Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
* 202 cases/day (most in 10wks)
* 5.7%+ (highest in 9wks)
* 55 pediatric cases/day (most in 10wks)
* hospitalizations are rising, but slowly
* 22 deaths reported this wk (lowest in 3wks)

1/

After falling down to 8.4 avg daily cases per 100,000 people in early November, our case rate has climbed up to 19.2 per 100k, more than doubling in the past 6wks.

2/

While cases are rising, we're in a much better place than we were at last year at this time.

Today, we're avg'ing 202 cases/day.
A year ago, that was 869 cases/day, more than 4x higher.

3/

Cases dropped early in the Fall, down to 79 cases/day.

But then they have steadily risen following Fall Break, all the way back up to 202 cases/day.

+15% over 1wk
+52% over 2wks
+155% over 6wks

4/

And while pediatric cases are still far lower than they were back at the beginning of the school year, they're rising quickly.

We're up to 55 pediatric cases/day.
+47% over 1wk
+75% over 2wks
+153% over 6wks

5/

And after falling to 21% last week, pediatric cases are now up to 27% of total cases.

6/

I'm really concerned about kids over Winter Break.

We came back from Summer Break to see extremely high levels of pediatric cases.

Cases then fell after school opened...until they started rising after Fall Break and then again after Thanksgiving Break.

7/

My thinking is that school, with masks, is a relatively safe environment. And exposures are relatively low.

But outside of school, exposures are high - and mask usage low.

Combine that with a low pediatric vax rate, and it's a recipe for a spike in kids covid cases.

8/

The good news is that, even as cases rise, hospitalizations remain low.

Lower than at any point in the entire pandemic, except for a brief window this summer and the past couple months.

Covid patients are up, but only slightly so.

9/

We saw a huge spike in covid deaths the first week of Dec, but deaths have dropped since then.

Still, when you step back and look at the entire pandemic, deaths are higher than most any point, apart from Winter '20-'21 and Summer '21.

10/

2020 saw 891 covid deaths.

2021 is at 1,530 and counting. Nearly double.

Dec '21 is the 22nd month of the pandemic. It's already the 9th deadliest. It will certainly become the 7th - and possibly the 6th - deadliest month.

11/

We may be tired of covid precautions - I know I am - but people are still dying at high levels.

In fact, more people have died from covid in the past 3 months than have died from homicides the entire year.

But which do we hear about nightly on the news?

12/

On that topic, I was recently on The Markup by Mediaverse podcast to discuss covid data - and the difference between the way covid is reported compared to the way homicides are reported.

@markupbymv @Mediaverse

mediaversememphis.com/episodes/chapt…

13/

As you think about end-of-year giving, I'd ask that you consider supporting the work of @wendi_c_thomas and the entire @MLK50Memphis team.

newsmatch.org/organizations/…

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