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Laura Rozen Profile picture
@lrozen
Dec 7, 2021 • 13 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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🧵New from me: Iran defends itself from charges of overreach as parties prepare to return to Vienna for talks on trying to revive the nuclear pact Thursday diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
There is *a lot* of new reporting in this, incl. an interview with a US official explaining what he sees as a potential US decision point possibly coming towards end of the first quarter next year based on shrinking of Iran breakout to “margin of error” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
“The Fordow move combines the accumulation of 20% enriched uranium and the use of advanced IR-6 centrifuges in a facility that is difficult to target,” he said. Image
“The concern is that in the first quarter of next year, Iran breakout will start to approach the margin of error…We have never been this close,” the US official said, referring to the shortening Iranian breakout time, which JCPOA extended to 1 year. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
“We certainly have the capability to put more time on the clock though military or other means. The threshold point for that is TBD.” If credible evidence they are moving towards producing weapons-grade material – or other weaponization work” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
Short of that? “I think if we get into the latter part of the [first quarter], close to the margin of error, we will reach a decision point,” the US official said. “A decision will be made.” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
Meantime, CIA chief Bill Burns said yesterday the agency does *not* “see any evidence that Iran's Supreme Leader has made a decision to move to weaponize," Burns told WSJ CEO council. He spoke as Mossad director David Barnea was reported to be in DC diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
Ex Israel military intel analyst @citrinowicz said he did not think Iran was seeking to produce a nuclear weapon, but demonstrate a threshold ability to do so, as a way to fortify itself. “I don’t think they want a bomb. …diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
“I think what they want is to be as advanced as they can in enrichment…to show that they are highly fortified…&v close to being able to acquire the fissile material for a nuclear bomb, even if they don’t have a bomb, they have the capability to do so.”

diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
Re: Iran’s recent move to use advanced centrifuges to enrich to 20% at Fordow, Citrinowicz assessed Iranian side is trying to show the other parties the cost to them of Iran not being enticed to return back to full implementation of JCPOA.

diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
“In their mind…they are highlighting the price of not being in the JCPOA. [If the JCPOA collapses], ‘We are not obligated to do anything,’” Citrinowicz characterized the Iranian negotiators’ possible mindset. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
e.g. Iran wants to show the other parties it thinks they need jcpoa more than it does
While Citroniwicz does not believe Iran wants to cross threshold to nuclear weapon, he says in current situation, there is a huge possibility for miscalculation.
“If there is not a return to JCPOA, I think we are entering a very, very unstable situation,” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

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More from @lrozen

Laura Rozen Profile picture
Mar 25
This is one of the striking findings of the polls seen last few days.
A majority of Americans do not think the war with Iran makes them or the world safer, but less safe. (And 1/5 thinks it makes no difference.)

poll.qu.edu/poll-release?r…Image
(one of the big differences between American and Israeli public opinion on the Iran war.) For a majority of Americans, it is not just that they don’t want to do it. They don’t think it advances security.)
Reuters/Ipsos (4-day poll completed 3/23):
46% of respondents think war on Iran will make U.S. less safe;
Only 26% said it would make country safer;
rest said no effect.

archive.ph/eq4A9Image
Read 5 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Mar 12
Sarah Rogers has used her State Dept platform primarily to try to boost the far right AfD party in Germany and far right parties in UK, in seeming alignment with Elon Musk and other anti EU regulation tech bros. She has shown minimal interest in free speech in places like Iran
Here was one of her more startling State Department posts on Twitter, discussing “‘Jewish’ NGO tentacles,” “rapist hordes,” in a State Dept post that quote tweeted an account called the National Socialists of Tik Tok. Image
More from her recent TL, almost entirely focused on promoting anti EU far right parties and organizations in Europe and free speech for neo Nazi adjacent types. Image
Read 4 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Mar 11
🧵This is a lie, the mediator, “Persian Gulf diplomat” has said. “I can categorically state that this is inaccurate. He was explaining that all of this material can all go away should we have a deal and Iran can be relieved from sanctions.” ms.now/news/exclusive… x.com/acyn/status/20…
I reported, and it is a serious issue, that Witkoff and Kushner DID NOT UNDERSTAND the Iranian proposal or nuclear issues and continue not to understand. diplomatic.substack.com/p/was-diplomac…
You need to understand your opponent, you need to bring experts to help explain what you don’t know. Both on Iran & nuke issues. Kushner and Witkoff DID NOT UNDERSTAND an offer that may not have been good enough but was serious. It is like they had a 50% translation
diplomatic.substack.com/p/was-diplomac…
Read 12 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Jan 14
🧵Powerful Star Tribune editorial: Minnesota is under siege:
“What we are witnessing is the storming of the state by the federal government.
Fraud investigation and immigration enforcement in Minnesota have become a pretext for a sweeping federal show of force that bears little relationship to the problem it claims to address.”
“It is indiscriminate. Noncitizen immigrants without legal status make up roughly 1.5% of Minnesota’s population — less than half the national average. Nothing about that figure justifies the scale, posture or tactics now widely deployed.
“The fatal shooting of 37yo Renee Good, an American citizen..., by an ICE agent on Jan. 7 brought into brutal focus what many communities had already bn experiencing: an enforcement strategy that erodes trust & often puts innocent people & lawful protesters in extreme danger.
Read 11 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Dec 22, 2025
👀🧵 “Rubio was scheduled to attend peace talks with Ukrainian officials in Switzerland, but Witkoff had set off early in what some officials saw as a bid to beat him to the punch…, Witkoff did not communicate his travel plans to Rubio & other State Dep. officials, the 3 sources said, in what they perceived as a move to allow Witkoff to negotiate with Ukraine in a way he saw fit.

nbcnews.com/politics/white…
“It was not the first time U.S. officials had seen Witkoff’s actions as an attempt to make an end-run around Rubio. …latest example of a long-running rift between the two senior figures…with sharply different views about how to end the war in Ukraine and how much the U.S. should trust Russia’s promises.”
“Late last month, days after the Geneva talks, Witkoff arranged a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Florida. Rubio became aware of the planned session only when the Ukrainians asked his team about it, according to a U.S. official and a person familiar with the incident.”
Read 7 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Dec 15, 2025
US official on talks with Ukraine says US willing to submit security package for Senate ratification.
Another US official says they have beefed up the security guarantees package but warns the guarantees will not be on the table forever. eg pressure on Ukraine to take it sooner
Second US official: “…details on security guarantees we are not ready to provide yet. They will come out soon. Think you will find everyone is happy with them.”
Read 5 tweets

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