alexandre afonso Profile picture
Dec 17, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Why are there no secessionist tensions in Switzerland while they are strong in Belgium? A thread in maps. ImageImage
Here is a map of dominant languages in Switzerland and Belgium, namely French, German, Italian and Rumansh in Switzerland and French, Flemish and German in Belgium. ImageImage
Now here is a map of average income by municipality in Belgium. As you can see, it doesn't track the language border absolutely perfectly, but there is nevertheless a fairly close correspondence between the two: Flanders is richer than Wallonia 3/ ImageImage
Now look at the equivalent income map for Switzerland: it doesn't track the language border at all. German-speaking Zurich is rich, but so is the French-speaking area around lake Geneva. ImageImage
When economic and cultural or religious cleavages are aligned, they tend to reinforce each other and create opportunities for secessionism.
In Belgium, the narrative that French-speakers are a drain for Flanders can have traction because the economic and linguistic cleavage are *aligned*. In Switzerland these two cleavages are *not* aligned.
In contrast, Switzerland has traditionally had *cross-cutting* cleavages: here languages combined with religion: you can be French speaking and catholic (Jura), French-speaking protestant (GE, VD), German-speaking catholic (Uri), German speaking protestant (Bern) ImageImage
Historically, this has meant that there was always something that *tied* members of a group to the other group. They had something in common.
Linguistic cleavages have remained very stable in Switzerland over time, but religion has declined a lot: here a map of religions in 2014 vs. 1900. ImageImage
Yellow means no religion.

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More from @alexandreafonso

Sep 20, 2022
I am writing a book on immigration policy and the welfare state for @OUPPolitics. Here's a thread on how my own existence is due to immigration policy and the welfare state.
Up to the 1960s, Switzerland had satisfied a great deal of its labour needs with immigrant workers from Italy, so that it had become quite dependent on Italian workers. In 1960, 20% of the whole workforce were migrant workers, and two thirds of these were Italian.
But permit conditions were drastic, with limits on family reunification, exclusion from welfare schemes. Given that wages and living conditions in Italy were improving rapidly, Italy used this dependency as leverage.
Read 17 tweets
May 26, 2022
A thread of things accused of being the cause of massacres of kids in schools: 1. Doors
2. Kids being in schools Image
3. US weapons going to Ukraine instead of American schools. Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 11, 2022
A couple of scatterplots on social class and yesterday's vote in France.
This is the relationship between the Le Pen % and the % of manual workers in French departments (R2: .45).
And this is the relationship between the Macron vote and the percentage of "cadres" (managers & intellectual professions).
Read 10 tweets
Apr 10, 2022
Based on the projection and earlier polls asking about vote transfers, this is how voter flows in the second round of the French presidential election could look like. If this holds Macron should still win with 54%.
Source projection: ipsos.com/fr-fr/presiden…
Source expected vote transfers: ipsos.com/sites/default/…
This ignores the small candidates for whom I don't have declared preferences in the second round. It also ignores the "endorsements" for the runoff being made just now. Mélenchon just called not to give a single vote to Le Pen, even if he didn't name Macron explicitly.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 28, 2022
How Putinophile are voters of radical-right parties in Western Europe? A thread alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/1-radical-ri…
We know that a number of radical right (RR) parties in Western Europe have developed substantial (ideological; financial) links with the Russian government over the years. bbc.com/news/world-eur…
But what about their voters? The Pew Research Center periodically asks respondents in 16 countries about their views on a number of global issues, and notably their trust in global leaders, including Putin. The last available wave is from 2021. pewresearch.org/global/2021/09…
Read 10 tweets
Mar 27, 2022
I guess it had to happen: I started a substack where I'm going to post some short pieces. You can subscribe here: alexandreafonso.substack.com
The first post is about radical right voters in Western Europe and Vladimir Putin. We know that Le Pen, Salvini and the AfD are very pro-Putin. Was it the case of their voters? alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/1-radical-ri…
I use data from the Pew Global Attitudes Survey collected in 9 countries in 2021 (n=9k). The short answer is that radical right voters were on average 3x more likely than other voters to have confidence in Vladimir Putin to "do the right thing in world affairs".
Read 5 tweets

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