We have a decision in Trump's appeal of the trial court's refusal to grant him a preliminary injunction to keep the White House records out of the hands of the select committee.
I'm reading it now.
Spoiler: He didn't break his losing streak.
1/
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2115…
I'm reading it now.
Spoiler: He didn't break his losing streak.
1/
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2115…
I skipped to the best part first. The ending.
All the rest is commentary.
If the court is going to give him a stay while he appeals to the Supreme Court, it isn't here.
I rarely make predictions, but I can't imagine SCOTUS touching this.
2/
All the rest is commentary.
If the court is going to give him a stay while he appeals to the Supreme Court, it isn't here.
I rarely make predictions, but I can't imagine SCOTUS touching this.
2/
To get a preliminary injunction, Trump had to show a likelihood of winning on the merits.
He failed because⤵️
(I'll admit that I like typing 'he failed because')
3/
He failed because⤵️
(I'll admit that I like typing 'he failed because')
3/
When you're trying to get a preliminary injunction, and the court leads with this, you know you're in trouble.
Trump had to meet each of these elements: Screenshot #1.
Here's what the court said: Screenshot #2
He needed to show all 4.
He showed 0.
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Trump had to meet each of these elements: Screenshot #1.
Here's what the court said: Screenshot #2
He needed to show all 4.
He showed 0.
4/
This will really annoy TFG: The court goes on and on about how careful and conscientious Biden has been (and it cannot credit Trump's view of Biden.)
Two examples are attached. The decision goes for pages praising Biden's explanations.
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Two examples are attached. The decision goes for pages praising Biden's explanations.
5/
Also interesting. Meadows, Jeffrey Clark, and John Eastman, in their letters and documents, made many of the same arguments Trump made.
This court decimates them.
For example, the argument that the select committee is illegitimate and overreaching.⤵️
6/
This court decimates them.
For example, the argument that the select committee is illegitimate and overreaching.⤵️
6/
Having a court describe your arguments this way is like getting a D- in a law school.
🔥ouch.
Translation: "🎶He hasn't merely lost, he really most sincerely lost.🎶"
6/
🔥ouch.
Translation: "🎶He hasn't merely lost, he really most sincerely lost.🎶"
6/
The court finds "a sufficient factual predicate for inferring that former President Trump and his advisors played a materially relevant role" in the insurrection. Screenshot #1.
This keeps getting better.
Also another D- from the court. #2
7/
This keeps getting better.
Also another D- from the court. #2
7/
Looks like I misnumbered. I guess reading, typing, thinking, AND counting at the same time are just too much.
Everyone kept trying to tell Trump and his lawyers that the Mazars test didn't apply here. Did he listen? Nooooo.
8/
Everyone kept trying to tell Trump and his lawyers that the Mazars test didn't apply here. Did he listen? Nooooo.
8/
Yes! Someone else pointed this out, but I can't find the comment to give her credit.
It's here in a footnote as well. I did a word search before reading but missed it. Now I found it.
I give myself a C for initially missing it. (Or too harsh?)
9/
It's here in a footnote as well. I did a word search before reading but missed it. Now I found it.
I give myself a C for initially missing it. (Or too harsh?)
9/
https://twitter.com/nadezhda04/status/1469066192807772161
Here is why I don't think SCOTUS will take this.
SCOTUS takes very few cases.
The cases they do present important issues of law.
This decision was not even on the merits.
This was a preliminary injunction.
10/
nolo.com/legal-encyclop…
SCOTUS takes very few cases.
The cases they do present important issues of law.
This decision was not even on the merits.
This was a preliminary injunction.
10/
nolo.com/legal-encyclop…
The law on how to get a preliminary injunction is settled.
Trump was supposed to meet 4 elements with clear evidence.
The trial court and appeals court found that he met zero of them.
The meaty issues come up later when the merits of the case are decided.
11/
Trump was supposed to meet 4 elements with clear evidence.
The trial court and appeals court found that he met zero of them.
The meaty issues come up later when the merits of the case are decided.
11/
Whenever I make a prediction about what a court will do, I always feel the need to qualify my prediction by saying that courts do surprise us.
But SCOTUS taking this would be very unexpected.
Oh, and thanks ⤵️
12/
But SCOTUS taking this would be very unexpected.
Oh, and thanks ⤵️
https://twitter.com/nadezhda04/status/1469078081684086786
12/
He's at the end of the line with this batch of documents, which then go to the select committee.
The case continues on the merits (but is sort of pointless because as the case continues, documents will keep going to the select committee.)
13/
The case continues on the merits (but is sort of pointless because as the case continues, documents will keep going to the select committee.)
https://twitter.com/CigarBargains4U/status/1469114124743454723
13/
He can challenge the next tranche by trying to get a preliminary injunction for those. He'll probably he'll lose again, and the docs will flow to the select committee.
One of these will happen: he'll get tired of losing or his lawyers will get tired of not getting paid.
14/
One of these will happen: he'll get tired of losing or his lawyers will get tired of not getting paid.
14/
It's all sort of pointless anyway because he's only able to challenge a small set of the documents select committee has subpoenaed from various federal agencies, most of these are probably duplicative and the select committee can get them by other means.
15/
15/
Nope. In 14 days, if SC hasn't taken it up, it's done.
Even though (as I said in #15) a lot of this they probably have or don't need, diligent investigators make sure they get all the evidence they possibly can.
16/
https://twitter.com/RipNTearRon/status/1469121014688800771
Even though (as I said in #15) a lot of this they probably have or don't need, diligent investigators make sure they get all the evidence they possibly can.
16/
The select committee has said it is working with other agencies that are investigating the insurrection.
Because they're still compiling evidence, it's silly that people are demanding indictments NOW.
They need all the evidence they can get FIRST. (Duh).
17/
Because they're still compiling evidence, it's silly that people are demanding indictments NOW.
They need all the evidence they can get FIRST. (Duh).
17/
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