The great British PM, the Marquess of Salisbury, warned: "If you believe the doctors, nothing is wholesome; if you believe the theologians, nothing is innocent; if you believe the military, nothing is safe." At some point, it's the job of politicians to decide: we're safe enough
Unless the US moves to vastly stricter vaccine mandates - which I would favor, but which is plainly not going to happen - the US will stall at present vaccination levels. 1/x
@HotlineJosh So the practical political choice is: keep schools and businesses on the present hobbled footing indefinitely - or return fully to normally as boosters become available to all, accepting the inherent risks of "normal" in a 30% unvaxxed society? 2/x
@HotlineJosh You want to fulminate against the dumb-ass malignity of the anti-vaxxers and their (quietly personally vaxxed) media and political enablers? Go ahead, I do it myself almost every day right here in this space. 3/x
@HotlineJosh But the malignant minority is not yielding to reason any time soon. And even such seemingly basic mandates as "no jab, no fly" seem beyond the enforcement capability of the US federal government. So what now? 4/x
3) Otherwise return to normal as fully as we can, especially the schools; and
4) Let hospitals quietly triage emergency care to serve the unvaccinated last
Reading the reactions to this tweet, I am impressed by the immense self-pity of the anti-vaxxers - who see themselves as bottomless victims, even as their own bad choices deny hospital care to so many others in desperate need.
If, at this point, you are still unvaccinated, you are not a victim. You are a cause of the victimization of vulnerable others
"Knowledge in the abstract ... is not enough. ... [I]nstitutions and culture shape the application of scientific knowledge. Improvements in life expectancy are generated not by ideas alone but by ideas that are put into action ...
... especially by capable governments that care about the health of their citizens, and by cultures that translate scientific advances into behavioral adaptations." - Plagues Upon the Earth, p. 384
"The control of infectious disease, by its very nature, requires collective and coordinated action. ... Societies that were good at solving collective action problems were thus most effective in controlling infectious disease." - Plagues Upon the Earth, p. 385
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Donald Trump's approval rating in his first term moved in a narrow band: never above 50%, but also seldom below 40%, and then not much below. 1/x
Even during COVID, Trump's supporters stayed true. Unhappy as they were during COVID, Trump supporters agreed to shift blame for their unhappiness to somebody else: blue-state governors, Dr Fauci, etc. 2/x
But what if the US is struck by a disaster that is undeniably Trump's doing? Financial markets *predict* the disaster, but are not themselves the disaster. Few Americans have yet lost jobs, prices are only beginning to rise, shops are still full of goods to buy. 3/x
First-term Trump was also an economic idiot. He imposed escalating tariffs in first half of 2018, not only on China but on EU and Canada too. Trump bad policy triggered a big stock slump in second half 2018. 1/x
Trump worried that the bad stock market of 2018 might dim his re-election chances. He spent much of 2019 desperately pleading with the Chinese for an exit from the trade war he started the year before. 2/x
Trump's eagerness for a China deal to save his re-election was a reason that he dismissed the gathering warnings of a new pandemic in China. He failed to protect the country because he was trying to protect himself. Here's Trump in January 2020: 3/x
There are 2 economic ideas behind the Trump tariffs. One is obviously very stupid. The other is also very stupid, but less obviously so.
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The obviously stupid idea is that America should return to the industrial self-sufficiency of 1913 without regard to cost or value. Americans should manufacture their own athletic shoes and door hinges and plastic tubs, and if that requires a 125% protective tariff ... so be it!
The less obviously stupid idea posits that the true justification for tariffs is not the trade balance, but the capital account. Foreigners are placing too much capital in the US. That flow raises the value of the dollar. US imports become too cheap; US exports too costly.
The Trump administration appears to be actively contemplating an act of Putin-like aggression and annexation against a NATO ally
US treaties are part of the supreme law of the land.
I question whether a presidential directive to the US military to invade and annex the territory of a NATO ally would be a "lawful order."
PS I was thinking of VP Vance's threats against the Danish territory of Greenland, which sounded like a warning of imminent US invasion. But I should have been more specific, since the Trump administration has been threatening US aggression against Canada too.
America's allies are deciding that the F-35 fighter cannot be trusted under a Putin-governed US administration. "[B]y severing maintenance support, shipments of spare parts, and cutting foreign F-35s off from U.S. computer networks, the aircraft would quickly be hobbled. …"
“Without these software updates, F-35s could fly, but would be much more likely to be shot down by enemy air defenses. Also without U.S. maintainers and spare parts, it would be difficult to keep the aircraft flying for long ...." breakingdefense.com/2025/03/no-the…
I've personally heard similar concerns from allied governments about the reliability of US-made naval vessels as well. French / Swedish / South Korean equipment may not be as advanced as American, but potentially more trustworthy than weapons from a Russian-aligned USA.
Such a curious coincidence, that's exactly what Herbert Hoover said on October 25, 1929, the day after the Dow Jones dropped 9% in a single day. millercenter.org/the-presidency… Trump's stock market is down 10% from in less than 30 days. x.com/charliespierin…
Soon after Herbert Hoover deployed his "fundamentals of the economy are sound" line in October 1929, he signed a big tariff increases, started a global trade war, and converted a stock market shock into a worldwide depression.
Here's the full Herbert Hoover quote from October 25, 1929. As you read it, you'll see that Hoover - a highly intelligent and perceptive man - was uneasily aware that the fundamentals were actually coming apart. Hoover signed tariff increases anyway.