It has long been obvious, that the lack of interest in developing variant-specific vaxx reflects a pervasive acceptance of the phenomenon of Original Antigenic Sin among vaxx developers. wsj.com/articles/covid…
There’s always a minority of observers who treat my posts on Original Antigenic Sin like it’s some crackpot theory of human immunity, whereas in fact there’s an extensive literature behind it and it’s widely (if often silently) acknowledged among vaxx developers.
Filling in the blanks, I think there was an informal confidence that, because SARS-2 had been leaked, spike was already optimised. Mutations could only take it downhill. They gambled on vaxxing everyone against what they thought was the optimal form of the protein …
… and then got pwned when the VaRiANtZ emerged in late fall 2020, as via mechanisms unknown the SARS-2 spike achieved optimisations that GoF hadn’t been able to confer up on it.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
compiling this has been surprisingly useful for me. i want to experiment with this as a weekly (free) feature. i'd be enormously grateful if you send me your own report of local conditions at containment@tutanota.com.
moar downthread ...
especially impt: the mood on the street, the mood in the schools, who is supporting insane containment policies, who is opposed. brief summaries of major political debates as you see them. also any local knowledge that might effect our interpretation of your country's stats ...
i.e., 'people pay doctors for bogus vaxx certificates,' 'kids are subject to mandatory testing in school,' that kind of thing. i can translate the major euro languages (italian, french, german of course, spanish is a bit touch-and-go but I'll make it work) ...
From the most recent Public Health England vaccine surveillance report: For all age groups 40 and older, the fully vaccinated have higher rates of infection than the unvaccinated.
Time since 2nd dose is tightly correlated with age in the UK. The under-40s still haven't experienced full vaxx fade yet and enjoy some protection against infection.
the same chart from their week 36 report. you can see how the effect is stable and has gotten if anything more pronounced in the weeks since.