1/ NL, AUT, SWE, NO, CH age adjusted mortality update.
I have added data up to week 47 now (28th November).
Left column: crude mortality (normalized to total population).
Right column: ASMR using NL2011 std. population.
AUT and NL go up, not NO, CH, SWE.
2/ The mortality increase in NL and AUT is not related to vaxx. The vaxx is at the same time not visible as lifesaving in all cause as C19 is not the driving parameter, neither is the vaxx.
We likely see the price to pay for permanent lockdowns, social isolation, fear, etc.
3/ Let's dig deeper than AMSR: now we plot mortality by age bin population. This is more precise in order to understand what is going on.
No surprise, the old are dying. Do people not know this? And are we now "bin counting" 90+ people to make lockdown panic? Stop this please.
4/ Let's go down by age now.
65-79 years.
Norway is a good place to be. Surprised? Equally vaxxed as the others. Why?
NO👉 The richest country in Europe if we exclude the "micky mouse" fiscal paradise countries like Luxemburg of course.
5/ Let's go down to 50-64 years. Nothing in NL and NO, some little excess in SWE, AUT, CH.
6/ So let's dig deeper hereon 50 years spike. I bet those are men.
7/ Coffee break with Herbert Grönemeyer now. @freiheit_ruft
8/ I hope point 5 makes clear why aggregated mortality and excess analysis is a misleading way of understanding causality of mortality and why we dig down on population normalized raw data by multivariate parameters like age, sex...
13/ Found a little mistake while appending (bad idea) in the new W44-47 data. The deaths changed in some cases, so I double counted some weeks (e.g. 43) where the duplicate removal consequently did not work (as deaths also changed). That gave the male spikes (not real).
14/ So here again. And gone is the spike. So the men are lucky at the end. It was just a duplicate line. Still, I hope you enjoyed Grönemeyer 😇
15/ The other age groups
15/ Also again here the first graphs without those (data duplicates) spikes.
Lesson learned: for 2021 data, start with a fresh download as the late weeks are still changing due to reporting lag.
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They're trolling / insulting. The request was clear: compare ERA5 2km / @meteoblue with @AEMET_CValencia sensor at an hourly level. If they match at night, cloudy days, winter, but the sensor shows higher T in summer clear skies / no wind / day 👉 sensor is heat-biased. So? Go.
Thanks, @meteoblue. Normal conversation can be so easy. If the Spanish gentlemen would now provide access to their hourly station dataset, we can overlay it with the fine-grid ERA5 2km hourly product and see what's going on. Does that sound like a way forward @AEMET_CValencia ?
@meteoblue @AEMET_CValencia He clearly doesn’t understand their response nor my request. At this stage, I just want him to provide THE HOURLY DATA. What the answer actually means is that the 30 km cell is more representative of the region’s climate—yes, it’s better than the station. Well done @ChGefaell 👍.
1/ Such places have no credibility for accurate bias free measurements. It's the opposite of a stable environment and per default a diesel powered urban expedition place. We see how the melting starts around the airport and the town.
2/ Here we see another example (Alaska). Russian high-lat regions are among the worst. It's a deception to take measurements from such places and claim that you've done 'science' while actually just picking up dirt. Why not Everest dirt basecamp next?
3/ It escalated quickly. Similar to @BMcNoldy from Miami, master's student @Daaanvdb also used airport data instead of professional equipment, like what's available at @UNISvalbard.
Let's do better and use proper data from a better looking station.
1/ As mentioned, Europe is too urbanized for climate measurements. Shown below is just the UHI effect. As mentioned, ANY type of urban landscape altering increases surface temperatures as well. The Netherlands and Benelux regions are all fully biased and unfit for climate science
2/ As mentioned previously, North Sweden is the most credible place for climate measurements due to its development, peace, and ability to capture high-quality data. Besides Sweden, only the US provides reliable historic data. All other regions are not credible and biased today.
3/ Source: YCEO Surface Urban Heat Islands: Spatially-Averaged Daytime and Nighttime Intensity for Annual, Summer, and Winter.
It's from 2003. Now it's even more urbanized = worse.
2/ Florida: the gulf area showing up red at the anomaly chart. The buoy shows nominal at average values. 25C versus +26-27C in the SST model. That's a +1C heat bias.
3/ Next - Hawaii. Buoys are below average. SST product is showing heat anomalies there.
14th May: buoy 24.5C vs. 25.5C SST.
+1C heat bias
Interesting. It's apparently too warm, as long as you don't stick a real thermometer into the water to measure and realize: it's cold.
1/ Let's revisit this result from AIRS satellite measurements over 17 years, showing a +0.36W increase in forcing alongside a 40 ppm rise in CO2 concentration.
Does this align with the "observed" (questionable) increase in global temperature anomaly (+0.6C)?
2/The IPCC reports a calculated CO2 forcing of +0.5W, as detailed on the NOAA AGGI page, which you can find here:
The SW calculation overestimates by 40% compared to the +0.36W derived by the AIRS satellite, marking the first significant discrepancy. gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html
3/ Now we return to Happer's paper, showing that doubling CO2 from 400 --> 800 ppm results in +3W of forcing.
This is consistent with +3.5W reported by the NOAA AGGI (+3.5W).