I agree with Tom on most things, but not this. North Shropshire is a rural constituency where Labour have a lowish ceiling in all circumstances. It'd voted for Tories ever since 1832.
In such constituencies, and plenty of other places besides, only the Lib Dems have a chance.
In such constituencies, and plenty of other places besides, only the Lib Dems have a chance.
https://twitter.com/TomLondon6/status/1471829304313012224
The reason why Labour were well ahead of them in 2019 was... Brexit. North Shropshire was a heavy Leave-voting constituency, and the Lib Dems wanted to unilaterally overturn Brexit.
That issue has now faded into the background and probably the past, as many of us always said.
That issue has now faded into the background and probably the past, as many of us always said.
That's one of the biggest lessons of last night. The Brexit-Remain schism is mostly over.
That may mean the cultural war is too - with massive consequences for the Blue Wall, because so many only voted Tory temporarily, and they've been comprehensively betrayed since.
That may mean the cultural war is too - with massive consequences for the Blue Wall, because so many only voted Tory temporarily, and they've been comprehensively betrayed since.
That is to say: despite Labour coming a miserable 3rd, Starmer's softly softly catchee monkey strategy is actually being steadily vindicated. At this stage at least.
So much depends on who the next Tory leader is - and don't forget the impact of ID at polling stations...
So much depends on who the next Tory leader is - and don't forget the impact of ID at polling stations...
But as things stand, my current projection for the next general election is a Labour-led minority government, propped up by the SNP and the Lib Dems.
I'm also utterly convinced we've hit the 1990-style turning point now. That is to say that the next government will either be:
- Tories with a hugely reduced majority who are then utterly wiped out between 2027 and 2029
- Tories with a hugely reduced majority who are then utterly wiped out between 2027 and 2029
- Or the Labour minority government which the exit polls forecast in 1992.
The only election in my lifetime which I thank God that Labour lost - because Black Wednesday was only 5 months later, and would absolutely have happened in the same way under Kinnock as under Major.
The only election in my lifetime which I thank God that Labour lost - because Black Wednesday was only 5 months later, and would absolutely have happened in the same way under Kinnock as under Major.
By 'turning point', I mean that it's now only a matter of time before the Tories fall from power. The pressure on them will build and build even if they somehow win next time.
You cannot stretch the electoral elastic beyond 15 years without there being a MASSIVE price to pay.
You cannot stretch the electoral elastic beyond 15 years without there being a MASSIVE price to pay.
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