NEW: @Telegraph has seen a copy of the Government’s private impact assessment for vaccine passports.

The £££ hit on turnover… the problems outside stadiums… the fears it will drive people to Covid-risky pubs… the ??? over delivery…Quick thread👇 telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
The doc is 13 pages long and was written by DCMS. Was produced early September and is marked “official sensitive”.

It analysed the economic and social impacts of mandatory vaccine-only certification (ie vaccine passports).
The Government’s vaccine passport impact assessment gave a “mid” estimate for how much turnover would drop for venues impacted.

1 month = £345m drop in turnover (2.2% below 2019 levels)

3 months = £1034m drop (6.6% below 2019)

6 months = £2067m drop (13.2% below 2019)
Reminder of where we are. Gov is considering bringing in Covid certification - proof of two jabs - for big venues this winter if cases surge.

The venues that would be impacted:
- Indoor settings 500+ people
- Outdoor settings 4,000+
- Any venue 10,000+
- Nightclubs
One challenge would be hiring people to do the proof of jab checks… the assessment says that at least 5,700 extra stewards would be needed just to do the checks at venues with 10,000 or more people.
This would come with considerable cost. The doc estimates a Premier League club would need 110 extra stewards to do vaccine passport checks if they were mandated.

Doc suggests that would cost £15k per match or £285k per season (more than a quarter of a mil).
Some other examples of cost given

World Snooker Championship (which trialled vaccine passports) saw triple the usual steward levels used. 10-15% increased costs.

Likewise Download festival. Extra man was power needed for covid security. An extra 20% to costs.
There were also concerns about the practicality of getting everyone who entered a large venue to show proof of two Covid jabs raised in the impact assessment…
1/ Could you even do 100% checks? Maybe not

“Some venues (eg Premier League clubs) have stated that they are constrained by the location of their stadiums, and coupled with flow rates, the risk of bottlenecks is too great to make 100% certification checks logistically possible.”
2/ Concerning knock-on impacts?

The doc notes the Prem has been doing Covid status “spot checks” and says it adds queue pressure.

“If this was increased to mandate every attendee being checked, this would have significant impacts on the operational viability of the matches.”
3/ Could it be counterproductive?

Doc says at one point:
“There is potential displacement between live events venues and hospitality venues. A core concern in the sector is that certification could displace activity and business away from music venues to, say, pubs…
…with music and late alcohol licenses, etc which could be counterintuitive and potentially counter-productive.”

Also: “Similarly, if certification displaces some fans from structured and well ventilated
sports stadia this could lead to them attending unstructured and…
…poorly ventilated pubs instead, where they will have access to more alcohol than if there were in the stadia. Evidence from the Euros showed spikes in cases associated with pubs even when England were playing abroad.”

So fears people could go to Covid-risky pubs instead.
There were some fascinating other nuggets in the doc. Covid status took 90-120 seconds to check per person in Prem matches. Around 6.3 million checks would have been needed in October if policy had been adopted.
Worth saying it wasn’t only criticism in the document. Lots of polls / surveys cited showing vaccine passports could help people return to large venues.

One found a third of potential event attendees “would not visit unless all attendees had vaccine proof”.
A line in doc read: “Although the impact would not be positive for all consumer segments, overall the evidence indicates that vaccine proof would be a trigger for tempting many from the more cautious segments to return to indoor attractions…”
Finally, here’s the Government response tonight. Nobody we spoke to all day questioned the authenticity of the document. (END)

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More from @benrileysmith

7 Oct
Lots of chatter about an early election on the fringes of Tory conference.

Here are four arguments for why it won’t happen, being posited by Boris’s inner circle…
1/ A big factor in how the Tories do at the next election is whether the Red Wall voters see (or feel) tangible proof that ‘levelling up’ is happening.

The more time you have, the more likely that can be seen. New roads, hospitals, cops, nurses, railways etc that were promised.
2/ Things are going to get rocky.

NHS waiting lists will rise, even with the new money. Courts backlog will drag on. Fuel bills soaring. Inflation creeping up, eating into wages. Plus an end to unusual pandemic politics.

2022 will be tough. 2024 vote = more time for recovery.
Read 5 tweets
2 Sep
Telegraph tomorrow publishes a load of intel on PM’s social care reforms.

Expected next week... breaks manifesto pledge by raising tax on c.25m... in order to cap lifetime care costs (at higher than expected)... No10-No11 at loggerheads on exact tax rise... Big political gamble.
To unpack some of our reporting tomorrow, a few tweets...
TIMINGS: Widely expected to drop next week. One source said pencilled in for Tuesday cabinet briefing then announcement. Makes sense to go early as rest of the spending review revolves around fixing this package.
Read 12 tweets
31 Aug
Exclusive in tomorrow’s @Telegraph.

Britain has started secret face-to-face talks with the Taliban.

Simon Glass, chair of Joint Intel Committee, met Taliban in Doha. Intel officials also met them in Kabul.

(Reporting with @rmendick, @benfarmerDT, @DomNicholls)
** Sorry this should read Gass, not Glass. Clumsy thumbs.
Gass is one of the most senior intelligence figures in the UK government. Joint Intel Committee gives ministers intel assessments.

Recently Gass was appointed the PM’s special representative for Afghan transition. We understand he met Taliban figures in recent days in Doha.
Read 8 tweets
21 Aug
Why do we keep seeing planes flying off not full from Kabul? The explanation emerged yesterday... /1
US, UK, Nato ally planes are flying in and out on an endless rotation. Touch down, get people on, take off, fly them to regional hubs, repeat. Given the constant flow planes can’t sit for hours and hours on the tarmac before taking back off... 2/
...which is a long way of saying the problem in the operation isn’t supply of planes. It is the supply of people who have been issued documents and have got through to the airport ready to be flown. 3/
Read 16 tweets
18 Aug
Theresa May with a despairing intervention:

“Was our intelligence really so poor? Was our understanding of the Afghan government so weak? … Or did we just think we had to follow the United States and on a wing and a prayer it would be alright?"
Theresa May continuing her scathing intervention.

Says it's "incomprehensible and worrying" UK and allies couldn't find an alternative solution as US pulled out

"Surely one outcome of this must be a reassessment of how Nato operates". Warns Russia and China will be emboldened.
Theresa May's withering close. "We boast about Global Britain. But where is Global Britain on the streets of Kabul?" UK foreign policy will be judged by "deeds" not "words".
Read 4 tweets
16 Aug
This is what has been happening on the ground at Kabul airport, per a UK defence source. Helps explain the footage we’re seeing.

The airport perimeter was meant to be manned by Afghan security forces. But that disintegrated on Sunday as Afghans surged in trying to flee... 1/
Instead it was left to US soldiers to man a chain fence that is right by the Kabul airfield. That effectively became the new perimeter to be secured. The problem was it was very easy to penetrate... 2/
Afghans broke through the barrier on Sunday night and made it in their hundreds onto the airfield. Then again on Monday morning. And again on Monday afternoon. (Per this UK military source). 3/
Read 9 tweets

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