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Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
@BurggrabenH
Dec 5, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
EU Covid data make a strong case for vaccines (among others), i.e Moderna, BionTech / Pfizer, AstraZeneca and J&J.

Short thread.
EU is 69% vaccinated, starting mid January 2021.
648m doses were adminstrated, 308m vaccinations completed on a total population of 447m.
It had 3 waves, with 9.4% death in first, 1.83% in 2nd & 0.84% death in percentage of Covid-19 cases in the current wave.

2/...
Take Germany with a population of 83m, Europe's largest. It currently goes through a record Delta case wave (Omicron only just arrived), but so far it only had 0.48% death on 2.4m cases in 3rd wave. How was this for the first two waves?

3/...Source: Bloomberg
Quite different! Vaccine works. But not just vaccine. Clearly, the quality of the medical support matters too as we illustrated below.

4/...
Now Portugal: It is 87% vaccinated, EU's best rate. Below the approved vaccine makers for Portgual which are the exact same as for Germany and the EU at large. Of course, countries may administrate different mixes for the below, subject to availability.

5/...
What are the results for Portugal so far? It has a slightly higher death rate of 0.60%, despite a 19% higher vaccination rate. So clearly, the medical system and potentially other factors (statistics; population health; etc) matters at the margin too.

6/...
Now Romania with a population of 20m. It has a vaccination rate of only 39% (only BUL is lower) & just completed a Delta wave. The result?
3.23% dealth rate! Also note, ROM is known for its lagging healthcare system which is why the EU had to emergency assist in October.

7/...
Meanwhile, Poland - another Eastern European member - has the exact same case count (so far) with its ongoing Delta wave but "only" 1.3% death rate so far.
Why? Well, one reason is its 55% vaccination rate vs Romania's 38%. Note: Poland has 38m people.

8/...
My final example (but the message is true for all EU member state) is Finland. It has a population of 5.5m with a 76% vaccination rate and a sold healthcare system. It also goes, like most EU countries, through a record Delta wave right since 3 weeks. The result so far?

9/9 Thx

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Jun 18
Let me share some real time data on the EU natgas market that are hard to get.

European gas consumption for 28 countries matches last's years to the cubic meter (Oct 2022 - Oct 2023 = Year 2022).

However, consumption remains 17% below 2019/20 season.

Is there a supply issue? Rubbish. The global LNG market is oversupplied from every corner; EU storages will be filled by end of Aug where we sit. We have too much gas.

#TTF 1/4 (in mcm/day and YTD)Image
Three factors matter why there is less consumption vs 2019/20 season:

1) Milder weather: 70% of total consumption is temperature related. Temperatures are milder, thus Europe consumes 14% less vs 2019/20.

Is that permenant? It sure looks like a trend where I sit. But climate scientists can answer that best.

Households Consumption; 2/4Image
2) Less power generation: Europe replaces more and more natgas in the grid with solar & wind and in the case of France with better capacity utilisation of its nuclear fleet. That adds up...!

Selected Power Consumption: 7 countries; 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Apr 9
Nvidia sold a lot of new AI chips over the past 18 months and is forecast to grow its unit sales aggressively.

But does everybody understand what such forecast would mean for electricity demand in the West?

A 🧵

1/n #AI
Step by step:

The average Swiss household consumes 4000-5000kWh of power pa. It is similar for most Western HH.

Let’s assume a 4-person household consumes 5000kWh per annum.

That translates into 570 Watt per hour (5000 x 1000 / 365 days / 24h)…

2/n Image
The latest version of Nvidia’s processors for AI purposes is called H100 SXM.

How much power does it consume?

Answer: 700 Watt (per hour).

In other words, one processor will consume 20% more power than a 4-person household consumes pa!

3/n Image
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Mar 12
India likes a "GOOD" deal - also in crude oil - and is about to teach Russia a lesson what that means.

Spoiler 1: it's not a pretty one!
Spoiler 2: China & Turkey will learn quickly..!

Let's look at the Indian-Russo crude oil bromance.

1/x Thread
Before the invasion in Feb 2022, Russia exported some 2.8mbpd (55%) of its 5.5mbpd crude to Europe by way of pipeline (Druzhba) & sea transportation (seaborne).

But not just crude oil...

2/x Image
Russia also sold products such as diesel or jet to Europe for a total of 1.4mbpd in petroleum product exports.

In other worlds, G7 sanctioned as introduced in Dec 2022 required 4.2+mbpd of crude & products to be re-shuffeled in globally. Big numbers!

3/x Image
Read 18 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Jan 16
For now, Red Sea disruptions due to Houthi attacking commercial vessels randomly remains a ton-mile story, not a crude oil story.

Within different shipping segments the picture of diverting cargo around the Suez Canal remains a Container Vessel story, to a less extent also a Product Tanker & Crude Oil tanker story.

1/5 Some high frequency data...!
Container Vessels owners have been the most consequent in diverting cargo.

Since Nov, the number of container vessels crossing the Suez Canal has collapsed by 80% in both directions.

2/n Image
Crude Oil tankers from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia; UAE; Iraq; Kuwait; Qatar or Oman) to Europe are also lower but our high frequency data does not yet show a similar collapse.

It also nicely illustrates how changing Russian crude flows (Urals diverted to India & China and away from Europe) have increased traffic through the Suez Canal - good for Egypt as Russian dark fleet vessels will or cannot seek an alternative route to ship oil from the Baltics to India.

3/n @OKalleklevImage
Read 5 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Jan 7
Brazil is is an interesting microcosm to study in the oil industry.

It's a large, growing consumer of petroleum products. It's the 8th largest producer of crude oil in Dec 2023 as well as a large producer & consumer of biofuels.

Most importantly, it's energy agency reports the data in detail & timely (unlike most countries globally).

1/n
Brazil's resource wealth (mainly offshore) is well documented but it struggled for years to follow through.

Finally, it does with an exit rate of 3.9mbpd of oil production in 2023. Only the US, SA, RUS, CAD, IRQ, CN & IRN (incl condi; in this order) produced more that month. That's 50% growth since Jan 2018!

2/nImage
Better still, most such production growth reaches the international market. In Dec 2023, Brazil exported 1.7mbpd of crude oil - an ATH.

Remember, in oil net exports is the key number to measure.

3/n @UrbanKaoboy Image
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🌻 Profile picture
Nov 8, 2023
Shall we look at the European NatGas market together?

Will Europe have to freeze this winter, after much mild weather luck last winter?
Will TTF drag coal prices up as last winter?

Thread
1/n
Our rolling forecast upfront for those of you with a little ADD:

Best-estimate today, Europe will exit the winter 23/24 in March at or around 40% storage levels (red line) which suggests TTF doesn't have to spike, ceteris paribus. Is it a bear? Neither.

Let me explain.

2/n Image
Natgas has unique characteristics for a commodity:

Supply is inelastic while demand is highly ELASTIC: Colder temps >> demand goes up exponentially & vice versa.

Not all demand is equal but heating buildings (HH & retail demand) is 65-70% of winter demand (Oct-Mar).

3/n Image
Read 16 tweets

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