1/n #China Image
Can China replace malinvestment with more consumption?

Answer: Maybe a little bit & over a long time frame, but President Xi does not want to focus on this path. Instead, he wants to implement his socialist utopia.

2/n Image
Yes, China’s rising entrepreneurs were welcomed by the Communist Party for at least two decades. But all of that is in reverse.

Under Xi Jinping, China has moved full circle: from low growth & low freedom in the pre-reform era back towards something similar today.

3/n Image
Read 7 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Oct 29
Let's talk China, shall we? Episode 4 of 7

In this episode, we discuss China's investment-led growth model & the first of 5 economic paths China can follow.

As you would expect, also this episode is full of Chinese characteristics!

1/n #China Image
Starting in 1990s, China’s economic engine has been fueled by capital investments.

Its central planning bureau defined GDP targets, picked winners and drove growth from debt-driven capital formations (green line).

2/n Image
Has any other nation tried this before, ever? Not to our knowledge.

We checked at ALL G20 economies and their respective growth models for past 70 years. 45% capital formation share is a unique experiment in economic history.

3/n Image
Read 6 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Oct 20
Let's talk China, shall we?

Over the past 3 years, we made some controversial calls in commodities. We decided to exit our oil holding in Aug 2022, we went short natgas in early 2023 or called for copper to go lower in May.

Why? Because we have an egde on China.

1/n #China Image
Yes, mainstream media picked up pace on important issues facing China today.

Most came to understand that the property bubble burst, that the economy is slowing, that geopolitical frictions are emerging, that there is too much debt.

But do they understand the underlying forces that drive these issues?

2/n
While the majority of these facts are known, most Western observers, investors & industrialists do not fully appreciate their interdependence & the structural changes that are unfolding in China today.

For too long, the CCP had their back.

3/n
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Sep 21
Pre-2020, Gold had one marginal buyer, that being gold-backed ETFs.

Today, gold has at least 3 marginal buyers that can overlap or alternate each other. They are:

- Gold backed Western ETFs (which buy, sell or hold based on US real rates);

- Central Banks seeking higher gold reserves (China; India; Thailand; Vietnam; Qatar, KSA or even Poland) for geopolitical & other reasons;

- Chinese & other Asian wholesale or retail market participants and professional speculators;

Who bought most last? India!

Why? The government cut import duties on gold by 9% at end of July, triggering a renewed surge in demand. “The impact of the duty cut was unprecedented, it was incredible,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus in London. “It really brought consumers in.”

At least for now, there seems to be always somebody.

1/nImage
Note however that Chinese retail buying has slowed down recently, as best illustrated by the Shanghai gold premium over international prices.

I will elaborate on the Chinese retail clients more soon.

2/n Image
However, professional Chinese speculators have increased their futures positions somewhat again. Who is the better indicator of what comes next, retail or the pros? IDK

3/3 Thx Image
Read 5 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Sep 4
In 2023, I said I will tweet less about oil and I will stick to this promise but today I make an exception and will break the promise as we enter a period of more volatility for oil...

So let's talk about OPEC and Saudi market share. It's decision making time.

1/n
Step by step:

The Saudis decided to keep oil from falling <$75 for 2y by cutting overproportionally in their OPEC+ quota context.

They have cap for 12mbpd but produce 9mbpd. It was 10.5mbpd in 2022. Pick a number but they are 15-20% below their fair share.

2/n Image
Why did they do so?

Likely because of bad advisers. There is a whole crew of supply gloomers out there charging clients money to claim the Permian or US shale is about to roll over.

Well, it isn't.

3/n US weekly DOE crude oil Image
Read 14 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Jun 18
Let me share some real time data on the EU natgas market that are hard to get.

European gas consumption for 28 countries matches last's years to the cubic meter (Oct 2022 - Oct 2023 = Year 2022).

However, consumption remains 17% below 2019/20 season.

Is there a supply issue? Rubbish. The global LNG market is oversupplied from every corner; EU storages will be filled by end of Aug where we sit. We have too much gas.

#TTF 1/4 (in mcm/day and YTD)Image
Three factors matter why there is less consumption vs 2019/20 season:

1) Milder weather: 70% of total consumption is temperature related. Temperatures are milder, thus Europe consumes 14% less vs 2019/20.

Is that permenant? It sure looks like a trend where I sit. But climate scientists can answer that best.

Households Consumption; 2/4Image
2) Less power generation: Europe replaces more and more natgas in the grid with solar & wind and in the case of France with better capacity utilisation of its nuclear fleet. That adds up...!

Selected Power Consumption: 7 countries; 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(