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Simon Wardley Profile picture
@swardley
Dec 13, 2021 • 20 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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X : Have you seen this cloud survey ...
Me : Hmmm. No separation of populations. Not interested.
X : Sorry?
Me : Ok, take a map ...
... the evolution axis comes from this curve ...
... that curve is made of multiple diffusion curves of ever improving (fit) instances of a thing, each with its own chasm ...
... which is why in the evolution of something there are "many" chasms to cross ...
... take a moment in time, the majority maybe on one diffusion curve (e.g. the latest instance of compute as a product i.e. servers) and the minority on another (i.e. compute as a utility i.e. cloud) - both share a common meaning of compute ...
... so if you take a map of say computing in 2006 ...
... roll it forward by applying common economic (climatic) patterns of evolution, componentisation and co-evolution ... then it was easy to see what actually then happened ...
.. the majority were focused on best architectural practice for compute as a product, the minority were focused on compute as a utility with DevOps ...
... roll it forward to 2015 then the same thing occurs around serverless with the majority focused around the runtime as a product (LAMP etc). FinOps wasn't a name then, just new practices were appearing ...
... then you can keep rolling it forward ... 2020 ...
... until say 2030 where all the lower order components start "disappearing" as they are abstracted away.
None of this is retrospective, this was all predicted with maps ... but that's not the point ... the point is where you should invest ...
... but look closely at the map. The majority today will tell you to invest in exactly the wrong places ... go do DevOps, go do IaaS ... great for 2010, terrible idea for 2021. You should be focused on serverless.
Me : So, when it comes to your cloud survey ... Simpson's paradox. If if doesn't seperate out the populations (and there are distinct populations in the DevOps world, it's not homogenous) then you're probably aggregating to exactly the wrong advice.
Me : There are some companies out there that are on the ball i.e. take a look at the work that @Liberty_IT is doing. But all these go IaaS, do DevOps, build hybrid claims from "aggregated" surveys are selling you the wrong path.
X : What do you mean by common meaning?
Me : Many of the components have a common meaning i.e.
Remember the labels on the axis at the bottom are just labels for the different stages of evolution (I to IV). We use different labels for different forms of capital ...
Hence DevOps is currently good (heading towards best) architectural practice for compute as a utility nee cloud. There are, and remain, different best architectural practices for compute as a product nee servers.
So, for example we have a whole bunch of emerging coding practices nee FinOps being built on the runtime as a utility nee serverless. These are different from coding practices (best) for the runtime as product ... take security as an example.
Anyway, this is all old hat ... as I said, this is not a retrospective, this was all said before and during the relevant events. The point I want to emphasise is if you take the aggregated majority view with these distinct populations then you will end up on the wrong path.

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More from @swardley

Simon Wardley Profile picture
Nov 7
It amazes me that the most important metrics (lines of code, story points, cycle time, devex satisfaction) in development are the two that are never discussed, let alone measured ... mean time to answer (mttA) and mean time to question (mttQ).
Whenever we start with building a system or managing a legacy environment, we need to ask questions and get answers. Those are skills which can be hindered or supported by the toolset around you ...
... in the very worst cases, engineers are forced into reading code to try and understand a system. Upto 50% of development time can be spent on reading code ... a process we never question or optimise. That is madness.
Read 13 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Sep 26
X : Thoughts on a return to office policy?
Me : It happens for two basic reasons:-
1) loss of status symbols (top floor office etc). Many execs need these to say "I'm the boss"
2) headcount reduction (i.e. people will leave) due to a weakness in the finances.

Why?
X : What about productivity and innovation?
Me : Those are "reasons" given but they're all bogus and don't stand up to scrutiny. However, there is a third.
X : Colloboration?
Me : Stranded assets - offices etc. No exec likes looking at an empty building they spent £300M on.
X : Basically - status symbols, weaknesses of finances and political capital?
Me : Sounds about right.
X : Did you see Amazon has a return to office policy -
Me : Oh. That's concerning.geekwire.com/2024/survey-by…
Read 11 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Sep 9
X : Our strategy doesn't align with our business.
Me : How do you mean?
X : We create these strategy documents but they never really get implemented as the day to day business takes over.
Me : That's common. Can I ask a question?
X : Sure
Me : ...
Me : Do you map?
X : I've heard of your technique but we don't use it.
Me : Ok, so your business operations is not based upon a map of the landscape?
X : No
Me : And your strategy is not based upon a map of the landscape?
X : No
Me : What made you think they would align?
X : They are supposed to align and we wrote our strategy on our understanding of the business.
Me : Your wrote your strategy based upon stories. There's no means to create a consensus of your landscape, to challenge what your are doing. There is no mechanism for alignment.
Read 10 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Sep 5
X : Why do you continue to use twitter / X?
Me : Because I like the tool and the crowd.
X : Do you support @elonmusk
Me : No. I disagree on many of his views.
X : He is far right.
Me : Perspective matters. US is generally more right wing & Silicon Valley especially so.
X : What do you mean by "Perspective matters"?
Me : Elon's views are not that unusual for Silicon Valley - . There's a lot of support based upon a different view of economics and government.
X : Different?
Me : Different from Europe. cbsnews.com/news/trump-jd-…
Image
X : People should just accept it?
Me : No. They should argue against it. The "left" did itself no favours by diluting its voice across multiple platforms.
X : Are you left?
Me : I view the market as tool to be used in the common interest of society. I'm a socialist.
Read 20 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Aug 23
X : What do you need to do in order to map a business?
Me : Ask ...
1) "Who are the users?" (at the least, include consumers and the business)
2) "What are their needs?"
3) "What is the chain of components required to meet those needs?"
4) "How evolved are those components?"
...
Me : Once you have done that, allow others to challenge it. Even better, build the map with others. It really is that simple.
X : But creating a map is difficult.
Me : Only to those used to making decisions without understanding users, needs, the supply chain etc.
X : How common is that?
Me : In business? The majority of decisions tend to be made with no understanding of users, needs, supply chain and how evolved those components are. We tend to rely on gut feel and stories with little to no effective challenge.
Read 19 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
May 9
dX: How do you deal with strategy?
Me: First, we need to answer the Where question, which depends a lot on the what and why.
dX: And?
Me: Ok, some very simple steps ...
Step 1: Visualise your environment. That means getting people to discuss, collaborate & challenge in order to create a "good enough" map of your environment. Should be a couple of hours.
Step 2: Look at what's changing which is competitor moves, your moves & economic patterns.
Step 3: Using the map, determine where you could invest/focus on. You're not making a decision yet, you just want the options. By now, you could have spent four hours on the exercise.
Step 4: Decide where you should invest i.e. look at the options using why & what
Read 8 tweets

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