🧵 While it is very troubling to see people much more knowledgeable than I sound these kinds of alarm bells, maybe it’s time we talked about what an actual civil war might look like.
ICYMI:
ICYMI:
I once imagined it as a more “pitched” version of the terrorism of the 70’s with groups like the Weather Underground in polar opposition to the USG. However, given the variables that seems far too simplistic.
First is the error in assuming governments standing in opposition to rebellion. Subvert enough of law enforcement/military and governments’ ability to mount an effective response to an armed insurgency is greatly compromised.
Electoral defeat for democratic forces in ‘22/24 could see actual co-option or “deputization” of the most radicalized suburban “patriots” (typical of those who attacked on Jan 6). In a way, this could be least dangerous for white folks, and most dangerous for POC.
But something to keep in mind is that we have made serious mistakes in the past dealing with threats we mis-perceived as monolithic. We saw both communism and Islamic terrorism as monolithic, and suffered catastrophic failures as a result.
Similarly, the fascist right is not monolithic. Much of the rank-and-file are heavily armed, try to project hyper-masculinity, and are likely to be similarly hyper-focused on power.
In the face of any kind of weakness on the part of legal authorities, it would not be surprising to see armed conflict between RW militias, vying for control & influence on their home turf.
Given that their “home turf” is diverse suburban and ex-urban America, the consequences of armed conflict would not just pose a terrible direct threat to “non-combatants”.
Imagine your local Oath-Keepers and 3%-er chapters, both of whom have been fantasizing for years about being “top dog”, hitting the streets and getting into dick-measuring contests armed with assault rifles and whatever military ordinance they’ve managed to stash.
I can’t see them interrupting their live-fire cosplay to head to a local park so as to not jeopardize a neighborhood’s property values.
It could eviscerate America, with large numbers of internally displaced persons, collapse of the economy, disease, starvation & death.
My point is that this is really not something we want, no matter how much one might be inclined to think that there is nothing worth saving in a nation so clearly corrupted, and that it’s better to burn it all & start over.
A civil war will likely turn large numbers of Americans into refugees, either internally displaced or clamoring at our neighbor’s borders desperate to get out of the crossfire.
I pray that our national and state governments are war-gaming these and other scenarios to try to immediately put down any spark of armed insurrection. They failed miserably to do so in the run-up to Jan 6. They must not fail again.
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