1/ Right. After a load of calls some clarity is emerging about what happened at Cabinet. In short: A lot of cab ministers made clear their concern about moving to tougher new restrictions now. Lots centred on the need for more data. With @christopherhope. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
2/ Cabinet gathering described by those in the room as discursive. A “wide range of viewpoints” shared. Unlike a lot of the cab meetings it does appear to have been a more general discussion about Omicron approach rather than a ‘here’s the plan, up or down’ meeting.
3/ Those arguing for caution on tougher restrictions can be split largely into two camps - cabinet ministers with economic briefs and those on the libertarian wing of the party / who are championing protection of freedoms.
4/ Rishi Sunak is arguing broadly that more data is needed on Omicron before taking action that could dent economy by billions of pounds. Grant Shapps also arguing for more data before action. Stephen Barclay + Kwasi Kwarteng understood to be in the ‘urging caution’ camp.
5/ As for the second camp, Jacob Rees-Mogg + Liz Truss broadly fall into that. Mogg (partly in charge of getting Commons votes through) said to be alive to chance of backbench revolt. Truss was “uncomfortable” with Plan B, needs persuading to go further again.
6/ Those two camps above, as I understand it, are not arguing ‘never any further’ on restrictions. It’s much more nuanced. Lots said they want more data on Omicron (link through to hospitalisations, deaths, vaccines). Some positions could change w/ data in coming week, so fluid.
6/ There were also cabinet ministers with a ‘tougher Covid restrictions soon’ stance. Three names kept coming up in our conversations on this front - Michael Gove, Sajid Javid and Nadine Dorries. To unpack that…
7/ Gove used to be in a key Covid brief (CDL), heads up devolved admin chats (they’ve gone further) and was a big advocate for Covid passports. Javid obvs has NHS brief, so naturally warning about impact coming. Dorries is interesting as new to cabinet, position less well known.
8/ Interestingly a fourth cab minister said to be calling for tougher restrictions - Chief Sec to Treasury Simon Clarke (per @christopherhope). Gov scientists also keen for early major restrictions rise, in line with position outlined in recent SAGE minutes.
9/ In the end, weight of opinion in the room sounds like it ended up with the ‘let’s wait a bit for more Omicron data before pulling the big Covid restrictions levers’ position - which is what PM then articulated this afternoon after Cabinet ended.
10/ So where are we? Multiple Gov sources inc in Cabinet now think unlikely we’ll see tough new restrictions coming into effect BEFORE Christmas. Why? Parli takes 48hrs to be recalled, we’re 5 days from Christmas, Cabinet just agreed to wait, etc etc. (Though no guarantees)
11/ So is that it? Well, not really. As Chris reports, another Cab meeting maybe later this week. Possible Parli is recalled next week. As said above, some Cab ministers are open-minded, could back tougher rules if data changes. So… still lots of internal debates to come. END
The minutes from Thursday’s SAGE meeting have just dropped and they include this startling line:
“In England it is almost certain that there are now hundreds of thousands of new Omicron infections per day.”
Also this from Sage:
“Without intervention beyond those measures already in place (‘Plan B’), modelling indicates a peak of at least 3,000 hospital admissions per day in England.”
Take these two together - hundreds of thousands of new infections a day and hospitalisations hitting 3k a day even with Plan B - and it’s hard not to see the Government going for tighter restrictions soon.
Right. Specifics re Plan B have been bouncing round all day and still being finalised but here are some bits about where we are....
1/ A carve out on face masks is expected for hospitality sector, per two Gov sources. That's what went into system this morning. If so then no masks forced in pubs and restaurants.
2/ Has been debate all day about face masks coming back in classrooms but sounds like it WON'T happen. Again being finalised currently but one to watch
Breaking: Covid-O meeting due today. Work from home and vaccine passports to be discussed. Go-ahead could be announced as early as today. Massive move if so.
Key cabinet ministers on Covid policy in Stephen Barclay understood to have attended the usual No10 morning meeting on Covid. (Sounds like that rather than a formal Quad meeting this AM).
A press conference today is being discussed among officials, with some predicting one will happen. PM was expected to make one this week at some point on Covid generally (initially due to be a focus on boosters)
"I have today, after consultation with my family, and with much sadness decided to resign as the MP for North Shropshire. The last two years have been an indescribable nightmare for my family and me. My integrity, which I hold very dear... 1/8
"... has been repeatedly and publicly questioned. I maintain that I am totally innocent of what I have been accused of and I acted at all times in the interests of public health and safety. I, my family and those closest to me know the same... 2/8
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NEW: @Telegraph has seen a copy of the Government’s private impact assessment for vaccine passports.
The £££ hit on turnover… the problems outside stadiums… the fears it will drive people to Covid-risky pubs… the ??? over delivery…Quick thread👇 telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
The doc is 13 pages long and was written by DCMS. Was produced early September and is marked “official sensitive”.
It analysed the economic and social impacts of mandatory vaccine-only certification (ie vaccine passports).
The Government’s vaccine passport impact assessment gave a “mid” estimate for how much turnover would drop for venues impacted.
1 month = £345m drop in turnover (2.2% below 2019 levels)