3 day wait for COVID Testing is unacceptable

MOST dont quarantine while waiting

In fact asking everyone to quarantine while waiting days is poor public health -> Every 4 negatives is equal to 1 false positive in person-days

2 years in all should have rapid results

1/
We have to be thinking of tests used for public health with population metrics:

If delay is 3 days to get results:

Then for every 2 infectious ppl detected, the wait time alone (6 person days of the person spreading while waiting) is equal to missing 1 full infection

2/
So the EFFECTIVE SENSITIVITY of a 3 day delayed PCR approaches only 50-60%

You miss ~half of the infectious days - even if you ultimately diagnose nearly everyone. But it is the infectious days averted that is important for public health. Not identifying ppl afterwards

3/
And if ppl are quarantining while waiting (most don’t) then if wait time is 3 days, then

4 negatives = 12 person days unnecessarily in quarantine = 1 false positive result for every 4 negatives (in terms of unnecessary person-time quarantine)

Unacceptable

4/
When testing for Public Health

The 3 most important metrics to consider are

SPEED
FREQUENCY
ACCESS

FDA considers none of these 3

Yet these are almost always more important than the molecular sensitivity (specificity matters but can be easily boosted w fast confirmation)

5/

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Michael Mina

Michael Mina Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelmina_lab

12 Dec
How Far We’ve come!

@nytimes editorial board recommendations for how Americans can live with COVID in our midst

#1 suggestion:

Ubiquitous accessible #RapidTests

To empower us to breakthrough uncertainty and sever transmission

Smart public Health.

nytimes.com/2021/12/11/opi…
Here is a screenshot of their first couple of recommendations:

(Click the picture to see the full thing)
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
This study is important

For unscientific reasons we in scientific/academic community downplayed impact of Covid infections in effort to get more ppl vax’d

We publicly project that infections don’t offer much immunity -stating only Vax does -> but this goes against evolution

1/
My goal is to say simply -
Focus on the science and the data and what we know of biology. Then message and create policy off that.

Yes we want everyone vax’d. But really we want everyone protected. With >50% of Americans exposed/infected… we should at least consider this…

2:
We absolutely do not want ppl to intentionally go out and get infected. But we also can’t reverse time. We know a majority of Americans have been infected. Given that protection is derived from infection - assuming you do OK through it - we should leverage that, not ignore it

3:
Read 7 tweets
11 Dec
I am 1000% for vaccinations for all

I’m very distressed by the inequities in vaccination (including owing to low uptake due to misinformation, even by our own leaders)

But this was never a pandemic of the unvaccinated - It’s always a pandemic of a virus

theatlantic.com/health/archive…
I’ve been working w vax hesitant and anti vax groups for years BEFORE the pandemic

Blame and Shame has never, ever, been the appropriate tactic to change minds. This is a pandemic of a virus

Ppl are either scared or misinformed,

First thing is GAINING TRUST

1/
Shaming and blaming does the exact opposite of gaining trust.

We cannot overlook that we had and still have leaders who have confused the shit out of ppl. Scared them of vaccines. Told them over and over that the virus is not bad.

We don’t undo this by shaming

2/
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec
In summer, the northeast & US government called the pandemic a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” and blamed transmission in southeast on politics & vaccine hesitancy

As we see cases swamp the Northeast, I hope we remember that this is a pandemic of a virus

amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/12/08…
I feel like “we” are very quick to look for scapegoats as the rhetoric and force of scientists and politicians has become increasingly heated around vaccines.

Vaccines work extremely well, yes. But this remains a pandemic of a virus. The core problem is the virus.
Again - I am 1000% for vaccines & want every one to be vaccinated

I'm not in favor of blaming by our federal government rather than trying to better understand underlying / root cause of vaccine hesitancy and work towards that.

While remembering that the enemy is the virus.
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec
This new research helps confirm, unsurprisingly, that Omicron will be more difficult to control

Data here shows very large reduction in neutralization of Omicron among vax’d ppl.

This is Not end of the world at all, but confirms need for vigilance

ahri.org/wp-content/upl…
Additionally (and for a different thread) it is clear that concerns Of having a narrow vaccine as our primary intervention is going to come up short. It’s always been the case, despite media, that infections (should you do ok through them) would offer robust immunity.

2/
I’ve said many times we should be considering vaccines that are not solely a Wuhan strain spike only but perhaps boost, for example, w live attenuated or some other form of vax that offers immune system a broader education

As I said last year, Narrow vaccines can be shortsighted
Read 5 tweets
6 Dec
NOTE:

Do NOT use rapid tests in the cold.

If using rapid tests this holiday season and asking ppl to test before a gathering… or any time…

Suggest they be done before leaving the house, or in the car, etc. Someplace >55 F
Also, if your counter or table or wherever you are letting them sit for the 15 minutes is cold (like a granite countertop) - place it on top of the box or literally any other surface that’s not cold (wood table, book, etc)
Also - this is not the same as storage. If they are sitting inside the box not being used yet, then store ideally in a slightly cooler location - but don’t let them freeze - it can potentially impact their chemistry.

Ideally store below 80F
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(