Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 8, 2021 23 tweets 10 min read Read on X
"MacArthur's Pearl Harbor" AKA the Dec 8, 1941 destruction of FEAF air power at Clarke Field is the subject of this thread.

(Photo: Destroyed P-35 fighters on Clark Field)
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One of the important things to know about General Douglas MacArthur was that almost nothing said or written about him can be trusted without extensive research to validate its truthfulness.

There were a lot of reasons for this. The biggest being that if the Clinton era
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political concept of “The Politics of Personal Destruction” had been around in the 1930s through 1950s, Gen. MacArthur’s face would have been its poster boy.

Everything he did was personal & that made everything everyone else did in opposition to him “personal” to them. Thus

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...followed rounds of name calling, selective reporting & political partisanship that have utterly polluted the historical record and require lots of research to untangle.

A case in point is the Dec. 8th 1941 attack on Clark Field and the massacre of the FEAF B-17 force.
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This 2007 article by Michael Gough titled “Failure and Destruction, Clark Field, the Philippines, December 8, 1941″ is a good example of the accepted narrative of the Clark Field attack.

The problem with it is its underlying assumptions are wrong.
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militaryhistoryonline.com/wwii/articles/…
The biggest is the assumption 19 B-17D's (w/o tail guns or self-sealing fuel tanks) of the 19th Bombardment Group could have done anything useful before dying horribly.

Just...no.

Both the blame MacArthur for not making a decision on the loss of the FEAF at Clark field,
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and the USAAF’s “If only the B-17’s struck first” propaganda defending General Hap Arnold’s and General Marshall’s reputations post-war, just are not supported by the facts.

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Let' suppose at 0330 8 Dec 1941, HQ USAFFE gave Gen. Brereton permission to launch his bomber force at Clark (19 B-17s) against the Japanese facilities on Formosa.

What damage would have been inflicted on the Japanese?

Absolutely Nothing...because Formosa was fogged in.

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The 19th Bombardment Group B-17's would have returned to Clark field at 8:00am on 8 Dec 1941 to get refueled and been on the ground when the delayed by fog IJNAS air strike arrived to destroy them.

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More modern evaluations — AKA less colored by immediate post-war reputation protection and organizational agendas — of the FEAF performance are more telling.

The best look at that I have seen on that debacle is in Chpt 10 of Why Air Forces Fail: The Anatomy of Defeat
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edited by Robin Higham and Stephen J. Harris, which evaluated the real readiness of the Far Eastern Air Force on Dec 8, 1941.

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cybermodeler.com/hobby/ref/upk/…
That essay, titled “The United States in the Pacific” by Mark Parillo, addresses the FEAF Philippines performance starting at page 296.

The bottom line was that the B-17 force at Clark field did not have:

1) The photo intelligence to effectively strike Formosa with
12/
...the limited number of bombs available at Clark Field. There were no pre-war overflights of Formosa, no human intelligence and thus no intelligence photos for inexperience photo interpreters to work from,

2) The B-17 did not have the accuracy to strike ships at sea.
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3) Nor did the B-17 force have the logistical chops in its supporting P-40 fighters. Which lacked both coolant & O2 for high altitude operations & had no drop tanks to conduct escorted strikes w/B-17s.

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5) The B-17 force at Clark Air field were pre B-17E models lacking tail guns and powered turret guns. Thus they were dead meat for Japanese A6M Zero/Zeke fighters with 20mm cannon on Formosa.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-17_Flyi…
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6) There was no effective ground early warning system at Clark Field, as Captain Chennault’s exercise-tested-as-effective telephone, radio & binocular equipped ground observer system was drummed out of the Army Air Service as a threat to the Bomber Mafia clique’s B-17 budget.
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The B-17 force was sold as a high value “force in being” to the War Dept. & Gen Marshall in particular, such that it made the force’s commitment without a clear high-value target — like a Japanese invasion convoy — a non-starter, given a lack of clear targets on Formosa.
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The B-17s were billed a strategic force in being not to be committed lightly. MacArthur didn’t commit them & got his head handed to him.

In 20-20 hindsight, the best option after skipping on the dawn launch of Dec 8th would have been to send B-17s and many P-40s to Mindanao

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for a try on Dec 9th.

But had MacArthur dropped his B-17s on Formosa Dec 9th, swarms of vengeful A6M Zeros would have clawed them out of the sky on their return trip to Clark field.

Which they could have done, as they were both faster than B-17s and had the range to trail
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them all the way to Clark Field. And MacArthur would have been dinged for committing them before he knew what he was up against.

Sometimes everything you do is wrong, including nothing.

Such was the case for MacArthur on Dec 8th 1941.
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The pattern of Axis versus Allied air power in WW2 was that the two major Axis powers had made the transition to 1st-generation piston-engined monoplane fighters & bombers. It took a year of these advanced aircraft being in service before they could be used to best advantage
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Germany & Japan had that time, in combat, to make that transition. The FEAF at Clark Field didn't.

Clark field was too close to a modern, combat tested Japanese airpower to survive & nothing Gen MacArthur did or didn’t do would have changed that.

The enemy gets a vote.

/End.
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More from @TrentTelenko

Nov 22
So, the Russians are using TMM-6 assault scissor bridges to cross gaps in partially destroyed bridges?

Nothing like a medium girder bridge?

This points not only to a major gap -ahem- in Russian bridging capability, but also one in the Russian state.

Logistics & the State🧵
1/ Image
I've mentioned this gap in both Russian bridging capability and Western Military Intelligence assumptions about it back in June of 2023.

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That video of Ukrainian PSU glide bomb strikes underlines Russia still has nothing like the partial dry bridge gap crossing capability of a medium girder bridge in the 3rd year of the war in Ukraine.

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This line about AFU drone warheads:

>>It is especially well suited for attacking energy infrastructure.

Makes me wonder what is about to happen to the Russian power grid after Pres. Biden leaves office.🤔⬇️
Please recall DR. Celeste Wallander [ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS] extended rant about what the Biden Administration considered civilian versus military targets inside Russia for Ukrainian assault drones.

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Wallander saying Russian oil refineries are civilian targets most likely means the Biden Administration views Russian power infrastructure even more of a civilian target.

The lack of AFU grid strikes on Russia & this new power grid killing drone warhead make me go...hummm.🤔
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Nov 21
This act of cost-ineffective public theater by Putin is his going away present to the Western escalation managers they so desperately need to justify their failed retread of appeasement policy jobs

The cost of an IRBM/ICBM is around 10-20 times the cost of an ALCM/GLCM/SLCM
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...for about the same payload, with the several hundred meter CEP accuracy of a daylight of February 1945 B-17 raid.

The Putin regime put out propaganda yesterday about using the RS-26 Rubezh, a SS-20 SABER lookalike, to scare Western policy makers⬇️

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It is unlikely the Putin Regime has a significant warstock of such missiles, & every RS-26 Russia fires reduces the nuclear threat to the USA.

It is military madness...but it's great for impressing dullards in media and politics like @JakeSullivan46, German Chancellor Scholz
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Read 8 tweets
Nov 20
Please note:

@elonmusk has stated two launches from now there will be an attempted 2nd stage catch at Boca Chica.

That is in the 1st quarter of 2025.

The SpaceX Starship catch will be the "HMS Dreadnought" moment of the Space age.
1/3
After that event, every non-reusable orbital class rocket launcher in the world designed and built before her will be obsolete the same way every battleship built and designed before the all big gun HMS Dreadnought was made so.

2/3 Image
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Nothing except another fully reusable rocket can compete with Starship in exactly the same way that no other battleship could compete with HMS Dreadnought, unless it was a all big gun main battery dreadnought battleship.

3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Nov 19
People haven't paid anywhere near enough attention to this development⬇️

Russian cruise missile production is now like their tank production.

Russia is living off of Cold War stockpiles that are thinner & thinner as time goes on, & harder to resuscitate.

Attrition🧵
1/
The spokesman of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Andriy Yusov has stated that Russia's military-industrial complex can produce 40-50 Kh-101 cruise missiles every month.

2/
unian.ua/weapons/skilki…
The question that @GrandpaRoy2 photo raises is exactly how much of that X-101 production rate is being assembled using recycled Kh-55/55SM missile components?

"More than zero" was confirmed from that photo...but exactly how many?

3/ Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 18
Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.

1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%

1/
express.co.uk/news/world/197…
The Russian railway system is now falling apart.

It's not one thing, it is everything.

The Western ball bearing were the excuse for the Russian railway system to fire its entire maintenance department in 2013.

2/
moscowtimes.ru/2024/11/15/rzh…Image
~40% of Russian railway rolling stock is Soviet era vintage.

Russia went to 100% utilization of the Trans-Siberian railway in the late summer of 2021 and has stayed there ever since.

Those rail cars were not well maintained to start with, less Western bearings.

3/
Read 11 tweets

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