Thread by @AstorAaron

Covid strategies based on "stopping transmission" are useless and destructive. "Slowing the spread" is rarely effective too. The goal should be to prepare communities for the inevitable arrival of the virus and to prevent severity. That means increasing population immunity.

The safest path to immunity is vaccination. The most at-risk people in America right now are age 45-65 who were never infected and still have not gotten vaccinated. (Esp. those overweight). Florida gave us a warning about them in August. There are a LOT of them still out there.

They are not the *only* at-risk group, but they continue to fill up hospitals at a disproportionate rate. The biggest myth many of them believe is that by making it this far, they will never get infected. Too many learned that lesson the hard way here in the South in August.

And now they are filling up mostly (but not entirely) rural hospitals in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Upstate NY and all over New England.

Mild illness is not fun, but it's not the problem that can be prevented. Severity can be prevented for most. Hopefully antiviral pills will further limit severity (and limit Long Covid). Especially vulnerable people will need to wear fitted masks to protect themselves.

But governments and institutions chasing this down with mandated NPIs are never going to win. It's time to stop focusing on "cases", especially in highly-immune populations. Report them so the vulnerable can assess their personal risk, but don't use them to guide mitigation.

With Omicron more likely to reinfect and cause breakthrough infections - but NOT more likely to cause severe symptoms for those with either form of immunity - it's imperative that hospitals report incidental PCR+ separate from those hospitalized for covid symptoms.

Meanwhile, some potentially very good news from Gauteng, South Africa on Omicron. Looks like it may have peaked already.

https://twitter.com/AstorAaron/status/1469742138531450896?s=20