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Ali Vaez Profile picture
@AliVaez
Dec 16, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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بیش از یک دهه است که بر بحران هسته ای ایران تمرکز کرده ام. در این سالها انواع اتهامات به من زده شده: از داماد زاهدی گرفته تا کارمند سیا، از لابی ج.ا. و مشاور ظریف گرفته تا هزاردستان و کارمند سوروس. هرگز اهمیتی به این حرفها و هجمه ها نداده و نمی دهم. اصل مواضع فرد است 1/
مهمترین مواضع من و گروه بحران در سالهای اخیر به این شرح بوده است:
- مخالفت با اقدام ترامپ در تضعیف برجام حتی پیش از خروج آمریکا
2/
- مخالفت با فشار حداکثری و یکی از رساترین صداها در مخالفت با تحریم ها و لابی های مربوطه
3/
- تشریح اقدامات ایران در پاسخ به سیاست فشار حداکثری
4/
- توصیه به یافتن راهکار برای مقابله با تأثیرات سوء تحریم ها در میانه پاندمی کرونا
5/
- سرپرستی جامع ترین پروژه پژوهشی تا به امروز در مورد آثار سوءتحریم ها، شامل تبعات اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی آنها بر جامعه و محیط زیست ایران
6/
 rethinkingiran.com/iran-under-san…
- هشدار به ایران و آمریکا در شرط و شروط گذاشتن برای بازگشت به برجام و زمان را به نفع خود پنداشتن، چراکه زمان و فرصت‌های گرانبها را هدر خواهند داد و هر دو با تبعات سوء مواجه خواهند شد.
7/
 crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
- ایراد جدی به دولت بایدن برای نپذیرفتن مسؤلیت آمریکا در بدعهدی و اقدام برای جبران مافات با توجه به خسارت عظیم مالی و جانی سیاست گمراهانه دولت ترامپ
8/
-در مثل مناقشه نیست، ولی انتخاب واژه "صاحبخانه" در مثالی که استفاده کردم بدسلیقگی بود، چرا که آمریکا را طرف قرارداد می دانم، نه صاحبخانه/کدخدا. اما همانطور که هر وقت آمریکا با آتش بازی کرده هشدار داده ام، وقتی هم ایران رویکرد غیرسازنده ای را دنبال کند، دلیلی بر سکوت نمی بینم.
9/
- اصولا خاکستری دیدن دشوار است. مفاهیم سیاه و سفید/ شر و باطل کار تحلیل را ساده تر می کنند. ولی من به رویکرد میانه خود ادامه خواهم داد چرا که تاثیرگزاری ام نتیجه همین رویکرد است، نه اعتبار و یا خدشه ای که جزر و مد فضای مجازی تولید می کند.
پایان/10

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More from @AliVaez

Ali Vaez Profile picture
Nov 7
When President @realDonaldTrump takes office in January 2025, the #Iran his administration will face will be, relative to four years earlier, weaker on several fronts, and changed on several others. 🧵 Image
2/ Domestically, absence of major protests for ~2 years cannot obscure deep gap between state and society.

Social, cultural, political and economic discontent persist, while government's default remains repression over any meaningful reform to address them.
3/ Regionally, setbacks to Hamas & Hezbollah have weakened parts of IRI "Axis of Resistance", though others continue to pose a threat to Israel/U.S. interests. Meanwhile, prospect of retaliation for Israel's 26 Oct attacks - and counter-strikes in response - remain significant.
Read 9 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Sep 28
With the killing of Hizbollah's leader, Iran & its "Axis of Resistance" have suffered the biggest in a series of setbacks that began mounting late last year. And for the third time since April, what was seen as IRI's regional strengths underscore its strategic vulnerabilities. 🧵
2/ After Hamas's attack on 7 October and the start of Israel's military campaign in Gaza, the "Ring of Fire" approach of mobilizing against Israel on multiple fronts - notably from the north - we started to see a more concerted counter-Axis campaign that had three main elements.
3/ The first was an uptick in operations against IRGC personnel, especially in Syria. That culminated in April with the killing of several senior IRGC commanders, to which Iran responded with an overt and direct military attack against Israel.
Read 8 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Aug 2
For 10 months, the specter of a regional conflict has loomed over the Middle East. Haniyeh's killing in Tehran now threatens to realize a scenario all sides have worked assiduously to avoid: A major multifront showdown b/w the Axis of Resistance and Israel/U.S. 🧵👇
2| Iran likely sees Haniyeh's killing a worse affront than the April strike in Damascus that prompted it to launch a direct aerial assault on Israel. It once again exposed intel lapses, took place on home soil, and targeted a high-level visitor on @drpezeshkian's inauguration.
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3| Moreover, it upended any notion of the April exchange having deterred Israel from targeting Iran directly (at the time, Israel responded with a pinpoint strike near a nuclear facility, more to signal vulnerability than inflict damage).
Read 10 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Jun 29
The first round of #Iran's presidential elections created a lose-lose-lose dynamic.

Here is how: 🧵👇🏼
1. The establishment was hoping that by allowing a slightly more competitive election, it could boost turnout and claim that its wounded legitimacy has recovered. The participation rate fell by 8% compared to 2021, marking a real embarrassment for the leadership.
2. The reformists brought out the big guns and tried their best to mobilize their base. Pezeshkian adopted a non-confrontational and traditionalist approach to grab votes from the conservatives. Yes, he ended up leading, but it simply was insufficient.
Read 8 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Sep 27, 2023
در دهه گذشته من با اتهامات متعدد و متناقضی روبرو شده‌ام. از دست نشانده آمریکا تا حامی جمهوری اسلامی تا آلت دست انگلیس. من عموماً به تهمت‌های بی‌اساس که هدفی جز تخریب شخصیت ندارند واکنش نشان نمی‌دهم.
اما این بار پاسخ می‌دهم چراکه با سطح سخیفی از روزنامه‌نگاری مواجه هستیم.
2| من در سال 2012، زمانی که مذاکرات هسته‌ای در حال شکل گیری بود، به گروه بحران پیوستم. آن دوران مصادف شد با فشرده‌ترین و مستمرترین تعاملات دیپلماتیک بین ایران و ایالات متحده در سه دهه گذشته. حضور 5 کشور دیگر و مجموعه‌ای از مسائل بسیار فنی را هم به پیچیدگی قضیه می‌افزود.
3| در گروه بحران ما همیشه دیدگاه‌های همه ذینفعان و بازیگران درگیر در یک بحران را - چه آنهایی که با آنها موافقیم و چه آنهایی که با آنها موافق نیستیم - در نظر می‌گیریم. و این اصل نه تنها در مورد ایران، بلکه در مورد تمام کشورهایی که ما روی آنها کار می‌کنیم صادق است.
Read 25 tweets
Ali Vaez Profile picture
Sep 26, 2023
Over the past decade, I've been called an American agent, an Iranian regime sympathizer and a British stooge.

I usually choose to dismiss such defamatory nonsense.

But on this occasion, I'm going to respond, because this is straight up hatchet journalism.
Image
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2 | When I joined @CrisisGroup in 2012, it was just as the nuclear negotiations were taking shape - the most sustained, intensive diplomatic engagement between the US & Iran in over three decades. Add to that 5 other nations and a highly technical set of issues.
3| Our analytical work has always been informed by the perspectives of all relevant stakeholders - those with whom we agree, and those with whom we do not. That holds true for each of the conflict situations @CrisisGroup covers, including Iran.
Read 32 tweets

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