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Laura Rozen Profile picture
@lrozen
Dec 7, 2021 • 13 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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🧵New from me: Iran defends itself from charges of overreach as parties prepare to return to Vienna for talks on trying to revive the nuclear pact Thursday diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
There is *a lot* of new reporting in this, incl. an interview with a US official explaining what he sees as a potential US decision point possibly coming towards end of the first quarter next year based on shrinking of Iran breakout to “margin of error” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…
“The Fordow move combines the accumulation of 20% enriched uranium and the use of advanced IR-6 centrifuges in a facility that is difficult to target,” he said. Image
“The concern is that in the first quarter of next year, Iran breakout will start to approach the margin of error…We have never been this close,” the US official said, referring to the shortening Iranian breakout time, which JCPOA extended to 1 year. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
“We certainly have the capability to put more time on the clock though military or other means. The threshold point for that is TBD.” If credible evidence they are moving towards producing weapons-grade material – or other weaponization work” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
Short of that? “I think if we get into the latter part of the [first quarter], close to the margin of error, we will reach a decision point,” the US official said. “A decision will be made.” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
Meantime, CIA chief Bill Burns said yesterday the agency does *not* “see any evidence that Iran's Supreme Leader has made a decision to move to weaponize," Burns told WSJ CEO council. He spoke as Mossad director David Barnea was reported to be in DC diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
Ex Israel military intel analyst @citrinowicz said he did not think Iran was seeking to produce a nuclear weapon, but demonstrate a threshold ability to do so, as a way to fortify itself. “I don’t think they want a bomb. …diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
“I think what they want is to be as advanced as they can in enrichment…to show that they are highly fortified…&v close to being able to acquire the fissile material for a nuclear bomb, even if they don’t have a bomb, they have the capability to do so.”

diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
Re: Iran’s recent move to use advanced centrifuges to enrich to 20% at Fordow, Citrinowicz assessed Iranian side is trying to show the other parties the cost to them of Iran not being enticed to return back to full implementation of JCPOA.

diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
“In their mind…they are highlighting the price of not being in the JCPOA. [If the JCPOA collapses], ‘We are not obligated to do anything,’” Citrinowicz characterized the Iranian negotiators’ possible mindset. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends… Image
e.g. Iran wants to show the other parties it thinks they need jcpoa more than it does
While Citroniwicz does not believe Iran wants to cross threshold to nuclear weapon, he says in current situation, there is a huge possibility for miscalculation.
“If there is not a return to JCPOA, I think we are entering a very, very unstable situation,” diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-defends…

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More from @lrozen

Laura Rozen Profile picture
Jul 3
🧵Iran Dep FM Ravanchi to NBC: “As long as there is no act of aggression being perpetrated by the United States against us, we will not respond again,” Takht-Ravanchi said when asked if more was to come.
“We are for diplomacy” & “we are for dialogue,” Ravanchi. But the US gov’t needs “to convince us that they are not going to use military force while we are negotiating. That is an essential element for our leadership to be in a position to decide about the future round of talks.”
“Our policy has not changed on enrichment,” Ravanchi said. “Iran has every right to do enrichment within its territory. The only thing that we have to observe is not to go for militarization.”
Read 4 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Jun 25
🧵Reporter: Mr. President, what's your reaction to the intelligence reports saying that the Iranian nuclear sites were only partially devastated, not entirely?

Trump: Well, …the report said it could have been very, they don't know.
Trump: I mean, if they did a report, I could have Pete [Hegseth] talk to it, because his department did the report. They really don't know.

I think Israel is going to be telling us very soon, because Bibi is going to have people involved in that whole situation.
Trump: We hear it was obliteration. It was a virtual obliteration.

When you take a look at the ground above, don't forget, the flame is all underground.
Read 4 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Jun 23
🧵Former State Dept official Dan Benaim: It seems like a moment for humility…. But it strikes me that there's so much more that we don't know than what we do know, including the very basics of the battlefield damage assessment.
Benaim: “It seems to me that despite some triumphalism, there's no once and for all solution here to the Iranian nuclear program, and we shouldn't expect one off airstrikes to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat.”
Benaim: “One thing that I should say when it comes to regional integration, and the prospects for the region… in talking about perceptions of Israel,…is Gaza.

It's a major unresolved issue for the Gulf.
Read 11 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Jun 22
🧵Ken Pollack: First point, we don't know what the American strike accomplished. we've heard the initial briefings.
I did look at the satellite photographs of Fordo. There are a couple of holes, & it's clear that the surface Earth has shifted.
But I find it very difficult to tell what the extent of the damage that was done to Fordo,
And quite frankly, I am going to be surprised if the US intelligence community has a really good read on what happened to Fordo.
Read 20 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Jun 21
“On Thur., Trump responded as he often has when faced with difficult options: He bought himself time, declaring he would wait up to 2 weeks to make a decision. So far, those cautioning the president to avoid authorizing a strike ..appear to be breaking through.”
“On Thur., Trump had lunch with Steve Bannon” who opened his show that day “by decrying the faux ‘urgency’ that pro-Israel hawks were pressing upon Trump.”

Bannon & Jack Posobiec likened those speaking to Trump advocating for a US attack on Iran to used car salesmen who tell buyers they only have limited time to decide.
“Shortly after Trump’s lunch with Bannon”, press sec Karoline Leavitt told WH press briefing she had a statement said ‘directly from the president.’ The message was that Trump was going to let negotiations play out longer.”
Read 7 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
Jun 16
Frmr Centcom chief ret. Marine Gen. Kenneth McKenzie sees mission creep in Israel war: I do believe that regime changes is on the table in Tel Aviv, & I think that represents a thing we should be very familiar with in the United States: mission creep
where you have astonishing initial success, and so your goals tend to expand as the horizon opens ahead of you.
So I think perhaps when they went into this, they were looking at a more narrowly targeted campaign, but the bringing the inability to defend themselves and the success the Israelis have had opens new vistas for you.
Read 35 tweets

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