1/
Some further stats on #ES, this time focused on the 30min OR. As well observed by @Michigandolf on my last thread, results might be a bit skewed due to the high volatility in the past weeks. Similar as the last thread, these figures are also based on the past 90 days.
Some further stats on #ES, this time focused on the 30min OR. As well observed by @Michigandolf on my last thread, results might be a bit skewed due to the high volatility in the past weeks. Similar as the last thread, these figures are also based on the past 90 days.
2/
Some notes first:
• Figures are rounded to a quarter of a percent.
• Any breakout smaller than 3pts is counted as a false breakout.
• Time zone used is ET
Some notes first:
• Figures are rounded to a quarter of a percent.
• Any breakout smaller than 3pts is counted as a false breakout.
• Time zone used is ET
3/
General Stats:
• The OR is broken 97% of the time.
• 56.50% of the time there’s a retest of the OR boundary within 20m after the breakout.
• Average MFE after breakout: 20.00 pts.
• Minimum MFE after breakout: 4.00 pts.
• Maximum MFE after breakout: 60.50 pts.
General Stats:
• The OR is broken 97% of the time.
• 56.50% of the time there’s a retest of the OR boundary within 20m after the breakout.
• Average MFE after breakout: 20.00 pts.
• Minimum MFE after breakout: 4.00 pts.
• Maximum MFE after breakout: 60.50 pts.
4/
• OR high or low is broken on the 1st attempt 45% of the time.
• OR high or low is broken on the 2nd attempt 21% of the time.
• OR high or low is broken on the 3rd attempt or more 34% of the time.
• Price gets back inside the OR after breakout 63% of the time.
• OR high or low is broken on the 1st attempt 45% of the time.
• OR high or low is broken on the 2nd attempt 21% of the time.
• OR high or low is broken on the 3rd attempt or more 34% of the time.
• Price gets back inside the OR after breakout 63% of the time.
5/
• If one end of the OR is rejected, price will tag the OR middle 54% of the time.
• If one end of the OR is rejected, price will tag or break the other end 41.75% of the time.
• If one end of the OR is rejected, price will tag the OR middle 54% of the time.
• If one end of the OR is rejected, price will tag or break the other end 41.75% of the time.
6/
• If price gets back inside the OR after a breakout, the OR mid will be tagged 28% of the time.
• If price gets back inside the OR after a breakout, the other end of the OR will be tagged/broken 56% of the time.
• If price gets back inside the OR after a breakout, the OR mid will be tagged 28% of the time.
• If price gets back inside the OR after a breakout, the other end of the OR will be tagged/broken 56% of the time.
7/
Time of 1st breakout:
• Right at 10.00: 32.25% of the time.
• In the first 30min after OR is established: 30.75% of the time.
• < 1 hour after OR is established: 8.00% of the time.
• > 1 hour after OR is established but before 1 p.m.: 16.25% of the time.
Time of 1st breakout:
• Right at 10.00: 32.25% of the time.
• In the first 30min after OR is established: 30.75% of the time.
• < 1 hour after OR is established: 8.00% of the time.
• > 1 hour after OR is established but before 1 p.m.: 16.25% of the time.
8/
Summary
• Always go for a breakout of the OR first.
• If you miss the breakout, there’s a good chance you can get in on a retest of the OR boundary.
• If price gets back into the OR, play for a second breakout.
Summary
• Always go for a breakout of the OR first.
• If you miss the breakout, there’s a good chance you can get in on a retest of the OR boundary.
• If price gets back into the OR, play for a second breakout.
9/
• Unless there’s a clear signal to do it, it’s not worth going for a breakout to the other side of the OR of a previous breakout.
• If one end of the OR is rejected, chances are practically 100% that at least the OR middle will be reached.
• Unless there’s a clear signal to do it, it’s not worth going for a breakout to the other side of the OR of a previous breakout.
• If one end of the OR is rejected, chances are practically 100% that at least the OR middle will be reached.
10/
• If price gets back into the OR after a breakout, chances are very high that at least the OR mid will be reached.
I hope you guys find this helpful. Have a great day!
• If price gets back into the OR after a breakout, chances are very high that at least the OR mid will be reached.
I hope you guys find this helpful. Have a great day!
11/
An addition:
Here's a more detailed view of the MFE after each OR breakout. Might come handy when thinking about R:R.
An addition:
Here's a more detailed view of the MFE after each OR breakout. Might come handy when thinking about R:R.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
