An update on the biggest story no one is talking about (at least in the US)
Through Dec 19, only 59% of European natural gas storages are filled. The labels show the % of storage filled at similar points in past years is closer to 77% on average.
59% is a 10-year low.
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As the chart below shows, the flow of gas from Russia to Europe is down considerably.
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In the last several days flows have essentially hit zero.
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With winter and cold weather coming, the price of natural gas is up more than 10x in the last year.
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And since natural gas is used in power generation, electricity prices are also soaring. Up 8x in a year, doubled in a few weeks.
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Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war.
The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Is the Administration pivoting to that mission?
Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk.
A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.
So, what price measures "persists for a year?"
🧵
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As the table below shows, crude oil futures prices for delivery into 2027 are trading in extreme backwardation.
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Below is the calendar spread between the first contract (now April) and the 6th contract (now September).
As the bottom panel shows, this spread is -25%, a record since the mid-1990s when the contract specifications were last changed.
Thoughts on market reaction to the Venezuela news.
tl:dr
The spigot in Venezuela waiting to be opened to flood the world with crude oil and lower its price has been broken for a while.
It will take several years to fix it.
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Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC their official statistics show its production (blue) is down 71% from its 1998 peak.
Its sustainable capacity (max output in within 90 days and held for a year) is 1M barrels/day (orange).
Venezuela is at its maximum now.
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Why the big production decline?
Socialist Hugo Chávez was elected in December 1998. He turned out to be a brutal dictator. Only to be replaced by an even more brutal dictator, Nicolás Maduro, when Chávez died in March 2013.