Still thinking about why Americans are so downbeat about the economy, inspired in part by this Simon Wren-Lewis piece about Britain — where voters say that the Tories are better for the economy, but Labour better for living standards (!) 1/ mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/they-l…
This seems to jibe with my suggestion that what people mean when they are asked about "the economy" doesn't connect very well to personal experience 2/ nytimes.com/2021/11/09/opi…
We are, after all, experiencing a rapid improvement in employment — actually an awesomely fast recovery in prime-age employment 3/
Yes, inflation is troubling. But real wages are up since prepandemic 4/
According to the Langer survey, people are downbeat about the economy but upbeat about their personal financial situation 5/ langerresearch.com/category/cci/
I guess it's considered uncouth to blame media coverage, although as always it's OK if you're a Republican. But it sure does look as if people keep hearing that the economy is bad, and believe it even though they themselves are doing well 6/
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Willing to consider this. But I can't find any combination of numbers under which real wages are down enough to justify the extreme gloom consumers are reporting 1/
So Republicans plan to run against inflation, while having zero ideas about how to bring it down 1/ nbcnews.com/politics/polit…
Noticeable that they're still blaming unemployment benefits for reducing labor supply — when this happens to be an experiment we've done, which failed 2/
What the data actually show is that the US, which has done more fiscal stimulus than Europe, also has higher inflation. More careful people than Rattner have cited this as evidence that fiscal did it. But with only 2 data points, need to observe that other things are going on 2/
Europe came in to this with lower inflation than we did — ECB was less successful at achieving a 2% target. This baseline effect accounts for part of the difference 3/
Need to guard against wishful thinking, but there do seem to be straws in the wind suggesting that supply-chain issues are getting less serious. Here's the Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs 1/
Big retailers seem to be doing fine on inventory for the holidays 2/ cnn.com/2021/11/16/inv…
Given the way these things typically work, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit peak inflation panic just as actual inflation is fading away 3/
Some further thoughts on inflation and what to do next. Inflation has of course come in much higher than Team Transitory predicted — the Fed was predicting only 2.4% PCE growth as late as March. So the inflation worriers have in a way been vindicated, but ... 1/
The details of what's happened are very different from what they predicted early this year. 2/
Olivier Blanchard offered an admirably clear exposition: stimulus would lead to a huge surge in demand above capacity 3/ piie.com/blogs/realtime…
Trying to clarify my own thoughts on inflation. I got inflation wrong; I didn't see the current surge coming. But why? I didn't think the fiscal stimulus early this year would boost demand as much as Summers et al predicted ... and, in fact, so far it hasn't 1/
Real final demand (excluding inventories) is up 2.6% over the past two years. That's well short of normal growth in potential output 2/
What's happened, however, is that we've faced supply constraints, both supply-chain issues in meeting huge demand for durable goods and withdrawal of workers from the labor force, i.e. Great Resignation 3/