Super cycle is practically confirmed at this point.

We're at end Dec & yet there's no bull-run "grand finale" in sight. If your strategy was to cash out at "cycle top", time to rethink that.
There's nothing wrong w/ planning a cash out at mkt top, but my Q to you is what are you going to do w/ that money instead once you sell?
If you sit on cash you'd lose outright b/c fiat depreciation. Stock mkt valuation at current level implies negative return for next 10 yrs if history is reference. Real estate valuation is equally frothy.
You'd be delusional to think those mrks would be better investments once you cash out from crypto, as the latter is on expo growth path while tradFi mkts are more mean reverting.
Aside from taking money out to make lifestyle purchases, there's hardly a better mkt to invest in the world than crypto, bull market or not.

You say, I'll sell cycle top & buy back later.
Great if you manage to do that. But keep in mind even in last proper "cycle", bear mkt really only lasted a yr.

This time it's more likely to be shorter or mrk just goes sideways forever for anybody to catch an actual "bottom".
And crypto mkt is fast on the way up. If you blink the train has already passed you.
Obv it's your money you do as you please. This isn't investment advice. My point is simply don't assume you're smarter than the mkt.

Humbly riding along w/ mega growth trends may be a much easier life than trying to be clever.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tascha

Tascha Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TaschaLabs

12 Dec
2021 was good to crypto.

Next year things will look different b/c of changes in macro environment & tech adoption cycle.

Here are top 3 crypto investment themes I’m bullish 📈 & bearish 📉 about for 2022 👇
First, a word on 2021.

Loose fiscal / loose monetary conditions since pandemic floated boats for all risk assets—> total crypto market cap increased 300% y/y.
Hyper growth in valuation was also fueled by crypto finding real use cases, for the 1st time ever, in DeFi & NFT.

Total DeFi TVL increased 1600% y/y.
Read 36 tweets
3 Dec
Whoever said “money can’t buy happiness” didn’t know how to spend their $$.

Buying random shiny objects gets you short-lived dopamine hits. But investment in yourself gives you lasting joy.

Here’s Tascha Lab’s holiday🎄 shopping list📝 for more happiness, health & freedom 👇
SUPPLEMENTS

The secret to no-fuss happiness: having your brain nourished, rested & protected from chronic stress.

And since most of us plebs ain’t got ass like the Kardashians’, we have to resort to brain as the money-maker. All the more reason to treat it well.
That’s why I’m always trying new supplements for cognitive function & these are my staples.
Read 34 tweets
26 Nov
A checklist for layer 1 blockchain investment ✅

The day when ethereum is one & only in smart contract world is behind us. There’re > 40 L1 & L2 chains w/ more to come.

A framework to help you assess which ones will win & if you’re the operator, how to grow your own chain 👇
The big picture: instead of thinking of L1 chains like companies, they should be considered as ecosystems similar to sovereign economies.
You can argue all day abt which chain has faster settlement or is more decentralized. But end of day the value of a L1 depends on size & productivity of applications built on top, i.e. its on-chain GDP.
Read 48 tweets
14 Nov
Crypto will eat fiat.

But it’s not in the way you think.

Monetary policy sovereignty of every country on earth will be weakened by crypto in coming decades.

A rundown of how it may play out, in short term & long term 👇
First off, to clear a common myth popularized by maxis of every stripe— large cap cryptos like BTC, ETH, SOL do not directly compete w/ fiat money & won’t replace latter in foreseeable future.
To be a good unit of account & medium of exchange (2 key value props of any currency), price of token vis-a-vis real world goods & services needs to be stable.

If 1 xyz token buys you an iPhone today, it’d better still buy you roughly the same iPhone 1 yr, 2 yrs…from now.
Read 48 tweets
11 Nov
In a new episode @zhusu & @hasufl talked abt my recent thread on valuing L1 blockchains like countries.

It's a great podcast, but misunderstood some of my points. Not their fault as issue is complex & my thread was brief.

Here're some clarifications:

First off, this is my original thread on how to value layer 1 chains, for your reference.
1. It scared some people when I said the value of a chain comes from size of its economy, not protocol profits.

Cuz on surface it rings similar to what you heard in dot-com boom: "companies don't need profits", which turned out a market topping signal.

Read 24 tweets
6 Nov
Many people try to value layer 1 blockchain tokens like stocks.

That’s absurd.

Instead of pricing Ethereum, Solana & so on like *companies*, you should price them like *countries*.

Here’s how.
The #1 wrong way to value layer 1 tokens: earnings multiples.

Some people apply value investing framework for stocks to blockchains, and come up with price/earnings, price/sales ratios for ETH, SOL, AVAX, etc.
Unsurprisingly, these ratios look astronomically high. So high that they’d give any value investing devotee a heart attack. Image
Read 42 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(