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Ali Vaez

@AliVaez

Dec 16, 2021 • 10 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

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بیش از یک دهه است که بر بحران هسته ای ایران تمرکز کرده ام. در این سالها انواع اتهامات به من زده شده: از داماد زاهدی گرفته تا کارمند سیا، از لابی ج.ا. و مشاور ظریف گرفته تا هزاردستان و کارمند سوروس. هرگز اهمیتی به این حرفها و هجمه ها نداده و نمی دهم. اصل مواضع فرد است 1/

مهمترین مواضع من و گروه بحران در سالهای اخیر به این شرح بوده است:
- مخالفت با اقدام ترامپ در تضعیف برجام حتی پیش از خروج آمریکا
2/

- مخالفت با فشار حداکثری و یکی از رساترین صداها در مخالفت با تحریم ها و لابی های مربوطه
3/

- تشریح اقدامات ایران در پاسخ به سیاست فشار حداکثری
4/

- توصیه به یافتن راهکار برای مقابله با تأثیرات سوء تحریم ها در میانه پاندمی کرونا
5/

- سرپرستی جامع ترین پروژه پژوهشی تا به امروز در مورد آثار سوءتحریم ها، شامل تبعات اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی آنها بر جامعه و محیط زیست ایران
6/
rethinkingiran.com/iran-under-san…

- هشدار به ایران و آمریکا در شرط و شروط گذاشتن برای بازگشت به برجام و زمان را به نفع خود پنداشتن، چراکه زمان و فرصت‌های گرانبها را هدر خواهند داد و هر دو با تبعات سوء مواجه خواهند شد.
7/
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

- ایراد جدی به دولت بایدن برای نپذیرفتن مسؤلیت آمریکا در بدعهدی و اقدام برای جبران مافات با توجه به خسارت عظیم مالی و جانی سیاست گمراهانه دولت ترامپ
8/

-در مثل مناقشه نیست، ولی انتخاب واژه "صاحبخانه" در مثالی که استفاده کردم بدسلیقگی بود، چرا که آمریکا را طرف قرارداد می دانم، نه صاحبخانه/کدخدا. اما همانطور که هر وقت آمریکا با آتش بازی کرده هشدار داده ام، وقتی هم ایران رویکرد غیرسازنده ای را دنبال کند، دلیلی بر سکوت نمی بینم.
9/

- اصولا خاکستری دیدن دشوار است. مفاهیم سیاه و سفید/ شر و باطل کار تحلیل را ساده تر می کنند. ولی من به رویکرد میانه خود ادامه خواهم داد چرا که تاثیرگزاری ام نتیجه همین رویکرد است، نه اعتبار و یا خدشه ای که جزر و مد فضای مجازی تولید می کند.
پایان/10

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More from @AliVaez

Ali Vaez

@AliVaez

Jan 29

After the June war, the Islamic Republic took away several lessons.

Unfortunately, they're almost uniformly the wrong ones. 1/

2/ By any objective measure, the 12 day war was a lopsided affair: Iran's defensive capabilities were AWOL, its missiles and drones mostly repelled, and its intelligence failures were massive.

Yet the IRI's narrative is that the conflict was a victory.

3/ This narrative is based on a couple of elements - the ability to maintain command and control despite opening strikes against senior military leadership, U.S./Israeli request for ceasefire, and the fact that the system was, at the end, still standing.

Read 10 tweets

Ali Vaez

@AliVaez

Jan 7

For nearly two weeks, protests sparked by Iran's economic turmoil have spread into the latest wave of nationwide anti-regime unrest.

A system already struggling to contend with unprecedented setbacks in its foreign & regional policy now faces major new challenges from below.🧵

2/ 2024 was annus horribilis for the Islamic Republic and its "Axis of Resistance": Hamas & Hizbollah were severely degraded by Israel's post-7 Oct campaigns, Bashar Al-Assad was toppled in Damascus, the two exchanges with Israel showed limits of offensive/defensive capacity.

3/ 2025 was even worse.

Negotiations with the US were fruitless, sanctions increased, and in June Israel launched a major attack that set back its nuclear/missile programs, and revealed substantial intel vulnerabilities.

The system was still standing. But badly scathed.

Read 14 tweets

Ali Vaez

@AliVaez

Sep 27, 2025

Ten years and ten weeks after the adoption of UNSCR 2231, the implementation of snapback completes the paperwork for burying the JCPOA.

It's a milestone confirming, legally and bureaucratically, what has for 3 years been a diplomatic and technical reality. 🧵

2/ @CrisisGroup has been following this file for 20+ years. The 6 resolutions that return at midnight GMT are the revived legacy of the first decade of the nuclear crisis - an era of deepening standoff between Iran and the (somewhat but not always aligned) P5+1 powers.

3/ That was followed by what could be broadly termed the JCPOA decade - U.S./Iran backchannels, an interim deal in 2013, followed by the agreement itself - which is what UNSCR 2231 unanimously endorsed in 2015.

Read 13 tweets

Ali Vaez

@AliVaez

Apr 15, 2025

Iran's nuclear program is at the most advanced point its ever been. Breakout time is under a week. Transparency is limited.

Yet we're still debating dismantlement vs rollback/restrictions as though it's not an issue with a pretty conclusive track record.🧵

2/ Successive U.S. administrations have all agreed on one thing: The Islamic Republic having a nuclear weapon is bad for U.S. national security interests.

That premise leads to two possible approaches: Dismantle it, or work to minimize the proliferation risk.

3/ The former has an unblemished record of failure over a period of decades. The possibility of that record changing now is nil.

Read 10 tweets

Ali Vaez

@AliVaez

Feb 6, 2025

This week, the Trump administration issued NSPM-2, laying out the economic and diplomatic tools of a renewed "Maximum Pressure" campaign, while POTUS @realDonaldTrump called for a "Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement" with Iran.

🧵 on reading the early tea leaves.

2/ In 2018-20, "Max Pressure" post-U.S. withdrawal from JCPOA put a massive dent in Iran's economy. Iran retaliated with a two-pronged counter-pressure campaign: nuclear escalation and regional provocation. There was little substantive engagement/diplomacy between the two sides.

3/ Under the Biden admin, talks in 2021-22 to revive the JCPOA came to naught. De-escalatory understandings in 2023 collapsed after Hamas's 7 October attack against Israel. U.S. focus turned to avoiding widening of conflict, and defending allies and interests.

Read 13 tweets

Ali Vaez

@AliVaez

Nov 7, 2024

When President @realDonaldTrump takes office in January 2025, the #Iran his administration will face will be, relative to four years earlier, weaker on several fronts, and changed on several others. 🧵

2/ Domestically, absence of major protests for ~2 years cannot obscure deep gap between state and society.

Social, cultural, political and economic discontent persist, while government's default remains repression over any meaningful reform to address them.

3/ Regionally, setbacks to Hamas & Hezbollah have weakened parts of IRI "Axis of Resistance", though others continue to pose a threat to Israel/U.S. interests. Meanwhile, prospect of retaliation for Israel's 26 Oct attacks - and counter-strikes in response - remain significant.

Read 9 tweets

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