Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD on UK covid situation, Omicron and what's happening...

TLDR: Omicron increasing very fast and we are getting increasing evidence of significant ability to infect previously infected or vaxxed people.

Expect UK response to change rapidly in response. 1/10

First, UK cases are climbing, back to near January pandemic peak levels. Scotland and England are rising fastest in recent days.

In England, London is rising faster than other regions.

Cases highest in 5-14 yr olds but rising fast in 20 somethings recently... 2/10

As of end last week, people in hospital going down everywhere except England, where admissions are now going up, driven by 18-64 year olds.

Unfortunately, if cases go up sharply in next few weeks, admissions will follow. By how much is the question... 3/10

The govt, SAGE, UKHSA are all warning of a big new wave in cases driven by rise of Omicron over the coming weeks.

What we don't know is how bad the consequences will be - but it is certain that they will be worse than they would have been without Omicron. 4/10

Latest UKHSA report confirms that Omicron is doubling every 2-3 days in UK & does have a large growth advantage vs delta.

Also that vax efficacy takes a big hit - you *really need* the booster dose to protect against Omicron infection.

Full thread:

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469350830864322560?s=20

5/10

Since data for tech report, Omicron was almost 10% of cases in England by last Wednesday (now likely much higher). Also likely dominant in London by now -> already 30% cases by Weds.

Highest Omicron in 20 somethings in London. 6/10

So about 35% of UK has that third dose right now. We're giving about 400k+ doses a day which is good but we need to speed up given speed of Omicron.

Plus millions of children don't even have 1 dose let alone 3. 5-11 a priority for vax if we want to protect them next term. 7/10

The NHS is under a lot of strain already - *without* Omicron added pressure. See this thread:

https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1469926186520387585?s=20

Unfortunately many over 50 have waned 2nd doses & NO booster. Vax is *lowest* in London where Omicron is highest (68% 1 dose in over 12s vs 89% in England) 8/10

With the some Omicron cases now being admitted to hospital, we know that even vaccines blunt a lot of the severity of illness the sheer size of the Omicron wave could be overwhelming. Hence also the rising threat level. 9/10

Cases likely to escalate quickly in coming weeks, with potentially severe NHS consequence in Jan.

Expect response to change v rapidly too.

Best case is any vax dose stays great vs severe illness. We don't know about Long Covid.

We do need to protect kids & vulnerable. 10/10

PS quite possible that we can't test all the people wanting tests so *confirmed* cases might well not rise as fast - but because of testing capacity and not because cases aren't there to be found.