Germany’s new expert council weighs in on #omicron:
"Due to the simultaneous, extreme number of patients, a considerable overload of the hospitals is to be expected - even in the unlikely case of significantly weakened disease severity compared to the Delta variant"
They call for:
- further measures to reduce contacts
- enforcing current measures
- intensifying vaccination and booster campaigns
"all models show that booster vaccinations alone do not adequately contain the omicron wave, but that additional contact restrictions are necessary"
Beyond political decisions, "the population must be called upon to actively control infections. This includes avoiding larger gatherings, the consistent, preferred wearing of FFP2 masks, especially indoors, as well as the increased use of rapid tests at gatherings…"
"Particularly vulnerable groups require increased protective measures through high-frequency testing and FFP2 masks.
In all decisions, interests of particularly stressed and vulnerable groups, such as children, young people or those in need of care, must be given top priority."
The experts “expect enormous challenges in the coming weeks and months, which will require joint and timely action from all.
In addition to consistent action, clear explanations are crucial."
"The omicron wave hits a population that has been exhausted by a nearly two-year pandemic and its control, and in which massive tensions are evident on a daily basis.”
Communication "with clear explanations of the new risk situation and the resulting measures is essential."
@ViolaPriesemann@CorneliaBetsch@alena_buyx@Sander_Lab@c_drosten (My two cents:
Seems in line with the conclusions that countries sightly ahead of us in the omicron wave are reaching.
There is a lot of uncertainty, but by the time we’re certain it will be too late.
Good to see communication feature prominently in the opinion. Huge challenge!)
@ViolaPriesemann@CorneliaBetsch@alena_buyx@Sander_Lab@c_drosten (Also worth remembering that Germany is in a worse position than countries like Norway, Denmark or UK in terms of immunity given comparatively low vaccination rate and low levels of immunity from infections.
Boostering quite fast though.)
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You must all be tired of this, but really:
There is still a lot of uncertainty about omicron’s characteristics, especially its severity.
Yes, there are more and more pieces of the puzzle, but they don’t fit together all that well and there are a LOT of questions and hypotheses.
You can look at the current data and come up with a lot of theories - and the less you know the easier it is for that theory to fit what you know.
But some of the smartest people I know have told me they are simply not sure what to think yet.
Just one example:
I talked to @trvrb briefly yesterday (for a story to come later) and asked about data from South Africa on severity vs. early reports in Europe. He said: “I don’t know how to square these two things and that is probably giving me the most pause at the moment.”
Going by what we know so far, places like Germany or the US are in for a world of trouble in the coming weeks.
So I want to make a few general points here once that go beyond the science (will do the rest later):
Firstly, why are we in trouble?
Forget everything else for a moment and just look at the growth rate of #omicron in places like Denmark and Norway. Look at London. This virus is moving fast. It spreads fast. And it will find those most vulnerable fast.
Unfortunately, places like Germany and the US still have a lot of vulnerable people who are unvaccinated.
This variant will find those people fast and if it is anything like previous variants it will make a significant portion of these people very, very sick.
@Eurosurveillanc One key finding: More than one in five cases cannot be linked to previous cases.
"This indicates that within 1.5 weeks from identifying the first case of #Omicron, there is already widespread community transmission in Denmark, which challenges further epidemic control."
117 people attended the party
99 had had two shots of mRNA vaccine (no-one boostered)
8 had recovered (unclear to me if they were vaccinated as well)
Everyone reported a negative rapid test before
81/110 (interviewed) people got Omicron, so the attack rate was a whopping 74%
As of December 13 "we detected nearly 70 other guests that were likely infected at the venue, and the Omicron variant
was detected in 53 of these through PCR variant
screening or sequencing"
“The doubling rate of Omicron in some regions is now down to less than two days and I'm afraid we're also seeing the inevitable increase in hospitalizations, up by 10% nationally week on week and up by almost a third in London”, Boris Johnson just said in his briefing.
UK now boostering anyone over 18 whose second jab is more than 3 months ago.
"From tomorrow, we're speeding things up even further by removing the 15 minute post-vaccination waiting time. And while we're at it from Monday, 12 to 15 year olds can book in for a second jab."
Johnson really leaning into boostering:
“We're jabbing in hospitals, we're jabbing in surgeries, we're jabbing in pharmacies and in pop-up centers, we're jabbing in shopping centers and on high streets, in football stadiums... Wherever you are, we'll be there with a jab for you."
Here is the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board adding its voice:
"If governments and the public continue to focus on the severity of the variant, which is yet to be determined, there is a real risk that we miss the opportunity to prevent and slow down the spread of Omicron"
"Optimistic predictions are based on limited evidence, bringing false comfort and lulling some countries into a state of inaction. We cannot make the same mistakes again.” gpmb.org/news/news/item…
“Curbing transmission of Omicron in the next few weeks is essential. Acting fast and erring on the side of caution is the right way forward. If we don’t act now, it will be too late.”