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1/Post debate it is now obvious this election is not going to ignite. If the campaign feels depressing and dull that is because it is meant to. The Tories aim is to depress the vote and win on differential turnout.
2/There was always going to be a lower turn out in a December election than in a traditional summer one. But by running a defensive and vacuous campaign Johnson has ensured that most people turned off and tuned out. The majority can’t remember a thing that has been said.
3/He has been abetted by Labour and LibDems who have failed to inspire voters. That’s why there are a record number of undecideds and ‘won’t vote’ holds a majority over sitting MPs in 551 seats. There is no national party anyone can positively vote for in good conscience.
4/The Tories hope this will make Remainers and young voters stay at home while they use an invisible targeted social media ‘dog whistle’ campaign to push those who feel strongly about Brexit to the polls. They hope this differential turn out will give them a majority.
4/But where does such a cynical victory leave Johnson? The point of an election is not just to win but to gain a mandate. He won’t have a mandate for the difficult Brexit negotiations ahead or anything else. He won’t be able to reunite the country and his popularity will tumble.
5/If Johnson wins we are all in for a ghastly four years. We can’t let his election be the end of it. There has to be a resistance afterwards - particularly if the turnout is low.
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