I just closed the poll for deep dives in 2022. Some tight calls there, and some interesting data points about my subscribers.
Let me share the poll results in this thread.
2/ My email for the poll went out to ~800 annual subscribers. Open rate for the email was 71.4% and 298 participated in the poll. Pretty decent participation.
3/ Subscriber base for MBI Deep Dives is almost equally divided between individual investors and professional investors.
It's challenging to write for an audience with this level of diversity, but I relish it every month!
4/ ~80% of my subscribers came to know about MBI Deep Dives from twitter. Thank you, fintwit. 😍
5/ From large cap tech, the three that got the most votes: $ADBE, $ABNB, $CRM
6/ From SaaS, $TWLO, $NET, and $DDOG got the most votes. $TEAM was *this* close.
7/ The "fallen angel" I will do a deep dive next year is $PINS.
8/ From the compounder camp, I'll cover $CSU and $DHR.
$TDG missed by a few votes. Maybe in 2023...
9/ This one was pretty close. From the payments complex, I'll look at $ADYEY and $PYPL.
10/ Finally, from crypto, it's going to be Ethereum. A bit surprised by the difference of the votes on this one.
11/ "How likely are you to recommend MBI Deep Dives to your friends or colleagues?"
The score is decent, but my South Asian genes tempt me to consider this a barely passing grade. Thankfully, I have all the time to improve over time.
End/ I'm publishing $SPOT deep dive on Wednesday this week. Never had as much fun working on a deep dive as I did on Spotify.
"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."