🧵 What does military build up in #Tripoli mean ahead of elections?
Tripoli military region’s commander Abdel Baset Marwan was removed by the GNU’s Presidential Council today sparking major military build up in the capital 8 days before scheduled elections.
Marwan was particularly close to leadership of 3 armed groups in Tripoli: TRB/Nawassi/Ghnewa
In October 2020 a rival Tripoli brigade the 444 brigade stormed Marwan’s house in an attempt to arrest him. This almost sparked a new round of conflict.
Today the Presidential Council replaced him with Brigadier Gen Abdel Qadar Saad Khalifa.
Khalifa participated in the GNA’s defence of Tripoli against Haftar’s LAAF in 2019. He developed strong ties to Radda/444 during this time.
Here is a video of the situation from outside the PM’s office tonight in Tripoli.
The vehicles of 3 armed groups are now outside & environs but there have been no clashes.
Other groups are not challenging but there is a major military build up throughout the city.
The city’s armed group are tense & divided between
TRB/Ghnewa/Nawassi
vs
444/Radda brigades
who are (yet) to respond.
Two major external forces are also yet to make a move.
Finally Haftar is also in backchannel talks with groups which could provoke security situation.#Libya
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In last few hours interim PM Abdelhamid Dbaibah has been ruled out of running for Presidency ❌
Saif Al Islam Gaddafi has also been barred from running this week ❌
Leaving only Khalifa Haftar ✅
Why is Dbeibah out?
At least 2 other candidates Aref Nayed & Fathi Bashagha filed against him based on disputed elections law.
The case?
Dbeibah pledged not to run when he took power & holds dual nationality (St Kitts)
So does Aref Nayed (Canada) & another Khalifa Haftar (US)
Why is Saif Al Islam ineligible?
In 2015 he was tried in absentia in connection to killings of civilians during Feb 17 uprising. Despite this, Saif has filed an appeal in court & issued a hand written statement asking his followers to collect their ballots.