Thread by @crypto_div

1/ #Bitcoin has fallen to an important support area between 45.7K and 47.8K. If we drop below 45.7K, VPVR (right side of chart) shows prior volume tapers off signifantly which could mean a quick drop to the major support area of 40-43K. Let's look at what may have led to this..

2/ We've been looking at $BTC exchange reserves a lot recently and can see within the last 24 hours, reserves on exchanges went up by approximately 41114 BTC ($1.97 Billion at current prices). The drop happening immediately after is very likely related.

3/ Exchange whale reserves ratio has also been falling during this drop as it did prior to us falling from 56K - 46K on Dec. 3rd. Drops in this ratio tell us when whales are reducing their BTC positions (selling).

4/ Whales have reason to sell. Prices at 47K-50K result in $300M favoring bears in Fridays options expiry vs $160M if prices are $50-54K. This means bears have a $140 Million incentive to keep the price between 47-50K until 0800 UTC tomorrow.

cointelegraph.com/news/1-1b-in-b…

5/ In addition, China's Evergrande, a real estate giant defaulted on it's $300 Billion debt payments & was declared "in default" this morning. It's highly likely downside in markets today are related as fears about this mount.

Article on this topic:
nytimes.com/2021/12/09/bus…

6/ The key to remember is that the fundamentals have not changed, monetary policy is corrupt, inflation is rampant, and web3 has an incredible role in the future of finance. Short term there are lots of variables, and volatility, but long term.. well that's a different story.

Correction: Exchange whale ratio captures the largest inflows/outflows relative to total inflows/outflows. NOT a direct link to selling but rather a reduction on whale positions in exchanges.