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Chris Turnbull Profile picture
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17 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
More dodgy maths here from South Africa's health Minister: who I know is under intense pressure to downplay what's happening on the international stage: but this statement is not correct: in Gauteng, where the outbreak started hospitalisations have been 5x HIGHER relative
To the first four weeks of Delta (3rd) and Beta (2nd) waves:

Based on much lower number of cases at the start of the wave:

We also have reports from SA that many are reporting to hospital later than normal: rather than 7-8 days after diagnosis, 14-21 days: so we can expect more will show up in hospital: assuming they are still taking people in.
as we can see South Africa over took the UK in terms of hospitalisations in just a matter of week: and they have far fewer cases than we will shortly have.
The cases continue to rise in South Africa: they have not peaked: my personal thoughts are they will bring cases down quite soon: but this will be through strong action, not a 'natural peak' as is claimed.

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More from @EnemyInAState

Chris Turnbull Profile picture
17 Dec
"A new study out of Columbia University says the Omicron variant is “markedly resistant” to vaccines and boosters might not do much to help, spelling bad news for the country as Omicron spreads and COVID-19 cases rise nationally."
Lol, how long did it take them to find this out? we knew this from as soon as Omicron was announced: 3 weeks ago now.
It's no coincidence of course that they've delayed telling people the truth: boosters will continue to be given as the answer regardless of how ineffective they are against Omicron: they are still worth trying though as they protect agains Delta to some degree.
Read 5 tweets
Chris Turnbull Profile picture
17 Dec
1/Crushing Chest pains: 'can't fill my lungs with air properly': Families' Xmas Dinner & Gathering urns into Omicron Hell as an entire group of 35 are Infected: with the youngest having the most severe illness: all adults fully vaccinated.
2/As Omicron takes hold in London we are hearing more and more reports of an increase in severity: especially in young people, with crushing chest pains and shortness of breath reportedly much more frequently in the young with no underlying conditions.
3/Last Saturday (11 December) 20 adults, comprising of 10 separate households went for a meal to celebrate Xmas in a swanky London restaurant: all vaccinated, and all had taken lateral flow tests beforehand: testing negative.
Read 17 tweets
Chris Turnbull Profile picture
17 Dec
Headteacher in Hertfordshire school: 'we're closing early' as staff are 'on their knees' with over 30 vaxxed and boosted staff confirmed positive and at least 150 kids this term: some of which have still NOT RECOVERED:

He also says that many staff who've been sent int to cover the sickness are 'people walking around with colds and all sorts of things, so we're going to close'

Many schools in the Tory heartlands of Hertfordshire are having to close due to the Omicron outbreaks: which follow
The never ending battle since the start of term against the virus; especially in the Tory heartlands like Hertfordshire: where mask wearing is still seen as some quaint asian people thing: not in blightly thank you very much!
Read 5 tweets
Chris Turnbull Profile picture
17 Dec
It's not just faster: there's more hospitalisations based on the cases!!! SA has reported that patients, especially kids are actually showing up later than normal: ie 2-3 weeks after diagnosis...so it seems to be bother faster, and more severe.
Denmark has already reported almost double the amount of admissions for Omicron based on cases vs other variants: so it's not just not a case of sending people to hospital faster, it's also more severe!!!

London is showing the same pattern: look at the hospitalisations! and this is based on relatively low cases: even if you go back a week.

Read 10 tweets
Chris Turnbull Profile picture
17 Dec
Omicron: London is at the centre of the outbreak, in particular East London: almost all hospitals in East are showing doublings in admissions vs last week. And the omicron variant has only just started.
The doctrine of less severe but more transmissible doesn't appear to hold up so well does it? Given that we already see higher hosplisation rates and the variant has only been around for a few weeks with low cases.
Remember that the cases are in the young mainly, so the people being hospitalised will be young for the most part: just as how this started in South Africa.
Read 4 tweets
Chris Turnbull Profile picture
17 Dec
5x increase in children admitted to Great Ormond Street Hospital in the last 2 weeks

There are 2.6x more admissions vs same time last year.

More than 1 child admitted a day over the last 2 weeks.
There is a 3 fold increase in in-patients as well: with 9 children now reported to be hospital in-patients, there were 3 just 14 days ago.
Children ventilated has also increased by 3 x in the last 2 weeks: going from 0 to 3 as of 14 December: (the latest numbers we have.)

33% of the child in patients are on vents.
Read 7 tweets

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