Infectious disease modeler and epidemiologist, climate scientist, public health professor and dabbler in a few other things
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Dec 31, 2021 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Endemicity. I think we may have to re-evaluate our expectations of endemicity for SARS-CoV-2. In temperate parts of the world, we think of seasonality as the phase-locking of incidence/transmission at one time of year, often the winter... 1/6
This is patterned from our experience with influenza. The 4 well-documented flu pandemics emerged, produced a succession of waves over the first 2 years, then settled into a pattern of seasonal, one-outbreak-per-year endemicity. At population scales,... 2/6
Dec 20, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
We have new findings on Omicron in SA, led by @DrWanYang. See columbia.edu/~jls106/yang_s…. Using a model-inference approach, we estimate for Gauteng that Omicron is 100.3% (95% CI: 74.8 - 140.4%) more transmissible than the ancestral SARS-CoV-2... 1/7
...and 36.5% (95% CI: 20.9 - 60.1%) more transmissible than Delta; in addition, it erodes 63.7% (95% CI: 52.9 - 73.9%) of the population immunity, accumulated from prior infections and vaccination, in Gauteng. 2/7
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