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Simon Wardley Profile picture
@swardley
Dec 13, 2021 • 20 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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X : Have you seen this cloud survey ...
Me : Hmmm. No separation of populations. Not interested.
X : Sorry?
Me : Ok, take a map ...
... the evolution axis comes from this curve ...
... that curve is made of multiple diffusion curves of ever improving (fit) instances of a thing, each with its own chasm ...
... which is why in the evolution of something there are "many" chasms to cross ...
... take a moment in time, the majority maybe on one diffusion curve (e.g. the latest instance of compute as a product i.e. servers) and the minority on another (i.e. compute as a utility i.e. cloud) - both share a common meaning of compute ...
... so if you take a map of say computing in 2006 ...
... roll it forward by applying common economic (climatic) patterns of evolution, componentisation and co-evolution ... then it was easy to see what actually then happened ...
.. the majority were focused on best architectural practice for compute as a product, the minority were focused on compute as a utility with DevOps ...
... roll it forward to 2015 then the same thing occurs around serverless with the majority focused around the runtime as a product (LAMP etc). FinOps wasn't a name then, just new practices were appearing ...
... then you can keep rolling it forward ... 2020 ...
... until say 2030 where all the lower order components start "disappearing" as they are abstracted away.
None of this is retrospective, this was all predicted with maps ... but that's not the point ... the point is where you should invest ...
... but look closely at the map. The majority today will tell you to invest in exactly the wrong places ... go do DevOps, go do IaaS ... great for 2010, terrible idea for 2021. You should be focused on serverless.
Me : So, when it comes to your cloud survey ... Simpson's paradox. If if doesn't seperate out the populations (and there are distinct populations in the DevOps world, it's not homogenous) then you're probably aggregating to exactly the wrong advice.
Me : There are some companies out there that are on the ball i.e. take a look at the work that @Liberty_IT is doing. But all these go IaaS, do DevOps, build hybrid claims from "aggregated" surveys are selling you the wrong path.
X : What do you mean by common meaning?
Me : Many of the components have a common meaning i.e.
Remember the labels on the axis at the bottom are just labels for the different stages of evolution (I to IV). We use different labels for different forms of capital ...
Hence DevOps is currently good (heading towards best) architectural practice for compute as a utility nee cloud. There are, and remain, different best architectural practices for compute as a product nee servers.
So, for example we have a whole bunch of emerging coding practices nee FinOps being built on the runtime as a utility nee serverless. These are different from coding practices (best) for the runtime as product ... take security as an example.
Anyway, this is all old hat ... as I said, this is not a retrospective, this was all said before and during the relevant events. The point I want to emphasise is if you take the aggregated majority view with these distinct populations then you will end up on the wrong path.

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More from @swardley

Simon Wardley Profile picture
May 9
dX: How do you deal with strategy?
Me: First, we need to answer the Where question, which depends a lot on the what and why.
dX: And?
Me: Ok, some very simple steps ...
Step 1: Visualise your environment. That means getting people to discuss, collaborate & challenge in order to create a "good enough" map of your environment. Should be a couple of hours.
Step 2: Look at what's changing which is competitor moves, your moves & economic patterns.
Step 3: Using the map, determine where you could invest/focus on. You're not making a decision yet, you just want the options. By now, you could have spent four hours on the exercise.
Step 4: Decide where you should invest i.e. look at the options using why & what
Read 8 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
May 5
Those born in the 1890s experienced electrification, telephone, radio, television, nuclear age, penicillin, two world wars, commercial flight, computer age and a moon landing. By the 60s we had AI, VR and 3D printing.

Today, we have the internet / www and have improved stuff.
Is it me, or is human progress slowing down? Great breakthroughs, moments of change, and radical transformations seem like a thing of the past. What we call "revolutions" in industry today seems mostly a marketing slogan.
If you think back to 1957 and the Mark I Perceptron machine that was built at Cornell, then consider the changes in the previous 60 years ... you can't help but think they would be bitterly disappointed with how slow we have progressed in the following 60 years.
Read 17 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Mar 25
No surprises, this was clearly signalled back in 2015.

During this decade has the US disentangled its reliance on China in the semiconductor industry?

I'll let you guess.
We will be entering a phase in which the US high-tech industry (including the military complex) is highly dependent upon China, whilst China is not dependent upon the US.
For those who doubt how clear the intentions were ... go read Made in China, 2025.

China's government made its intentions evident in 2015. The US sabre rattling of sanctions reinforced that purpose whilst the US essentially continued with a misguided "market knows best" policy.
Read 5 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Mar 5
A couple of prompts with Claude 3 creates a Wardley Map for economic sovereignty in the defence space.

Not bad at all -

On par with political, military and defence folk I've spoken to. I'm also finding I can have a reasonable discussion about mapping with Claude 3.onlinewardleymaps.com/#clone:XvHskIi…Image
It's not perfect but it's not bad. There's more I want to interrogate Claude over ... i.e. the link to secure sourcing, the positioning of some components etc. But it's almost good enough that I can start a discussion over strategy and investment.
Anyway, upshot is that Claude 3, from my perspective, has left ChatGPT4 in the dust. Of course, I'll use Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini to cross-compare for now but if I do start building anything more complex then the obvious path is AWS Bedrock which gives me Mistral etc.
Read 15 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 28
dX: What is the single most significant problem facing AI today? Safety? Lack of skills? Inertia?
Me: Overinflated expectations by the business.
dX: You don't think AI will become widespread?
Me: Of course, it will; industrialised components are rapidly becoming cost of doing business. Don't confuse that with expectations. There will be an awful lot of disappointed businesses hoping it would create some advantage.
dX: I don't understand.
Me: Imagine you're just finishing off your plan for how AI will revolutionise your business. Six months for budget approval, one year to build team, 18 months to deliver something ... that's 3 years from now. Any advantage you thought of is long gone.
Read 9 tweets
Simon Wardley Profile picture
Feb 16
For those who don't know, I'm working increasingly on and with Glamorous Toolkit - ... I have become fascinated by our willingness to blame humans for problems that are created by our toolsets ...gtoolkit.com
... I saw this last night at Cloud Camp. Apparently, the issues with understanding, explainability and observability in AI are down to humans' inability to deal with complex environments... no, they're not. The problem is with the tools and the type of tools we are creating ...
... we've imported concepts from a physical world where tools are constrained by physics - hence a hammer is a hammer, a drill is a drill - into a world without such constraints. Rather than building contextual tools, we've built constrained tools.
Read 7 tweets

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