The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its latest Mortality Monitor to 3 December (week 48).

There were 3% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as week 48 of 2019. That is 383 excess deaths in England and Wales this week. Image
CMI calculates 116,900 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic, of which 44,000 occurred in 2021.

Cumulative mortality YTD is 6.3% of a full year's mortality above 2019, though for now it remains lower than 2012, 2013, 2015 and of course 2020. Image
This analysis of death rates shows significantly fewer excess deaths than COVID deaths this week, as was also the case last week. This follows a long period where the calculated excess was consistently similar to the number of COVID deaths each week. Image
There’s an interesting pattern by age. Excess mortality relative to expected death rates has generally been higher at ages below 75 since mid-year. That gap widened further recently with very low, or even negative excess deaths at the oldest ages. Image
It is of course highly unusual to see sustained runs of excess deaths. The run of 22 weeks to day is the longest the CMI has seen through the pandemic.

Full report publicly available here: actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f… Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @COVID19actuary

Aug 22, 2023
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 11 August.

Death rates this week were 5% higher than the equivalent week in 2019. This implies 487 excess deaths in England and Wales. 1/4 Image
CMI calculates 202,300 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 30,800 in 2023.

Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 5.0% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. That is similar to this point in 2021. 2/4 Image
Calculated excess deaths (487) were much higher than the number of deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate (108). So there was a large “non-COVID excess” this week. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 13, 2023
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 31 March.

Death rates this week were significantly higher than the equivalent week in 2019. There were 1,210 more deaths, which is 12% more. 1/4 Image
CMI calculates 171,600 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 20,200 in the first quarter of 2023. That’s the worst quarterly excess since the peak of the second wave. 2/4 Image
Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 3.2% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12, 2023
Are A&E pressures really leading to hundreds of additional deaths each week? @ActuaryByDay and colleagues @LCP_Actuaries crunch the numbers and conclude that a significant number of patients could be dying because of long delays accessing emergency care.
covidactuaries.org/2023/01/11/are…
Looking only at the waiting time from the decision to admit the patient until the point of admission (the so called “trolley wait”) an additional 5,400 deaths within 30-days are estimated between Sep and Nov 2022. That’s 415 per week.
In reality, waits experienced by patients are sadly significantly longer. The chart below shows that the total attendances exceeding 4 hours are much higher than the “trolley waits” exceeding 4 hours.

Around 600,000 A&E attendances exceeded 4 hours in both Oct and Nov.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 29, 2022
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumns boosters: over 10m now boosted
- protection against Omicron from boosters and prior infection
- AZ nasal vaccine disappoints
- Pfizer bivalent vaccine approved in USA for age 5-11
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Also featured:
- Moderna bivalent booster outperforms original
- pre-Omicron infections don’t compromise immunity against Omicron
- Over 300 Omicron sublineages globally. BA.5 dominant but BQ.1 displacing it
- Evusheld available privately - at a price
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Also featured:
- NHS waiting list nears 7.5 million
- Analysis of Long COVID in Scotland and 22 countries
- latest ONS infections update
- hospital admissions currently falling
- Excess mortality remains high

covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Read 4 tweets
Oct 27, 2022
Hospital admissions with COVID have fallen significantly over the last week. The 7-day average for England is down 16%.

Our R estimate is around 0.9.

All regions have seen falls. SW is down by 27%; NW is down by 9%. Others are in between.

Bed occupancy also fell, down 12%. ImageImageImageImage
Admissions from hospital acquired infections appear to be falling more rapidly than admissions from the community. This perhaps indicates a restoration of more control measures within hospitals.

The proportion of patients with COVID where it is the primary diagnosis has remained fairly consistent at 36%.

This shows that the change has been similar between beds occupied by patients where COVID is the primary diagnosis and those where it isn’t. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21, 2022
In the first six months of 2022, deaths in Australia were 13% higher than predicted. There were 11,200 excess deaths.

There were 5,600 COVID deaths, representing just over half the excess.

covidactuaries.org/2022/10/21/exc…
The significant excess deaths in Australia in 2022 are in contrast to earlier stages of the pandemic.

Deaths in 2020 were 3% lower than expected, due to restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Deaths in 2021 were 2% higher than expected. Image
It isn’t possible to identify from death counts alone what is causing recent non-COVID excess mortality in Australia. We discuss possible explanations, suggesting that post-COVID sequelae and interactions with other causes of death are likely to be the most significant factor.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(