1/ China’s e-commerce, with the highest online penetration (30%+), serves as a playbook of how the industry might evolve:
Search-based -> Social E-comm (2018) -> On-demand (2020) -> Live Streaming (2021+)
The industry, though very mature, has become MORE fragmented over time
2/ Where’s the rest of the world following China’s playbook:
- US: early days for Live Streaming E-commerce (all big platforms plus start-ups)
- SEA and LatAm: social e-commerce (Shopee)
Globally, the line between online media and e-commerce platforms is blurring...
3/ Key stats of China's Live Streaming E-commerce:
- 400mm users (50% of total e-commerce users)
- Already a $200bn market (15% of total e-comm), expect to take 30% market share by 2025E
- Growing 3x faster vs. industry
- Top platforms: Taobao Live + Douyin + Kuaishou
4/ Unit Economics of Live Streaming E-commerce:
- KOLs and celebrities take 20%+
- Increasingly we are seeing GMVs generated by brands themselves
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New segmentation for its business segments (see below) was provided. International commerce, local services and Cainiao used to be all lumped under "China Commerce".
2/ Taobao/Tmall: a more mature, lower growth business going forward
- It will take some time to counter "market uncertainties", i.e. changing consumer behavior and competition
- "1+X" strategy to address more shopping scenarios and product categories (home décor, groceries)
3/ Deals/Taocaicai/Local Services: in investment mode as the company plays catch up
- New investments will be focused on multiple areas: lower-tier cities, grocery, international, Cainiao, and cloud
- Expect losses to gradually narrow as scale increases