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Arieh Kovler Profile picture
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21 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
A year ago I felt like I was shouting into the void about the impending Capitol riot. I couldn't understand why nobody was taking it seriously.
A year on, after a bunch of investigations, and I still don't feel like I have a satisfactory answer for how the FBI, Secret Service and local Law Enforcement missed what was going on.
The Capitol Riot as it happened was in no way the worst case scenario for Jan 6. The rioters could have captured Congressmen. They could have destroyed the EV envelopes, buying Trump his delay. They could have started shooting. Trump could have tweeted them to keep attacking.
On Jan 6, US Democracy got lucky. It was shown, Christmas Carol style, the Ghost of Elections Future. Unlike Scrooge, though, the political leaders on both sides didn't get the message.
I'm writing a bit about Jan 6 in the next Hat Tip later this week. Sign up for free. Or even better, subscribe to support my work! But free is good too. arieh.substack.com

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More from @ariehkovler

Arieh Kovler Profile picture
20 Dec
Another NFT thought: NFTs are all about art as a commodity. But the vast majority of artworks are not commodities or investments. They're stuff people buy because they like it and want it on their walls.
There isn't a single picture on my walls that would be worth less to me if other people had an exact copy on THEIR walls. I'm not an art collector, investor or speculator. I just want my living space to look nice.
Many thousands of artists create and sell art to people who like that art. But only a handful of artists have a secondary market where those works appreciate in value. Scarcity isn't the problem; secondary demand is.
Read 6 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
15 Dec
Seen a few people confused about this, so here's what I think Whitty's getting at about immunity in South Africa vs UK. Short thread:
The Delta wave in South Africa was intense. Limited testing capacity didn't show the full picture, but deaths mounted. By late September, Delta had burned through enough of the SA population that it had no exposed people left. Covid basically disappeared by October.
When Delta appeared in the UK in June, though, it spread quickly and carried on spreading. At times there were more or less infections, but Delta cases kept coming. The UK never reached a herd immunity threshold for Delta.
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
15 Dec
That is not enough to bend the curve. Maybe nothing short of a total lockdown is enough. The question then is what's the strategy? To bend the curve? To flatten it? To shift it right by a few days?
Not to say the Govt measures are bad. They might flatten the curve a little. Boosters will reduce the AOC though they're a few weeks too late.
We still don't know how bad an Omicron wave is in a population with very high previous vaccination/exposure. The options range from totally fine to complete collapse of the hospitals to anywhere inbetween. Makes strict measures politically hard to impose.
Read 5 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
14 Dec
According to the press release, Trump Media's TRUTH social network will run on Rumble's cloud service, which also supposedly, erm, exists.
Rumble's the "alt-tech" YouTube alterative that's been serving antivaxxers, election conspiracists and others banned from YT. Like Trump Media, Rumble is going public via a SPAC ($cfvi)
Rumble is making a play for the alt-tech stack — basically the same play Rightforge is making. "We're going to have our own datacentres and won't be reliant on Big Tech so we can keep anyone online".
Read 7 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
14 Dec
Conclusions from Discover Health's summary of Omicron in South Africa:
* Omicron seems to have an incubation period of 3-4 days, shorter than other variants.
* 'mild' cases are milder, with faster recovery times
* BUT more reinfections and breakthroughs, so many of those 'mild' cases wouldn't have caught it at all if it was Delta.
Omicron in kids:
*More are testing positive than in previous waves
* symptoms of sore throat, nasal congestion, fever for 2-3 days, sometimes a headache.
* more kids already in hospital with Omicron than at Delta peak.
Read 5 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
9 Dec
No surprise here, was pretty clear which way the panel was leaning. Doubtless Trump will appeal.
This judgment is technical at points, but it's very clear when it needs to be. ImageImageImage
oof. Image
Read 6 tweets

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