1/ In a world where everyone seems to want to invest nearly all of their funds into tech, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a moment to reflect on the role of non-tech stocks in an investment portfolio and the advantage they bring to long-term wealth creation.
2/ The advantage of tech stocks is well known. Scalability with intangible goods can take you from 0 to 1,000,000 (or higher) in a matter of time. Successful full video games are one of the best examples of this - a couple of guys create code, pick a platform, and
3/ then can earn theoretically limited sales without encountering the limiting factors of property, equipment, labor, and the proportionality that characterizes most of the "real world." While this approach can support rapid growth, the prospect of going to zero always looms.
4/ After all, if you can easily create something on a computer and sell it, your potential competitor can do the same. Someone creates a slightly better video game or intangible good than you, and your results can be wiped out.
5/ The tangible world is a bit more durable. If you own an aging 2500 square foot house, the fact that someone buys the property next to you and builds a mansion doesn't pose a wipeout risk to you. You can still rent the property out for thousands per month.
6/ Land, and certain tangible goods tied with intellectual property, have an etch of permanence that intangible goods do not. They can generate income on, and on, and on.
7/ This matters when you try to put a collection of assets together. It may not be clear to you why someone owns an asset like Pepsi $PEP and reinvests the dividends every year. The answer is certainty, permanence, and durability.
8/ Each share of Pepsi has turned $1 of stock into $4 in value over the past ten years. By the time the next dividend rolls around, someone who reinvested in Pepsi will be collecting a 10% yield-on-cost on the amount of money they put into Pepsi a decade ago.
9/ The wisdom of owning a stock like Pepsi is that it has two dozen brands with $1 billion in annual sales. Those brands rarely experience more than one or two percentage points in market share change per year.
10/ The profits from the same tangible goods flow to the shareholder. Forever and ever. It just keeps going on and growing and growing. This means that your labor becomes a permanent source of business ownership value.
11/ When you generate a surplus from your labor, you want to grow your leftover funds. You invest, and must choose a balance between certainty and growth.
12/ Tech stocks are great for the growth. But you also need to own assets where you can sit back, take the dividend, and know that you will own a cash generator that will send you cash every 90 days for the rest of your life.
13/ At least once per year, you need to add a Pepsi-type holding to your investment collection because the growing cash infusions will be forever. And that is the ultimate reward for your labor. Right now, the mood is all about growth. I say, save some room for certainty, too.

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More from @TCII_Blog

10 Dec
1/ When it comes to successful investing, there is a substantial persuasion gap between what you hear from the value investors and those who invest in the newest thing that's supposed to take over the world. This has enormous consequences for the net worth of every American.
2/ Whenever there is talk of a new industry, the hypemeisters come out and tell you about the 1,000,000% returns that await the space. It takes the frontier spirit you have and tries to map on a form of Manifest Destiny to crypto, electric cars, and sustainable whatever.
3/ Someone was an early settler of Florida, New York, California, Texas, and so on and ended up with hundreds of acres of land now worth countless millions. "Buy this alternative currency and it will be you someday."
Read 13 tweets
5 Dec
1/ I want to reflect on several topics: Apple stock (which many own either outright or through many workplace 401k funds), stock market valuations and the future of returns, and Charlie Munger's comments this past week at the Sohn Conference.
2/ Charlie Munger offered a very profound observation when he said that the current market mania is crazier than the 1990s and "everyone who bought a stock at a P/E ratio 10 and now finds it at 35 thinks himself a genius" when criticizing the nature of current investment gains.
3/ That was clearly a veiled reference/synecdoche where he was Berkshire Hathaway's returns with Apple stock over the past five years (bought at an average price of 12x earnings and now trading at 28x earnings) as a shorthand for much of the market as a whole.
Read 13 tweets
15 Oct
1/ We need to talk about the difference between "gambling" and "investing". Every market cycle has its risks. When times are tough, I remind investors that they own assets and have a perpetual claim on the *forever* future of the business absent insolvency. But....
2/ In bull markets, a different risk shows up. And that is the seduction of gambling. Right now, our culture makes it easier than ever to gamble. There are TV commercials, websites, and right now as I watch the Giants-Dodgers baseball game, gambling imprints placed on the mound.
3/ With investing, we now live in the Robinhood culture where almost two-thirds of the company's funds come from behind-the-scenes deals relating to options contracts that are...free to the user. The culture is presently begging you to abandon discipline at all turns.
Read 8 tweets
22 Sep
1/ One of my favorite investing questions: How on earth did Monster Energy $MNST compound a total of 70,515% since 1985, turning a $10,000 investment into $7 million over that same time frame while the average American household generated total income of $1.8 million?
2/ As is always the case when it comes to the "supercompounders" of the investment world, Monster Beverage's long-term success is a combination of: good product, good structure, and good management.
3/ The first one, good product, is hard to define. We live in a world where everything is reduced to numbers, yet the reason we make a decision is very subjective. But if you throw sugar + caffeine + citric acid at consumers, they will respond enthusiastically.
Read 16 tweets
20 Sep
Financial media is always interested in content, fresh ideas, and the latest cutting edge. There is a lot of value here, but there is also a lot of trouble because it can lead susceptible investors to play "gin rummy" with their portfolio by constantly buying/selling stocks.
To use an example, Apple is the most widely held stock on Robinhood over the past five years. It has returned 418% over that time frame, 462% with dividends reinvested. An extraordinary return!
But there's the catch (there's always a catch). The average Robinhood user only achieved 11% returns for a cumulative return of 70%, presumably 91% with dividends reinvested.
Read 10 tweets
17 Sep
When you look at Procter & Gamble's stock return history, it is clear that it has entered the "resilient slow-grower" stage where valuation is particularly important for total returns. If you buy the stock for 16x earnings or less, you get total returns of 12%.
But if you pay 25x earnings, as is the valuation right now, you get..7.5% annual returns. Over time, that is a very big difference. People who bought in the late 1990s have only tripled their money through today, and that benefits from the high valuation level of today.
What happened? Well, Procter & Gamble stock loaded up on debt between 2010-2018 to retire 500 million shares through buybacks to hide the fact that it struggles to maintain volume when it raises prices. When Tide raises prices 6%, sales go down 2%, then take time to move forward.
Read 10 tweets

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