Thread by @jonworth

With the UK's "Plan B" COVID restrictions due to be voted on tomorrow, and with a substantial Tory rebellion expected (probably enough to mean Johnson needs to count on Labour support), a 🧵 on relations between the PM, his backbenchers, COVID restrictions, and a new Tory leader

The media framing goes like this

The Number 10 parties showed there was one rule for the elite, and one for the little people
⬇️
This means fewer people will respect COVID restrictions
⬇️
Will result in greater spread, probably more deaths and pressure on NHS
⬇️
Replace Johnson

In the Tory Party each debate about restrictions has gone like this

Johnson (and Hancock, now Javid) want tougher restrictions
⬇️
Their credibility is shot within the party
⬇️
The price to rebel gets lower and lower
⬇️
So vote against the new restrictions

But the paradox here is that it is Johnson himself - the very person the Tory backbenchers are annoyed with - is responsible for creating the political environment in which such irresponsible behaviour can flourish

Earlier @ProfTimBale called the behaviour of these backbenchers "silly" and in terms of COVID control it is

But the reason Tory MPs can get away with this is there is no price they think they will pay for irresponsible behaviour

If - as Johnson has - you have built your whole government's approach on a huge lie (the benefits of Brexit - that do not exist) and won an election based on that lie, then why not keep repeating the falsehoods?

Discipline, propriety and good policymaking seem not to matter

"We protected your liberty" the MPs will say. "And a feckless public, a creaking NHS, and whoever else we can blame caused all of this mess"

And the Telegraph and the Mail will lap it up, and it might see the Tories over the line at the next election

Or they still think it will

But let's for a moment fast forward to a Tory leadership election - because discontent with Johnson is going to overflow among MPs sooner or later, and *most probably* before the end of the pandemic

What happens?

My fear is that pandemic control *will get looser*

At the moment Johnson and Javid balance what their scientists are telling them on one hand with what the backbenchers will tolerate on the other

Whoever wants to follow Johnson has to only appeal to the backbenchers

Look at how Cameron became Tory leader - by appealing to the hardliners. Johnson himself appealed to the hardliners

Liz Truss - whose earlier pivot from Remainer to diamond hard Brexiter was breathtaking and swift - will pitch to them too. "I'll defend liberty" she'll say

Hunt (who as an ex-Minister of Health) and Sunak (seems somewhat in the real world, at least in terms of economic policy) will not dare to bring themselves to be so brazen

So Truss - personally more respectable than Johnson, but politically as opportunistic - has high chances

So to bring the thread full circle, getting rid of Johnson might help in terms of pandemic control - in that replacing hypocrite in chief might mean the government's pandemic messaging could be more coherent...

... but based on the dynamics within the Tory Party that will determine Johnson's successor, the vote to choose that person is going to be a free for all of pandemic control irresponsibility

Be careful what you wish for!

/ends