Thread by @EggPlatypus

$BSN/ $EVTL - merger vote successful, ticker change tomorrow 12/16. This is looking like the best squeeze candidate since $GWH, possible $IRNT-like run. Why? This is an optionable SPAC with a likely tiny between 1.8-2.8m shares. Heres where that float comes from: 👇

Sponsor $BSN stated "over $300m" proceeds to be delivered from the deal. Would assume theyd say $325 if that was the value, so can est total proceeds of $305-315m.
spacinsider.com/2021/12/13/bro…

Of those proceeds, $200m are Mudrick Cap senior convertible notes and $94m are PIPE. That leaves somewhere between $11-$21m from the $BSN SPAC trust. At pf $10/sh, thats 1.1-2.1m public $BSN/ $EVTL shares.

In addtn to that, 10% of sponsor shares and insider shares are NOT locked up. However, per the F-4, the only shares yet registered with SEC are the public SPAC shares and sponsor shares. Shares are rqrd to be registered prior to public trading.
sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

So, unlocked $BSN sponsor shares are 0.76m. That gives us a current float likely somewhere in the range of **1.86 to 2.86m**. And, this has options.

Supporting evid: post-redemption/pre-merger avg daily volume (ADV).
For $BSN, that ADV was ~79k per day despite pre-redempt float being 30.5m. Looking back through June of this year, not a single other SPAC with pre-redempt float of 25-35m ever traded below 165k after redemptions

Of the SPACs that DID trade this low, they tended to result in floats under 3m ( $AGIL, $SNAX, $EFTR, $ARBE, $SRZN, $RKLZ, $MIMO). Couple exceptions are $HLBZ, and $SNCE.

With $ESSC, the "locked up" FPA arbs somehow managed to get out of their agreement and dumped on mkt (or were lending their shares). $BBAI & $BOXD have FPA arbs in it enacting a ceiling on share price in low 10s. $BSN/ $EVTL has NEITHER of these issues

IMO, $BSN/ $EVTL offers a very asymmetric bet with est. float of 1.86-2.86m shares and option chain extending to 17.5 strike through spring 2022. Potential for a $GWH or $IRNT style run. Disclaimer: Im long shares and calls.

Note on this plot: purple line is the post-redemption ADV for $BSN/ $EVTL. Of spacs that traded under that ADV, 7/9 had final floats under 3m shares