Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* 176 cases/day (highest in 9wks)
* 5.4% positive (highest in 8wks)
* testing is up, but cases are up more
* 82 deaths so far in Dec (vs 68 all of Nov)
* hospitalizations are up, but only slightly

1/

After falling down to 8.4 avg daily cases per 100,000 people in early November, our case rate has climbed up to 18.8 per 100k, more than doubling in just 5wks.

2/

At this point last year, though, we were avg'ing nearly 3x more cases per day (482) than we are now (176).

But our Summer surge this year started later than it did last year - and it peaked far higher.

Will the same will happen with Winter? (Who knows?)

3/

Even though cases are much lower than they were last year at this time, deaths are actually higher. We're avg'ing nearly 6/day.

This is a big concern, especially considering that cases are rising quickly. Does that mean we'll see even more deaths in the coming wks & months?

4/

Less than 2wks into the month, we've already had more deaths (82) than we did all of November (68).

Some have asked, but this spike doesn't seem to be connected to Thanksgiving. It's too soon for that. It usually takes at least a month from exposure to death.

5/

Cases dropped...but they didn't stay down for long. And they were already rising before Thanksgiving.

There were 1,235 cases reported this week.
+33% over 1wk
+73% over 2wks
+101% over 6wks

6/

And while pediatric cases are way down from the beginning of the school year, they're on the rise, though not much.

And pediatric cases are only 21% of total cases now, down from 34% just 4wks ago.

7/

Of course, kids 5-12 were just made eligible to be vax'd in that time. So that's a factor, but not a huge one - not that many kids have been vax'd yet.

My thinking is that school, with masks, is a relatively safe environment.

8/

We saw pediatric cases extremely high after kids were home all Summer Break.

And then cases spiked, nearly doubling, in the 2wks after just 1wk home for Fall Break.

Now we see cases rising again after 1wk home for Thanksgiving.

9/

If I'm correct here, then we'll see increased pediatric exposure over the 2wks of Winter Break - especially given that cases are rising overall.

And so the concern would be that we might see pediatric cases spike in January.

10/

It's essential that we get kids vax'd.

And since it takes 3wks to get fully vax'd, there's no time to wait.

11/

As you think about end-of-year giving, consider Rachel's Kids.

My family - and our church - have been supporting Rachel for over a decade now. And everything you give goes to kids and families in Binghampton, so give generously.

rachelskidsinc.org/donate

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