We have new findings on Omicron in SA, led by @DrWanYang. See columbia.edu/~jls106/yang_s…. Using a model-inference approach, we estimate for Gauteng that Omicron is 100.3% (95% CI: 74.8 - 140.4%) more transmissible than the ancestral SARS-CoV-2... 1/7
...and 36.5% (95% CI: 20.9 - 60.1%) more transmissible than Delta; in addition, it erodes 63.7% (95% CI: 52.9 - 73.9%) of the population immunity, accumulated from prior infections and vaccination, in Gauteng. 2/7
In this estimate we remove the effects of location-specific conditions, i.e. intervention measures and seasonality, s.t. results are variant-specific and applicable to places outside South Africa. Notably, we attempt to disentangle transmissibility and immune erosion. 3/7
We also estimate transmissibility, immune erosion, the infection rate, case ascertainment rate, and infection seasonality over the whole pandemic in S. Africa, including waves of ancestral, Beta and Delta variants.... 4/7
...and estimate epidemiological characteristics for the remaining 8 provinces in South Africa, which corroborate the estimates for Gauteng. 5/7
Changing infection-detection rates, mobility and summertime conditions in SA may be increasingly suppressing Omicron transmission and are possibly contributing to the apparent quick turnaround of the Omicron wave in Gauteng. 6/7
This finding suggests that similar turnarounds may not occur everywhere, particularly in places currently experiencing winter and holiday seasons, which facilitate transmission. 7/7
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