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Laura Rozen

Dec 7, 2021 • 13 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

🧵New from me: Iran defends itself from charges of overreach as parties prepare to return to Vienna for talks on trying to revive the nuclear pact Thursday diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

There is *a lot* of new reporting in this, incl. an interview with a US official explaining what he sees as a potential US decision point possibly coming towards end of the first quarter next year based on shrinking of Iran breakout to “margin of error” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

“The Fordow move combines the accumulation of 20% enriched uranium and the use of advanced IR-6 centrifuges in a facility that is difficult to target,” he said.

“The concern is that in the first quarter of next year, Iran breakout will start to approach the margin of error…We have never been this close,” the US official said, referring to the shortening Iranian breakout time, which JCPOA extended to 1 year. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

“We certainly have the capability to put more time on the clock though military or other means. The threshold point for that is TBD.” If credible evidence they are moving towards producing weapons-grade material – or other weaponization work” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

Short of that? “I think if we get into the latter part of the [first quarter], close to the margin of error, we will reach a decision point,” the US official said. “A decision will be made.” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

Meantime, CIA chief Bill Burns said yesterday the agency does *not* “see any evidence that Iran's Supreme Leader has made a decision to move to weaponize," Burns told WSJ CEO council. He spoke as Mossad director David Barnea was reported to be in DC diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

@citrinowicz

Ex Israel military intel analyst @citrinowicz said he did not think Iran was seeking to produce a nuclear weapon, but demonstrate a threshold ability to do so, as a way to fortify itself. “I don’t think they want a bomb. …diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

“I think what they want is to be as advanced as they can in enrichment…to show that they are highly fortified…&v close to being able to acquire the fissile material for a nuclear bomb, even if they don’t have a bomb, they have the capability to do so.”

diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

Re: Iran’s recent move to use advanced centrifuges to enrich to 20% at Fordow, Citrinowicz assessed Iranian side is trying to show the other parties the cost to them of Iran not being enticed to return back to full implementation of JCPOA.

diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

“In their mind…they are highlighting the price of not being in the JCPOA. [If the JCPOA collapses], ‘We are not obligated to do anything,’” Citrinowicz characterized the Iranian negotiators’ possible mindset. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

e.g. Iran wants to show the other parties it thinks they need jcpoa more than it does

While Citroniwicz does not believe Iran wants to cross threshold to nuclear weapon, he says in current situation, there is a huge possibility for miscalculation.
“If there is not a return to JCPOA, I think we are entering a very, very unstable situation,” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

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More from @lrozen

Laura Rozen

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May 24

🧵 “The Court considers that, in conformity with its obligations under the Genocide Convention, Israel must immediately halt its military offensive, & any other action in the Rafah Governorate,
which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.”

“In its Orders of 26 January 2024 and 28 March 2024, the Court expressed its grave concern over the fate of the hostages abducted during the attack in Israel on 7 October 2023 and held since
then by Hamas & other armed groups, & called for their immediate & unconditional release.

“The Court finds it deeply troubling that many of these hostages remain in captivity and reiterates its call for their immediate and unconditional release.”

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Laura Rozen

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May 10

🧵Excerpts of US State Dept report to Congress concerning Israel’s compliance with NSM-20. (I typed these quickly, apologies for typoes in advance.):

“Israel has, upon request, shared some information on specific incidents implicating IHL, some details of its targeting choices, and some battle damage assessments. Although we have gained insight into Israel’s procedures and rules, we do not have complete information on how these processes are implemented. Israel has not shared complete information to verify whether U.S. defense articles covered under NSM-20 were specifically used in actions that have been alleged as violations of IHL or IHRL in Gaza, or in the West Bank and East Jerusalem during the period of this report.

“Limited information has been shared to date in response to USG inquiries under review to determine whether U.S. munitions were used in incidents involving civilian harm. However, certain Israel-operated systems are entirely U.S.-origin (e.g., crewed attack aircraft) and are likely to have been involved in incidents that raise concerns about Israel’s IHL compliance.

“One specific area of concern is the impact of Israel’s military operations on humanitarian actors. Despite regular engagement from humanitarian actors and repeated USG interventions with Israeli officials on deconfliction/coordination procedures, the IDF has struck humanitarian workers and facilities.

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Laura Rozen

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May 9

🧵State Dept spox Matt Miller: “We actually think that a Rafah operation would weaken Israel's position both in these talks and writ large. …a major military operation in Rafah would further weaken Israel’s standing in the world, would further create distance from its partners in the region, who actually share Israel's goal of seeing Hamas defeated and want to see a Hamas replaced with a different governance structure in Gaza.”

And then also, if you look, just look at Hamas’ track record. They've never cared about Palestinian civilian lives. If they did, they would not have launched these attacks in the first place, which they knew would produce a response. They wouldn't hide behind civilians, and they would have agreed to a ceasefire long ago so I just don't think that that that the argument holds any water with respect to the talks itself.

They (the Government of Israel) have made quite clear they intend to conduct an operation, the operation they have conducted so far has been limited. They have talked, quite openly about conducting a major military operation in Rafah. We are opposed to that, but we'll see what happens. We have made quite clear, we don't want to see it happen. We continued and I should say, we do continue to engage with them about other options that they can pursue.

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Laura Rozen

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May 9

🧵NSC’s John Kirby: The President and his team have been clear for several weeks that we do not support a major ground operation in Rafah, where more than a million people are sheltering with nowhere safe to go.

The President has said that publicly, and he has communicated that repeatedly and straightforwardly to Prime Minister Netanyahu.

We proposed alternative methods of defeating Hamas that do not involve a major ground operation in Rafah, and those conversations with the Israeli government are ongoing.

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Laura Rozen

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May 8

State Dept. Spox Matt Miller on US holding back 2000 and 500 pound bombs from Israel: We have paused one shipment of near term assistance, and we are reviewing others.

Miller on Rafah: We do not believe Israel has presented a credible humanitarian plan that would account for both the potential harm to civilian life…of an operation in such a crowded area, or for properly evacuating and caring for the over million people who were there.

Miller: not going to speak to what actions we might take in the future. We make these assessments day by day based on what is happening on the ground and make our appropriate policy determinations based on those facts.

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