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Will Stancil Profile picture
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18 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Yes, Dems need every single vote. That means progressive senators are going to have to vote for a bill they can support, but don't love. Why doesn't Manchin also have to compromise in the same way?
This only makes sense if we assume that THE ONLY BILL MANCHIN WILL VOTE FOR is one that MEETS HIS EXACT PREFERENCES, which is possible, but deeply improbable.
Come on guys, if Manchin says "I don't care, I'll walk away right now, final offer," the correct response is "This is the oldest bartering tactic in the known universe," not "Oh my god! Give him everything he wants! We're beaten!" medium.com/@whstancil/the… Image
Timid liberals seem terrified to call anyone's bluff. I know it's scary, but if you never call a bluff, the bluffer will ALWAYS win - and will learn to bluff more aggressively and often!

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More from @whstancil

Will Stancil Profile picture
20 Dec
I still really think it was a huge mistake for the White House and other Democrats to center Manchin so much. They were trying to flatter him with solicitous attention, but the more attention he's gotten, the more of a petulant diva he has become.
Imagine a scenario where the bill was what it was, negotiated among the caucus, but the line to Manchin from the start was "Either you support it and this party does something, or you don't and it doesn't." Deny him the opportunity to spend a year as shadow president.
Instead, what's happened is, the BBB negotiation was conducted in a way where Manchin raised his profile by being obstinate. The more temper tantrums he threw, the more everyone rushed to hear his every whim. Can't cater to that toxic dynamic.
Read 8 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
19 Dec
In case you want to diagnose what's wrong with the Democratic Party, consider this:
1. The entire agenda of the party appears miserably dead
2. There isn't even a hint of a suggestion among strong partisans that different people should be in charge
Dems make fun of the GOP's slavish devotion to Trump, but the GOP actually has a much better track record of rotating leaders after failure, while Democrats respond to failure by producing ever-more-elaborate excuses for why the same network of people should stay in charge
The problems Democrats are suffering are the problems you see when accountability fails in an institution: buck-passing after failure, leaders so long entrenched that changing them becomes unthinkable, a power structure built around personal loyalty rather than performance
Read 7 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
18 Dec
Trying to figure out why “Manchin is in charge and we just need to accept it” has become such an incredibly popular take among a certain type of cozy establishment person, and I think it’s because we’re all attracted to explanations of the world that make us comfortable
If you’re doing alright and you’re friends with a lot of important people it’s extremely comforting to think that the things that happen are the things that MUST happen, and no one could have changed anything, and no one is to blame except faceless masses
It’s terrifying to think the world could be better if we made better decisions, and people will go to great lengths to avoid that conclusion
Read 4 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
18 Dec
I’ve been a loyal and reliable Democrat for a long time. I’ve seen the party fail a lot. And one thing that is incredibly consistent: every time it fails, a bunch of guys will come busting through the wall Kool-Aid style to say “It’s because they didn’t win enough seats!”
It’s an appealing view I guess because it’s of course it’s usually true. Yes, having a bunch more Senate seats would help Dems do more things, obviously.

But also, we DIDN’T win a bunch more Senate seats. We have to think about passing laws in 50/50 Senate.
It’s also obviously true that, given a certain congressional makeup, all outcomes are not identical! There are good ways to negotiate and bad ways to do it.
Read 6 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
17 Dec
The White House is politically too cowardly to take aggressive measures against omicron, and has rationalized that decision by deciding that it's okay to let omicron rip through the population unchecked because vaccinated people are (probably) going to survive an infection.
Not only does this decision endanger the lives of millions of Americans simply because they have made one terrible decision, it is also impossible that it won't impose huge costs on the vaccinated as well, whose hospitals, cities, and workplaces will be ravaged all the same.
And of course, many people CAN'T be vaccinated, because they're too young. And many people, including those young children, depend on parents or family members who aren't vaccinated, completely outside their control.
Read 4 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
15 Dec
I know it was all the way back in November, but remember that Pelosi was APPLAUDED for breaking the progressive blockade of BIF using the Congressional Black Caucus as her sockpuppet.
Of course everyone at the time had all the information they needed to understand that this would place BBB on life support, but just kind of goaded each other into thinking it would work out. "What's the worst that could happen? We have Biden's assurance, do you not trust him??"
I think that's the maddening thing here. It's not a failure of prediction, but willpower: people who swore they'd NEVER untether BIF from BBB started feeling a little heat, and immediately decided they could take the path of least resistance and the problem would solve itself.
Read 4 tweets

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