Orwell2024 🪙 Profile picture
Dec 20, 2021 16 tweets 8 min read Read on X
1/ NL, AUT, SWE, NO, CH age adjusted mortality update.

I have added data up to week 47 now (28th November).

Left column: crude mortality (normalized to total population).
Right column: ASMR using NL2011 std. population.

AUT and NL go up, not NO, CH, SWE.
2/ The mortality increase in NL and AUT is not related to vaxx. The vaxx is at the same time not visible as lifesaving in all cause as C19 is not the driving parameter, neither is the vaxx.
We likely see the price to pay for permanent lockdowns, social isolation, fear, etc.
3/ Let's dig deeper than AMSR: now we plot mortality by age bin population. This is more precise in order to understand what is going on.

No surprise, the old are dying. Do people not know this? And are we now "bin counting" 90+ people to make lockdown panic? Stop this please.
4/ Let's go down by age now.

65-79 years.

Norway is a good place to be. Surprised? Equally vaxxed as the others. Why?

NO👉 The richest country in Europe if we exclude the "micky mouse" fiscal paradise countries like Luxemburg of course.
5/ Let's go down to 50-64 years. Nothing in NL and NO, some little excess in SWE, AUT, CH.
6/ So let's dig deeper hereon 50 years spike. I bet those are men.

Bingo. Surprise? Why men? Why us?

Listen to this along with the graphs
DE:
EN:

We, @OS51388957, @Bobby_Network, @Hache_Berlin will sing it in Vienna.😀
7/ Coffee break with Herbert Grönemeyer now.
@freiheit_ruft
8/ I hope point 5 makes clear why aggregated mortality and excess analysis is a misleading way of understanding causality of mortality and why we dig down on population normalized raw data by multivariate parameters like age, sex...
9/ Let's go furter down by age and sex to 35-49. Notice the spike in the male bin for NL and SWE. Life is hard for men yes.
10/ Further down at 20-34. Here the countries all look the same I would say.
11/ And finally the children.
12/ Summary: It looks like if the 2 year lockdown and panic narrative do and did not save lives. In contrary.

Is that a surprise? How and why did we think that it would help?

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

nature.com/articles/s4159…

cambridge.org/core/journals/…
13/ Found a little mistake while appending (bad idea) in the new W44-47 data. The deaths changed in some cases, so I double counted some weeks (e.g. 43) where the duplicate removal consequently did not work (as deaths also changed). That gave the male spikes (not real).
14/ So here again. And gone is the spike. So the men are lucky at the end. It was just a duplicate line. Still, I hope you enjoyed Grönemeyer 😇
15/ The other age groups
15/ Also again here the first graphs without those (data duplicates) spikes.

Lesson learned: for 2021 data, start with a fresh download as the late weeks are still changing due to reporting lag.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Orwell2024 🪙

Orwell2024 🪙 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @orwell2022

Jan 30
Spectacular model failure: the simulation is detached from reality.

MEASURED (MODIS): cooling.
ERA5 model: warming.

Same grid cell, same year but OPPOSITE trend?

If a “model” can’t even get the sign right it’s a full fledged GIGO failure. Worse than worthless. Image
Flagged this two years ago, and it’s still absurd.

Measured surface temperature (LST) is declining since 2000.

ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/ist_cli…

ERA5 shows 2 m air warming. Wrong trend, same place, same period.

Worse: ERA5 “surface” proxy warms too. Misses LST too.!! x.com/orwell2022/sta…Image
Here’s the part that should make you stare:

ERA5 “2 m air” is derived from surface T.

So when LST is cooling ERA5 should follow the observed surface.

It doesn’t. The ERA5 surface proxy warms too.

Not a model of reality but a calculation of what they’d like reality to be. Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 26
1/ People use “reanalysis” as if it is thermometer data. It is NOT.
Reanalysis is a computer weather model.

So we test it: ERA5 vs USCRN on grid level. Result: cooler past, warmer present pivot in ERA5 vs stations. Model ❌

~1.5 °C 🔴 model error vs ground truth (measured 🔵) Image
2/ Maybe it works for Blackville — another of the few pristine hUSCRN sites.
Same model failure.

When a SW model disagrees with ground-truth HW thermometers at the grid level, nature isn’t wrong.
The model is. Image
3/ Another one.

HOLLY_SPRINGS__4_N

That’s a spectacular failure / bias of the model. Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 13, 2025
1/ This brigheting since 1980 is known in prof. circles.

Here’s the data from Germany (Potsdam).

+15 W/m² 🌞since the 1980s. ✅

Yet the public narrative claims climate change/CO₂ (~+1.4 W/m² over the same period). ❌

The gap between evidence and narraitive is 10x....off. Image
2/ The analysis is already done. DWD and peer-reviewed literature.
It matches what we saw from JMA and KNMI raw data:
a +10–20 W/m² increase in surface solar radiation.

So the question:
How did they get away with knowing this and selling the story of ~1.4 W from CO₂ instead? Image
3/ What does the literature say?

“...dimming/brightening not only occurred when clouds are considered, but also under cloud-free conditions when cloud effects are absent.”

A remarkably way to say:
It’s not clouds. Not CO₂. Not climate. Pollution.

They’ve known for decades Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 6, 2025
A +14 W/m² total solar increase over 50 years is realistic. Japan alone shows +20 W/m². That’s 10× larger than the minuscule additional CO₂ forcing (~1W). And nearly 50× greater than the impact of sunspot cycles (±0.5 W).

So why is the climate scam still lying? Image
Image
Japan has one of the best measurement data. The analysis is clear. The brightening amount to almost 20 W. That is a lot. But the main and dominant effect is still urbanization, which makes up to 6°. Image
Link 1: the brightening. It explains why the climate scam likes to start in the maximum smog dimming period of 1970. It is a shameless bad faith deception. The effect is ball part of +1°C. In dry areas up to 3°C.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 6, 2025
UAH is a model inference, not a measurement. It can’t be tested, yet many treat it like real raw. Calling that a ‘measurement’ is wrong. Neither Lindzen nor us take it seriously. It starts in a cold period, with no long-term data — adjusted, multi mission stitched SW composite.🚮
UAH is not measurement — it’s model-driven inference. Satellites detect radiance, not temperature. The ‘trend’ is built through weighting functions, drift corrections, and stitched instruments. It’s untestable, synthetic, and not suitable for long-term climate baselines. Image
Image
Image
It’s astonishing how confidently some treat satellite-based inferences as god in heaven like truth. These are SW model outputs, not reliable measurements. Treating them as accurate fact is scientifically indefensible. If you do so, expect your credibility to be challenged. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 1, 2025
London is glowing today. Wide urban heat plume. Not “climate change.” Just real estate and concrete. The effect is visible. Quantifiable. Known. This should be a good study day to quantify UHI in more detail once the IR satellite pictures come in. Image
Image
2/ We start low tech. Actually nothing more is needed. There is over 6°C urban heat. It's embarrassing to pretend today's 33°C are comparable to 100 years ago. Subtract 6–8°C for UHI and you get... 25–27°C. Welcome back to reality. Image
3/ Nighttime, Tmin. Watch how they flatten the colors. You’re not supposed to notice the 7°C UHI. We unflatten the colors. Look again: you see it now? Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(