An update on the biggest story no one is talking about (at least in the US)
Through Dec 19, only 59% of European natural gas storages are filled. The labels show the % of storage filled at similar points in past years is closer to 77% on average.
59% is a 10-year low.
2/5
As the chart below shows, the flow of gas from Russia to Europe is down considerably.
3/5
In the last several days flows have essentially hit zero.
4/5
With winter and cold weather coming, the price of natural gas is up more than 10x in the last year.
5/5
And since natural gas is used in power generation, electricity prices are also soaring. Up 8x in a year, doubled in a few weeks.
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It turns out that the biggest soap opera in Trump's nominations is the Treasury Secretary. As the graphic below shows, it is as close to 50/50 as it gets.
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My Take
The Treasury Secretary gets to sit in the room and opine on policy. And their voice will be taken seriously.
But they do not set the policy; the President does. When the president says what they will do, they expect the Treasury Secretary to sell that policy as if it were theirs.
The second part, selling something they don't believe in but are told to do, is something Jamie Dimon will never do, so he will never be the Treasury Secretary. (Dimon wants to tell everyone else what they should sell).
Lutnick will sell whatever you tell him and do it with gusto! Bessert will do so too, but he does not command the room like Lutnick.
In other words, the Treasury Secretary is the administration's chief spokesman. This is a sales job, and it needs a salesperson.
The problem with Yellen was that she needed to be a better salesperson. Yes, she is an outstanding economist, but she was never a good spokesperson for the Biden Agenda.
She would have been a better National Economic Council head, the "smart person in the shadows advising the President."
If I had to guess ....
Lutnick = Treasury Secretary
Bessert = National Economic Council head
A good way to measure the perceived health of the US economy is to measure the public's ability to spend on things they want but do not need, aka discretionary spending.
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2/5
The Conference Board's survey of 3,000 Households asking whether they are planning a foreign vacation in the next six months.
This month, the survey hit another all-time high: 22% of US households say they will vacation overseas in the next six months.
3/5
A foreign vacation is something that absolutely nobody needs but absolutely everybody wants.
You only agree to potentially spend several thousand dollars if you are confident about your job,
investments, and the overall state of the economy.