Exactly right. Johnson takes the judgement that the 'tidal wave' doesn't justify another lockdown, but he wants to scare people out of hospitality to reduce infections, without compensating businesses.
He wants to look like he is taking action, distract from the parties topic, and do this without antagonising the Covid Research Group who are anti-lockdowns, which they think are 'socialist'. As @help_its_louis remarks, in some ways we are back to the start of the pandemic.
Sadly, very important economic and public health decisions, are highly politicized. Not that these decisions shouldn't be taken by those we elect. But that they shouldn't be coloured by the decision maker's political fortunes.
Trying to control omicron this way places the burden on the risk averse and the vulnerable, who will listen to the risk assessments and stay away.
Two years into this pandemic, many of us I'm sure would like to know what capacity building we have helped the NHS do to ride these tidal waves without lockdowns.
There are some on here who take the view that this could be life now. Regular waves of new variants. A significant lag while vaccines catch up with tweaks, or boosters. Surges of cases and hospitalizations and deaths in the mean time.
If that's the case then there is an argument that hospitality will just have to adapt itself, eventually. State support should just be to ease the transition. There will be less of it as activities become unprofitable and it will be more expensive, as a result.
If the future is brighter, + we find super-vaccines that pre-empt any variant, or lags between variants and vaccine tweaks/boosts get very short, or covid itself is slowly squeezed so that the frequency of these variants drops off, support now is more tenable.
To be fair to the government, we don't know how things will play out. So the decision is not clear cut.
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Objections to vaccine passports often stress liberty. But society infringes our liberties all the time to help the collective good. Our access to weapons. What we can do with them. Our ability to drive cars or ride motorbikes or pilot planes. Our rights to privacy.
Vaccine passports should be weighed on their merits. Harm caused to those who feel compelled to get vaccines who wouldn't do it otherwise, or have to avoid venues and services they previously had access to, vs the suffering alleviated by suppressing covid.
The suffering has many components: the regret an unvaccinated person and their loved ones have later when hospitalized or facing death. The illness and death of others fostered by less impeded spread of covid; and the fear of it. Leaning more on other tools like lockdowns.
One thing I might add is that there is an ideological angle to this. Boris Johnson is not really a conservative. The party tolerate this on pragmatic grounds Provided he is a personal electoral asset.
Big state dirigism can be swallowed if it is going to win. But if not nostalgia for low tax conservatism might reassert itself.
Wonder if Haldane will stick it out for much longer now we are told there is no new money for ‘Levelling Up’.
Can’t really expect The Department For Taking a Bit Away From Here and Adding it There to work miracles snd undo centuries of place based disadvantage.
White Paper 1: ‘we must take away a bit here and add it there’.
Musing aloud about the major global macro themes. These seem to be...
1. How much team transitory was wrong, initially, and what central banks will / should do about it. Complicated by the recent change in the Fed targeting regime which has confused things.
2. The vanishing labour supply, post covid. Super-imposed [particularly in the US] on the vanishing male labour supply longer term.