Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
Dec 11, 2021 14 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Zoomers' wages are growing really fast. Median over-the-year growth within worker into the last 3 months is almost 10%, but less fast than last 2 months showed.

Acceleration in prime-age and older workers too. Image
Splitting up the age groups more finely shows acceleration in a lot of age groups, though lots of noise. Image
The @AtlantaFed presents median over-the-year trends by age group averaging over the growth into the last 12 months, rather than the last 3 as I did.

What I'm doing is somewhat inadvisable due to noise & small sample. Life on the bleeding edge seeking to detect rapid change.
@AtlantaFed Here are 12-month versions for comparison. For Zoomers, it looks like wage growth is accelerating above 10%. ImageImage
The quarter of workers who made the least in Sept-Nov 2020 had the fastest growth over the year to Sept-Nov 2021, a median within-worker growth rate of just under 6%.

2nd quartile also experienced acceleration, now growth almost as fast at 1st. Others slower. Image
Here are the 3- and 12- month moving averages of median wage growth in a few industries.

In the 3-month, there's little difference between Leisure & Hospitality, Trade & Transport, or Education & Hospitality... all around 4%. ImageImage
In the 12-month, workers in these 3 sectors -- Construction & Mining, Finance & Business Services, and Manufacturing -- all also experienced median growth of about 4%.

Focusing on most recent months, Construction & Mining is a bit lower & others higher. ImageImage
Wage growth for non-white workers looks to have accelerated up to 6%, but it's quite noisy so I want to see if the pattern holds. Image
Using the WGT 12-month average of median wage growth, we see job switchers at around 4% and stayers just over 3%.

But focusing on the most-recent 3 months shows recent acceleration in both series, with switchers around 5% and stayers around 4%. ImageImage
Young (16-29 years old) switchers in recent months have wage median growth around 12%

Young stayers around 6%. ImageImage
30-44 year old switchers around 6%, stayers around 4%. ImageImage
45-59 year olds switchers a little above stayers, around 3%. ImageImage
60+ year olds getting growth in the 2-3% range. ImageImage
For 25% of people employed both recently & 12 months, their hourly wage grew by 16% or more. Just over 25% saw their wage decline.

Average growth (6.0%) > median (4.3%), given positive skew in over-the-year hourly wage growth rates into the last 3 months. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Aaron Sojourner

Aaron Sojourner Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @aaronsojourner

Jun 9, 2023
This paper is SOOOOO interesting. I love it.

They posit 3 types of Americans with different relations to the labor market. Folks in:

- primary enjoy steady work, any job search quick.

- 2ndary struggle to find jobs, move across U, E, N a lot.

- 3iary mostly out.
These bring the Dual Labor Market hypothesis home to the U.S.

Interprets short-panel linked CPS data combining:

- a hidden Markov model of observed transitions by latent type,

- a measurement model uses many rich CPS questions to assign each person type probabilities.
The primary market, estimated to represent 55% of American population, enjoys super-high LFPR/EPOP, super-low UR.

2ndary (14%): in LF 73% of time but unemployed a third of that time.

3riary (32%): out 91% of time. UR intermediate when in.

Heterogeneity that matters. Image
Read 11 tweets
May 21, 2023
Amazon warehouse mgmt uses intensive, opaque monitoring as input to discipline, pay, promotion, & firing decisions.

MN just passed a law requiring employers like them to make such standards, incentives, & data transparent to workers.

Fascinating on a few fronts... Image
No one likes working to unclear standards.

But mgmt often prefers it,⬇️some gaming &⬆️ managers' discretionary power.

Even if mgmt uses clear well-justified rules, if workers don't know them, feel arbitrary.

Mgmt says, trust us. Many workers do not.
thenation.com/article/politi…
In a workplace with new tech-enabled, intensive, high-stakes monitoring, it's interesting to see workers demand & win transparency of rules & of data.

Amazon warehouse workers in MN have actively pushed to improve working conditions for a decade @AwoodMpls. This is latest win.
Read 5 tweets
May 18, 2023
Lower-income Americans often need access to $ NOW!

Speedier payments benefit those most in need.

Instant payments, like @federalreserve’s FedNow coming July, would create billions in consumer value.

🧵my new paper w/the great @ryanmcdevitt
direct.mit.edu/rest/article-a… Image
We measure willingness-to-pay (WTP) for $ today versus $ soon.

Use transaction data from a bank that offers both bank accts (BA) & check-cashing (CC), unusual.

Usually, 2 services offered by different bizs = tough to leverage customer choices to credibly isolate WTP.
@springbankny was 1st new S. Bronx-based bank in 25 years when in 2007 when started as Check Spring Bank. Later I served on & chaired bank’s board.

Aimed to deliver financial services value to S. Bronx community, compete head-to-head with check cashiers.
spring.bank/about-us Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 28, 2023
Wealthiest 0.1% of Americans saw 5.0% of their wealth disappear from the quarter before the Fed started hiking rates in 2022Q1 to 2022Q4

The next 0.9% saw 7% of their wealth disappear

In contrast, the least-wealthy half of Americans saw their (much smaller) wealth rise 17%
The price of Fed action to fight inflation has so far been paid mostly by wealthier Americans whose assets in stocks, crypto, & elsewhere deflated.

If Fed causes employers to start destroying jobs in the real economy, the price burden will shift dramatically.
This is how it started and the labor market has held up remarkably well. The Fed can break it though.

Hard-landing advocates claim doing so is the only way to bring down inflation.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 29, 2023
10% of America's abt 155 million employees belong to a union.

+1 percentage point a year requires +1.55 million net members if employment flat.

In 2022, union membership rose 273K, 6X smaller.
Estimated +273K from @BLS_gov worker survey. Reflects net hiring by union employers, priv (+193K) + public (+80K) sector, & new organizing inside & outside NLRB.

Abt 52K private sector workers voted to newly unionize in 2022, eyeballing @KevinReuning's NLRB data. 30X smaller.
@BLS_gov @KevinReuning The AFL-CIO's strategy aims to organize 1 million workers over 10 yrs, +100K/yr pace.

That's either 37% of the 2022 pace if it includes all change or less than 2X 2022's pace if newly unionized only.

Is this under-promising to over-deliver?
reuters.com/world/us/us-la…
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(