On whether the unique furin cleavage site, which makes SARS-CoV-2 the pandemic pathogen that it is, was genetically engineered, please see the comments of unassailable virologists.
No sensible scientist is saying that the furin cleavage site could not possibly have evolved naturally in SARS-CoV-2.
We're saying that it is also reasonable to hypothesize that scientists might've inserted it in a lab. They had a pipeline for this as early as March 2018.
For a deeper dive into why it's so challenging to know whether the furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2 arose naturally, please see our peer-reviewed manuscript at @MolBioEvol academic.oup.com/mbe/advance-ar…
Peter Daszak started a trend of calling completely plausible hypotheses that he didn't like conspiracy theories.
Virologists should stop following his example if you care about preserving the credibility of your field.
For ease of reference, the key parts of the DEFUSE proposal from March 2018 detailing a pipeline for detecting novel cleavage sites and inserting these into novel SARS-like viruses in the lab for infection studies.
Bear in mind that up until SARS2 appeared, no SARS-like virus had ever been reported to have an S1/S2 FCS insertion. Yet these scientists wrote, in detail, they would review their sequencing data for potential furin cleavage sites, introduce these into low risk SARS-like viruses.
In situations where novel SARS-like viruses could not be directly isolated from the animal or human sample, they would synthesize the entire consensus candidate genome commercially and recover the recombinant viruses in the lab.
Do we know what sequences and samples (across China and 7 SE Asian countries) were in the possession of the Wuhan Institute of Virology?
No. Their pathogen sample database built to inform us about emerging threats was not shared when a real pandemic began.
To make things worse, FOIA'ed docs and sleuths showed that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was collecting 10,000s of high risk animal & human samples in search of novel pathogens across 8 countries, including China and Laos where SARS2's closest relatives have been found in bats.
Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance even wrote to NIH in 2016 saying that there wasn't enough wildlife trade left in China to sample so they wanted to start sending 1000s of samples from across 7 SE Asian countries up to Wuhan.
On top of the disturbing revelations about the research ongoing prior to the pandemic, we've seen some scientists - whose work was aimed at informing us of novel pandemic pathogens - withhold key information about their research time and again.
Not forthcoming. Not transparent.
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Both natural & lab origins plausible, say US intelligence and scientists. Top virologists say genetic engineered origin is reasonable. 1/10
Existing genetic and epidemiological data are consistent with a superspreader event at Huanan Seafood Market but no direct evidence of an original animal source. Typical evidence of SARS-like viruses circulating in Wuhan animal trade community not found. 2/10
Totality of SARS2-like viruses in animal trade across China and SE Asia = only 3 pangolin viruses. No bats or pangolins sold in Wuhan markets. China tested 80,000 animal samples, no sign of SARS2. 3/10
A review of VIRAL: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19 by a scientist or journalist who has placed all their bets on a natural #OriginOfCovid:
"I have not read the book, but I already know it is antiscientific & hateful. How dare they not discuss my favorite niche hypothesis!"
"How could prominent scientists dare to enjoy VIRAL: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19 by Alina Chan and @mattwridley! All of my friends who could lose their careers and reputations if Covid came from a lab told me that this book sux!!"
"Surely Alina Chan and @mattwridley must be stretching the facts if their book insists that both natural and lab #OriginOfCovid hypotheses remain plausible and deserve full investigation. My scientist friends who said a lab leak was a conspiracy theory can't be wrong."
Scientists cannot accurately predict whether recombinant viruses created in the lab will be more transmissible or deadly compared to the parent (natural) virus.
The documents that drove this point home for me were FOIA'ed by @theintercept and only released in Sep/Oct 2021.
@theintercept I had read the 2015 publication where a novel SARS-like spike was inserted into 🐁-adapted SARS1.
The authors said there was a "gain in pathogenesis" if you compared different studies. But if you looked at their study (fig 1), there's no observable GOF.
In a 2017 study where chimeric SARS-like viruses were created, there was also no observable GOF when the viruses were used to infect human cells (fig 7 and 8).
“If the lab worker is confirmed to have been infected at her workplace, then this will add credibility to the lab leak theory” - Yanzhong Huang, a Chinese public health expert at the Washington-based think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations. taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4374287
Taiwan continues to do an outstanding job identifying ways in which SARS-CoV-2 could've infected a scientist at one of their BSL3 labs and went undetected for weeks.
Important to note that *if* SARS-CoV-2 had been experimented with in a lab before it emerged in Wuhan in 2019, it would not have been as easy to detect lab-acquired infections or community spread.
The scientists would've also been very surprised to see that a virus had escaped.
Whether or not the book is a bestseller, I feel that we have achieved what we set out to do. Share with the world key #OriginOfCovid findings, evidence & stories to galvanize worldwide calls for a credible investigation of both natural and lab origin hypotheses. @mattwridley
I became infamous for writing that SARS-CoV-2 might have adapted for human infection and transmission in a lab, alongside other plausible natural scenarios.
But top experts had also been saying the same thing, just without pointing out that the virus might've come from a lab.
I was actually annoyed when @antonioregalado pointed this out to me earlier this year. That even the Proximal Origin authors had discussed how was it that SARS-CoV-2 had (pre-)adapted for humans.
@antonioregalado Some ask, why are we seeing new variants if SARS2 was well adapted for humans in Dec 2019?
Because viruses don't stop evolving. If we had run the well adapted SARS1 through 300 million people across every race and health condition, we would've also been overrun with variants.