In 2019 I wrote that Boris Johnson had done more for a United Ireland than the IRA ever did. Ashcroft’s startling poll of NI voters proves this assessment was more accurate than I could have guessed.🧵
22% of voters have shifted in the direction of a United Ireland as a result of Brexit
Nearly 50% think Brexit has made a United Ireland much more likely and another 18% slightly more likely
A particular impact on the younger generation: 85% aged 18-24 said there should be a border poll at some point in the future, 72% think it should be held within the next 10 years. 71% said they would vote for unification, with 24% opting to stay in the UK
This doesn’t mean there will be a majority for a United Ireland any time soon. But it does mean we need to start thinking about the consequences, particularly if SF gain control of government north and south, rather than burying our heads in the sand.

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More from @jnpowell1

10 Sep 20
1/7 Every time a Tory minister appears on the media they have a different explanation of why they are breaking international law on the NI protocol. So far I have counted 5. This thread lists them and suggests what the real reason may be.
2/7 Gov: ‘These are specific and limited changes required by the ambiguity of the original agreement’.
No they are not - they potentially undermine the whole point of the backstop.
3/7 Gov: ‘They are to save the Good Friday Agreement’.
On the contrary they undermine the GFA by risking the need to impose a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic to protect the Single Market.
Read 7 tweets
8 Dec 19
1/Post debate it is now obvious this election is not going to ignite. If the campaign feels depressing and dull that is because it is meant to. The Tories aim is to depress the vote and win on differential turnout.
2/There was always going to be a lower turn out in a December election than in a traditional summer one. But by running a defensive and vacuous campaign Johnson has ensured that most people turned off and tuned out. The majority can’t remember a thing that has been said.
3/He has been abetted by Labour and LibDems who have failed to inspire voters. That’s why there are a record number of undecideds and ‘won’t vote’ holds a majority over sitting MPs in 551 seats. There is no national party anyone can positively vote for in good conscience.
Read 6 tweets
5 Oct 19
1/To illustrate the hidden trick in Boris Johnson’s ‘compromise proposal’, a brief explanation of power sharing in Northern Ireland...
2/The GFA established a power sharing mechanism so that all major decisions have to be taken by cross community agreement, so both the DUP and SF have a veto on change in NI. That means everything depends on how the question is put and it can be skewed in favour of one side.
3/ If, after four years, the question is do you want NI’s membership of the Single Market to continue, then the DUP can say no. If however the question is do you want to change the status quo by leaving the single market, then SF can say no. Johnson has proposed the former.
Read 6 tweets

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