Thread by @AGHamilton29

This isn't a well organized thread (more of a rant) so feel free to mute, but let's talk about some things we know about Covid-19 and how that should inform our public policy decisions because it feels like the world has gone insane and there is a huge disconnect right now.

The original strain of Covid-19 was more transmittable than your average virus and very deadly to certain parts of the population (very skewed by age). Children were and remain relatively low-risk. Vaccines did a good job protecting against spread & severe illness w that strain.

Covid-19 was shown to be very seasonal and hits in waves. Delta variant originated in India in late 2020. It was far more transmissible than the original variant w ~same severity. A lot more people got Covid and waves lasted longer, but we had vaccines.

Vaccines were less effective at preventing transmission, but still very effective against severe illness. Booster enhanced protection from transmission. You could indisputably see the difference in hospitalization and deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated.

Every state, red and blue, that released data showed ~6-8X variation in hospitalizations and even more apparent difference in deaths. Vaccinated also were sick for less time. Same data exists for almost every country.

Now Omicron appears more transmittable than Delta, but preliminary evidence also suggests it's less virulent than previous strains & waves do not last as long. Vaccines, even w boosters, do not seem effective at preventing transmission, but still protect against severe illness.

So when we started, we didn’t have knowledge on how 2 protect people when they got sick or tools to prevent it. That’s what justified extreme measures and even some that w questionable effectiveness and high costs. But that justification was based on the idea they were temporary.

Then we got those tools. We developed vaccines that essentially make Covid-19 comparable to the flu (a false claim made early on that becomes real w vaccines & possibly Omicron), several key treatments (monoclonal antibodies), & testing. We learned that spread is rare outside..

that spread in schools is below surrounding communities, that air circulation (ex in airplanes) played a major role etc. Also learned surgical masks are effective at limiting spread, but cotton masks are very limited. More importantly, most people get infected at home where...

they aren’t going to wear masks anyways. Mask mandates have not correlated well with lower spread and that # will clearly go down more w Omicron.

We also learned there are really high economic, social, educational, etc. costs to many early measures that were not considered.

On vaccine mandates: Viewed it as something gov't shouldn’t have a role in (for or against). Case weaker w Omicron bc vaccinated still spread at a high rate. Argument would be to help w hospital capacity, but less critical with # unvaccinated & w/o natural immunity dwindling.

All of that knowledge and tools should have significantly shifted our approach. But too many viewed the previous measures as the new norm, refused to adjust to changes in the data, and can’t accept that the virus will not magically go away if you just do the right things.

It's also clear that some (health bueracrats and politicians) viewed the pandemic as an opportunity to grab power and enact changes theyr otherwise supported and they don’t want to give that up.

We now have to learn to live with the virus even during waves. Travel restrictions make no sense when it’s already everywhere. Shutting things down, especially schools has no real end goal and do little to stop a wave. You shouldn’t be doing asymptomatic testing.

If someone has symptoms, stay home. Get vulnerable vaccinated and protected. Then start treating it like we do the flu. Boosters available every year to whoever wants them, surveillance for large outbreaks, keep developing treatments, get people better access to at-home testing.

Anyways, just wanted to put my thoughts in one thread. It's really frustrating watching so many government officials and large platforms keep acting like it's March 2020 and trying to force that mindset on others. We need to face reality & move forward together.