Thread by @whstancil

I still really think it was a huge mistake for the White House and other Democrats to center Manchin so much. They were trying to flatter him with solicitous attention, but the more attention he's gotten, the more of a petulant diva he has become.

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1472950241011896320

Imagine a scenario where the bill was what it was, negotiated among the caucus, but the line to Manchin from the start was "Either you support it and this party does something, or you don't and it doesn't." Deny him the opportunity to spend a year as shadow president.

Instead, what's happened is, the BBB negotiation was conducted in a way where Manchin raised his profile by being obstinate. The more temper tantrums he threw, the more everyone rushed to hear his every whim. Can't cater to that toxic dynamic.

People say "It was inevitable for Manchin to become the focus of this, because he was the 50th vote." But all 50 senators are the 50th vote. Even Sinema hasn't gotten nearly as much attention, despite being, for a long time, regarded as a bigger problem as Manchin.

What's the difference? A lot of it is the self-perpetuating, self-reinforcing conventional wisdom that Manchin is THE critical holdout. That belief, in turn, helped Manchin become the focus of the whole process, rather than just another marginal senator with doubts.

Again, compare Sinema. Does anyone doubt she has a similar capacity to be a diva as Manchin? But instead of rushing to plead with her, Dems were significantly more dismissive. "She'll just have to get with the program" was the attitude. She got concessions, but not to be queen.

I know this kind of talk is considered anti-empirical in an age where everything is reduced to polls and data, but negotiations are in large part about PSYCHOLOGY, and you don't want your counterparty to feel powerful, much less like they become more powerful by flexing on you.

The last thing I'd add is that while I think it's important to think about this, it's not something that can be reversed overnight, at, at this point, at all. The all-consuming focus on Manchin is something that was built up over months and months. You can't undo it with a snap.