Covid Malaise - great article on what it feels like to be in a blue state at this point in the pandemic (@DLeonhardt has written plenty of red states having less vaccine uptake & more COVID hospitalizations since vax available). I call it "twilight zone" nytimes.com/2021/12/10/bri…
It is important to assess the collateral damage of any interventions we put into place in public health to combat one disease on other conditions and @DLeonhardt does so here, also commenting "And school operations are still not back to normal. Students are sometimes..
"forbidden to sit or talk with one another during lunch — or to eat indoors. Masks make communication harder, especially for students with learning disabilities. Positive Covid tests/worker shortages can cause schools to close temporarily". In blue states, other problems ignored
Not COVID minimizing to "maximize people's health and well being" in other ways; it is actually good public health. One idea on strategy now after vax: use actual COVID hospitalization data (not COVID+ in nose on swab only in hospital) to form basis of public policy after vax
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1. WHY HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE NOW A BETTER INDICTOR OF COVID'S IMPACT: This is my 50th op-ed on @covid this year, round number. Suggest with @LeslieBienen and @citizen_oregon how to shift US strategy on restrictions & policies at this stage in pandemic nytimes.com/2021/12/11/opi…
2. New strategy likely even more important to institute (with our current tools) with the new #Omicron variant which - since likely more transmissible but more mild by accounts to date- can be in people's noses without disease. Public health sworn to protect us against illness
3. The US (and any other country) accepting that a highly transmissible virus with animal reservoirs will be endemic is not "giving up" & cases will still be tracked by health departments, but by focusing on disease, we can work harder to prevent iy
And why to remember that protease inhibitors specifically were the turning point for HIV in 1996 & so particularly excited about Paxlovid. Doctor Radio @DrMarcSiegel siriusxm.com/clips/clip/e7a…
Epidemiological update: Omicron continued reporting from EU CDC equivalent as of 6 December. "All [Omicron] cases for which there is available information on severity were either asymptomatic or mild. No deaths". Immune system more than antibodies ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events…
Although some references need updating, this explains how the immune system is not just antibodies but cellular memory too leaps.org/how-long-do-co…
If hybrid immunity strongest type of immunity at all (as shown by the Sigal lab), much better to be vaccinated first & then get benign infection on top than vice versa (not safe). Remains to be seen if boosters stimulate memory/antibodies enough (boosted people have mild Omicron)
Yes, it is true that an attenuated virus (led to more mild symptoms) did help end the 1918 influenza pandemic as Dr. Friedland said; we will keep watching Omicron variant but important observation
I would like to add a comment as a long-standing HIV doctor & researcher. Many of us have worked with South African doctors & infectious diseases epidemiologists for decades; this verified by conversations with SA colleagues; amazing doctors, researchers, scientists; we are lucky
And many of us were in touch with Indian researchers, scientists and epidemiologists at the start of the delta wave there and this was not at all true; it was terrible (4% vaccination rate); so let's all keep watching; ambiguity hard; let's wait & see
In places of low vaxn (23% in S Africa), hospitalizations rise with increasing cases with new variant; does not mean it is more virulent; means it is a COVID variant. Now 8 cases at least in US but likely much more (5 in NY, verified community spread) cnb.cx/3lpjnTE
Yesterday, WHO & S. Africa reported 90% of those in hospital were unvaccinated (meaning vaccines work); there is nothing nothing more important than getting vaccines out to the world (S. Africa 23% vax'd; surrounding countries less)
Watch carefully- current disconnect in trends in S. Africa, comparing cases and deaths. We expect lag but the increasing cases with omicron not showing the same patterns as with delta so may be clue of lower virulence. More data needed ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…