Thread by @NAChristakis

As expected, early studies are beginning to appear about omicron immune escape using in vitro assessments. We will also have large scale epidemiological studies, which are key. 1/

Leading scientist @sigallab who authored this paper on escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 from neutralization by convalescent plasma in @nature in March nature.com/articles/s4158… just released data about immune escape and omicron using South African sample. 2/

Here is @sigallab thread on omicron immune escape:

https://twitter.com/sigallab/status/1468325159501287434?s=20

The paper will soon appear on medRxiv (and was accessible on his lab website earlier today). 3/

The results (in small N=12) show a ~41x reduction in neutralisation with omicron (among those who got the @pfizer vaccine or vaccine + natural infection). This is in line with initial expectations about immune escape considering the known mutations. 3/

So, based on this small, rapid, initial study, it looks like omicron may not completely escape neutralisation in those with meaningful immunity (e.g., those with three shots or those with prior infection plus a shot). 4/

And remember, it’s not just about antibody efficacy; memory immunity (T-cells) is also crucial in assessing omicron’s capacity for immune escape with respect to serious illness or death from SARS-2 COVID19. 5/

However, keep in mind that, given how much more intrinsically infectious (spreadable) omicron also is, it could still cause a steep rise in cases and also hospitalizations around the world, despite extant immunity. 6/

My prior thread on #omicronvariant is here:

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1465435870828322817?s=20

7/

Let's also acknowledge what a marvelous thing it is that we humans are capable of such science, which can help our bodies and address our ignorance. It's amazing that we pursue and support this enterprise. We're all beneficiaries of this capacity, as discussed in #ApollosArrow 8/

More results out today: “the loss of neutralization against omicron (relative to the pandemic founder) is exceptionally variable, with some samples showing almost no loss, and some showing ±25-fold loss relative to the pandemic founder variant.” drive.google.com/file/d/1CuxmNY… 9/

More information about this analysis of omicron immune escape, from Sweden, in this thread via @BenjMurrell 10/

https://twitter.com/benjmurrell/status/1468341478363746310