🧵 While it is very troubling to see people much more knowledgeable than I sound these kinds of alarm bells, maybe it’s time we talked about what an actual civil war might look like.

ICYMI:
I once imagined it as a more “pitched” version of the terrorism of the 70’s with groups like the Weather Underground in polar opposition to the USG. However, given the variables that seems far too simplistic.
First is the error in assuming governments standing in opposition to rebellion. Subvert enough of law enforcement/military and governments’ ability to mount an effective response to an armed insurgency is greatly compromised.
Electoral defeat for democratic forces in ‘22/24 could see actual co-option or “deputization” of the most radicalized suburban “patriots” (typical of those who attacked on Jan 6). In a way, this could be least dangerous for white folks, and most dangerous for POC.
But something to keep in mind is that we have made serious mistakes in the past dealing with threats we mis-perceived as monolithic. We saw both communism and Islamic terrorism as monolithic, and suffered catastrophic failures as a result.
Similarly, the fascist right is not monolithic. Much of the rank-and-file are heavily armed, try to project hyper-masculinity, and are likely to be similarly hyper-focused on power.
In the face of any kind of weakness on the part of legal authorities, it would not be surprising to see armed conflict between RW militias, vying for control & influence on their home turf.
Given that their “home turf” is diverse suburban and ex-urban America, the consequences of armed conflict would not just pose a terrible direct threat to “non-combatants”.
Imagine your local Oath-Keepers and 3%-er chapters, both of whom have been fantasizing for years about being “top dog”, hitting the streets and getting into dick-measuring contests armed with assault rifles and whatever military ordinance they’ve managed to stash.
I can’t see them interrupting their live-fire cosplay to head to a local park so as to not jeopardize a neighborhood’s property values.
It could eviscerate America, with large numbers of internally displaced persons, collapse of the economy, disease, starvation & death.
My point is that this is really not something we want, no matter how much one might be inclined to think that there is nothing worth saving in a nation so clearly corrupted, and that it’s better to burn it all & start over.
A civil war will likely turn large numbers of Americans into refugees, either internally displaced or clamoring at our neighbor’s borders desperate to get out of the crossfire.
I pray that our national and state governments are war-gaming these and other scenarios to try to immediately put down any spark of armed insurrection. They failed miserably to do so in the run-up to Jan 6. They must not fail again.

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More from @SawyerSteve

21 Dec
The other day some ignoramus posted a comment that the thing truckers want most is de-regulation. Let me tell y’all a bit about #TruckerLife And no, de-regulation isn’t one of their concerns. 👇
My son drives a big rig from MI out to the PNW every two weeks. Heads out every other Friday. With luck he gets all deliveries made, gets his return load in a timely fashion, heads home, and has, on average, TWO DAYS to do laundry, shop, prepare meals and then head back out. 👇
He left MI on 12/10. So far, high winds in the plains that closed freeways, and snowstorms in the mountain passes have had him motionless for FOUR DAYS. Truckers DON’T GET PAID WHEN THEY’RE NOT MOVING! 👇
Read 11 tweets
21 Dec
I mentioned the press’s incentives. Those incentives include abject fear of RW criticism:

“The point here is that it is nothing new for editors at the New York Times and elsewhere to be uneasy about calling too much attention to reality — when that reality has a liberal bias.”
“that friction is particularly at issue today, at the Times and elsewhere, as political reporters and their editors struggle to accurately and sufficiently convey facts about the Republican assault on voting rights and democracy.”
“The fear of taking sides is very obviously holding them back.”
Read 6 tweets
20 Dec
This is all true. None of this will change. If you’re not preparing for local “trench warfare” in your local elections next year, your not part of the only solution we “little people” can put forward. 👇
“Republicans are poised for an investigative tsunami designed to paralyze the Biden administration and dominate news cycle after news cycle with hearings and outrageous, salacious accusations.” 👇
“Republicans learned during the Obama years that the media will be their best partner in this effort as long as they put on a show day-in-and-day-out.” 👇
Read 10 tweets
19 Dec
“Political hostility to public education in the Republican-dominated Idaho Legislature is causing some businesses to doubt the wisdom of moving to or expanding in a state that…”
“ranks at or near the bottom in what it spends on K-12 students and has one of the nation’s worst graduation rates.”
“For preschoolers, lawmakers earlier this year rejected a $6 million early childhood learning federal grant from the Trump administration. One Republican lawmaker said he opposed anything making it easier for mothers to work outside the home.”
Read 5 tweets
12 Dec
Talked with an elected official tonight, one with decades of experience at the city, county & state level. We discussed the movement to introduce chaos into the state- and local-level election machinery. 1/14
He indicated that thus far much of the activity has been in major-party-controlled appointed positions - state and county boards of canvassers. 2/14
But I believe this can be expected to intensify both in efforts to create intimidation vacancies and to get extremists elected to fill them. And not just in positions directly involved with election administration. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
10 Dec
“This pre-planned coup is what President Biden enables when he refuses to raise the filibuster in speeches and does not signal that this is a red line for his party.”
“It is what Republicans in right-wing media, in office, in think tanks and elsewhere enable when they make excuses for Trump, push the ‘big lie’ and refuse to repudiate violence.”
“It is what mainstream media outlets enable when they draw false equivalence between the parties, refuse to grill Republicans on their willingness to overthrow democracy and use squishy language to explain the effort to subvert democracy rather than stark, plain language.”
Read 4 tweets

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