Very good analysis here on implications of Frost's departure. But what I can't imagine is how and with whom BJ replaces him whilst maintaining party unity: I call it "The Goldilocks Problem "🧵
https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1472355060755611656
2/ Another hardliner, or even more extreme successor to Frost will only exacerbate relations with EU [and US, if NIP threats continue], worsen business problems, and increase disillusion of even more voters about Brexit, whose results fall far short of what was promised..
3/ But a more moderate pragmatic replacement will alienate ERG rebels and stir up allegations of BJ "selling out". Too soft.
4/ BJ has always straddled an uneasy divide in the party between moderates vs ultras. He got away with it as an election winner. N Shropshire result puts that in doubt.
5/Whoever PM now picks to replace Frost risks reigniting those papered-over party divides, with the tension over covid handling throwing more fuel on the fire. There is no obvious "just right" solution to this Goldilocks conundrum.
6/ But the real problem remains as it always has been..the PM's tendency to blow with the political wind and follow whatever policy seems most politically expedient at the time, rather than be guided by any core vision or principles himself.
7/Until we have a PM prepared to engage seriously, master details of UK-EU, and take some political heat to face down the ultras, problems will persist, no matter who replaces Frost. BJ can't just subcontract Brexit to a deputy while flouncing around making jokes anymore.
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