1/6
You have to be very careful about using year-on-year data after a year like 2020. According to Reuters (and lots of other news agencies) "China's exports growth lost steam in November, pressured by a strong yuan, weakening demand and higher costs."
reuters.com/world/china/ch…
You have to be very careful about using year-on-year data after a year like 2020. According to Reuters (and lots of other news agencies) "China's exports growth lost steam in November, pressured by a strong yuan, weakening demand and higher costs."
reuters.com/world/china/ch…
2/6
But this isn't true at all. Chinese exports grew more rapidly month on month in November than they did in October, and in fact Chinese exports grew at one of the fastest month-on-month paces in two years.
But this isn't true at all. Chinese exports grew more rapidly month on month in November than they did in October, and in fact Chinese exports grew at one of the fastest month-on-month paces in two years.
3/6
Exports also grew more rapidly over a two-year period in November than they did in October. That is why I'd argue that export growth actually accelerated in November rather than "lost steam". So why are Reuters and so many others saying otherwise?
Exports also grew more rapidly over a two-year period in November than they did in October. That is why I'd argue that export growth actually accelerated in November rather than "lost steam". So why are Reuters and so many others saying otherwise?
4/6
Probably because according to the customs data, exports grew 22% year on year in November, versus 27% in October. Because 22% seems a lot less than 27%, the assumption is that export growth must have slowed.
Probably because according to the customs data, exports grew 22% year on year in November, versus 27% in October. Because 22% seems a lot less than 27%, the assumption is that export growth must have slowed.
5/6
But this growth difference has nothing do do with slower export growth in November. it is more than fully explained by the fact that exports actually declined in October 2020 relative to September 2020, before surging again in November.
But this growth difference has nothing do do with slower export growth in November. it is more than fully explained by the fact that exports actually declined in October 2020 relative to September 2020, before surging again in November.
6/6
More than 100% of the "decline" in the growth rate, in other words, is explained by what happened last year, not by what happened this year. Export growth was actually stronger than expected.
More than 100% of the "decline" in the growth rate, in other words, is explained by what happened last year, not by what happened this year. Export growth was actually stronger than expected.
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