Brian Stoffel Profile picture
Dec 10, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
I don't buy stocks once they're over 5% of my portfolio.

But if I did, I'd certainly be buying $AXON today.

Here's why ⤵️
1) Perhaps the best mission statement I've ever seen
2) The core business.

If you're unfamiliar, this company makes

* TASER stun guns
* Axon body cameras
* A whole bunch of software that helps save TONS of time for police and other public servants

That last point is the most important for investors
3) Results

As you can see, those physical products drive sales, but its the high-margin recurring revenue from cloud (read: software) products that are the real story
4) Moat

Not only is this a functional monopoly, but the switching costs are enormous.

Once police forces start using these products, they're customers for the long-haul.

A little proof⤵️
5) Stellar balance sheet without any concentration

That makes it very anti-fragile
6) Founder-led business

Not only did Rick Smith found the company and stay at the helm for two decades, he gave up his salary for equity rewards.

Some might gripe the rewards are *too* rich, but I still appreciate the plan
If you want to see a video of this, @BrianFeroldi and I just published a 9 min video on $AXON

If you like that, subscribe to our Channel, where we publish 3-4 videos -- absolutely free -- every week

youtube.com/brianferoldiyt…
To review:

$AXON:

1) Has stellar mission
2) Combined hardware with software
3) 📈 results
4) Wide moat
5) 💰Balance Sheet
6) Founder led

It's also down 33% from highs

And it gets this score from @BrianFeroldi and I

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More from @Brian_Stoffel_

Oct 7
SaaS stocks used to be the cornerstone of my portfolio.

Not anymore.

I just cut ties with yet another.

Which one, and why? 👇Image
The stock: DataDog (DDOG)

🟢The good news: I earned market-beating returns.

🔴 The bad news: I was no longer confident in my ability to detect a moat.

Here's why that's so important👇Image
Let's say I live in a time and place that's NEVER had apples.

I show up and start selling apples.

They FLY off the cart and I make TONS of profit.

YAY! Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 12
I Threw In The Towel

The 8 (Mostly Tech) Stocks I've SOLD Entirely in 2024

(From Worst to Best Decision)👇
8) Intuitive Surgical $ISRG

The Reason: Valuation

The Date: May 20th

The Results:

🟢 $ISRG: +16%
🔴 $SPY: +1%

The Verdict: I love this company. I might've under-estimated how long 15%-ish growth can continue for.Image
7) MongoDB $MDB

The Reason: Moat under attack

The Date: June 6th

The Results:

🟢 $MDB: +2%
🔴 $SPY: +0%

The Verdict: Jury is still out in terms of returns. But I'm more comfortable watching and learning from what happens.Image
Read 14 tweets
Jun 27
The last month of owning Celsius stock...

Explained simply $CELH 👇
The company hit a peak on May 24th at ~$95 Image
Using a Reverse Discounted Cash Flow Analysis with:

🟡2% Terminal Growth Rate (Modest)
🟡 10% Discount Rate (Modest)
🟢 25% FCF Margin (Aggressive)

Here's what was priced into the stock on that date Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 23
How expensive is $NVDA really?

The answer might surprise you👇
Of course, we could look at common multiples:

🔵 Price / Free Cash Flow (trailing): 82
🟢 Price / Free Cash Flow (forward): 52

Those aren't obscene, but they are one of many data points. Image
My favorite tool: Optimized reverse discounted cash flow (rDCF)

First, we ask ourselves:

What's a reasonable FCF margin for $NVDA over the next 10 years?

I'll be super bullish and say 35%

- That's below where it is now
- Well above its averageImage
Read 8 tweets
May 24
Last week, I bought you the four stocks DUMPED from The Antifragile Portfolio.

This week, the four stocks BOUGHT in The Antifragile Portfolio👇
You might be wondering: "Why should I care?"

That's a fair question.

Below are the returns of The Antifragile Portfolio since the end of 2014 vs. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.Image
1) Tesla $TSLA

It's not a *full* core position in the portfolio, but it felt like the right time to add based on the valuation and potential optionality. Image
Read 8 tweets
May 21
Everything changed on November 30, 2022

The changes have come in two waves.

But Wave #3 might surface tomorrow...👇
What was the big change?

ChatGPT was released.

And AI became the buzzword on every conference call.

The first winner was obvious
Wave #1: Semiconductors

Look at what happened to $NVDA's growth rate for GPUs used in Data Centers.

That growth could continue, but the conclusion is clear: the wave has already started. Image
Read 7 tweets

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